NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/

UPDATE
As of 705 PM EDT, fair weather cumulus clouds are beginning to diminish and should give way to mostly clear and dry weather tonight with high pressure in control of the weather. Light to calm winds could result in some areas of patchy fog toward daybreak. No significant changes with this update.

Previous Discussion: As we lose daytime this evening, skies will clear quickly and temperatures will respond and cool off as the low humidity and light winds favor ideal radiational cooling. Tonight will be another good night to open up the windows. Leaned on the cooler end of guidance as dew points remain low in the mid to upper 50s. As temperatures approach their respective dew points, some patchy fog will likely develop in the favored valley areas.
Otherwise, expect cool and comfortable conditions tonight with lows reaching into the mid to upper 50s. Coolest in the southern Adirondacks where some upper 40s to low 50s are expected.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Large ridging and an omega block-like pattern over the Great Lakes will shift eastward through the weekend allowing our ~1020hPa sfc high to build further east, becoming centered over the Adirondacks/North Country by Sunday. This will promote continued dry conditions with the incoming ridge advecting in a warmer air mass into the Northeast. Morning sun tomorrow will again mix with diurnally driven cumulus clouds with 850hPa isotherms warming towards +13C to 15C. Northerly flow will maintain the dry column and thus support rather deep boundary layer mixing. This will allow temperatures to reach their full potential climbing further into the mid 80s for valley areas with higher terrain spots reaching into the upper 70s to around 80. Overnight lows Saturday should not be quite as cool as Friday night but still remain comfortable thanks to another ideal radiational cooling night falling into the mid to upper 50s with low 60s in the valley.

High pressure remains in control at the sfc for Sunday as our upper level ridging starts to transition into more of a rex- block pattern as a cut-off low from off the New England coast retrogrades inland and the upper level ridge shifts into Ontario/Quebec. Upper level low becomes more westerly supporting increased warm and moisture advection and thus result in even more warmer and more summer-like conditions for Sunday.
Expecting highs to reach into the mid to upper 80s (pockets of 90 possible where boundary layer mixing is deepest) for the valley with low to mid 80s for the higher terrain and hill towns. Humidity levels will also gradually increase as dew points slowly climb back into the 60s. Cirrus clouds associated with the coastal low will spread from east to west, reaching our western New England areas first Sunday afternoon before clouds spread further into eastern NY through the afternoon and evening. Still expecting a dry forecast through Sunday despite the increasing high clouds.

Clouds continue increasing Sunday night and with PWATs also trending upwards, it will feel muggier compared to previous nights. Overnight lows will thus be warmer with lows only reaching into the low to mid 60s (upper 50s in the higher terrain).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
We continue to monitor our cut-off over New England on Monday as it slowly pushes inland. Since it is rather slow moving, we still maintained a mainly dry Monday forecast with only slight chance and low end chance POPs reaching the Litchfield Hills and Berkshire County as sky coverage trends cloudier through the day. Guidance continues to suggests it will become vertically stacked and thus start to fill in/weaken as it tracks further inland by Tuesday with the latest trends now hinting that our upstream trough traversing the Upper Great Plains may help steer it more into northern New England. Should this trend continue, our POPs will trend downwards giving us a drier yet still cloudy forecast for Tuesday with showers more likely for western New England closer to the influence of its cold pool. However, there is still enough spread in the guidance that we maintained widespread chance POPs for Tuesday afternoon as the incoming cold pool combined with increased low-level moisture and humidity should easily support at least isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity during the diurnal peaking hours. Given PWATs nearing or exceeding 1.50", heavy downpours are possible during any thunderstorm.

By Wednesday, the weakening cut-off low finally escapes well to our north and east into the Canadian Maritime with mean upper level troughing from the Great Lakes shifting into the Northeast. While overall forcing and upper level flow is rather weak, humidity values remain high with PWATs ranging 2-2.5 standard deviations above normal as they approach or even exceed 2". We maintained widespread chance for much of the day with even low-end likely POPs by Wednesday afternoon as we reach the diurnal peak heating hours with general weak forcing and flow suggests that organized convection appears unlikely at this time. Regardless, heavy downpours remains a concern given high PWATs.

While the main parent upper level trough exits to our east by Thursday, the upper level flow still supports weak troughing aloft through the end of the work week and with high humidity and temperatures trending warmer, we maintained chance POPs for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures trend warmer by Monday with highs in the mid to upper 80s and increasing dew points in the 60s leading more uncomfortable conditions. Increased cloud coverage and chances for showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday should help reduce daytime highs a bit compared to Monday but southwest flow aloft ahead of the incoming trough will maintain high humidity values making it feel muggy/uncomfortable. Temperatures trend hotter for Thursday and Friday as westerly flow aloft advects an even warmer air mass from the Central CONUS eastward. Temperatures look to reach close to or even exceed 90 both days in valley areas. Given high humidity staying place, heat index values may approach heat advisory criteria (heat index values at or above 95F). This matches with the CPC 6-10 Day outlook that continues to message 70 - 80% confidence for above normal temperatures from August 1-5. We continue to message the potential for heat advisories in our hazardous weather outlook for the end of the work week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 00z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected for much of the upcoming TAF period as high pressure remains in control of the weather. The exception will be whether or not any patchy fog develops at KGFL/KPSF later tonight which could reduce vsbys to IFR/MVFR. Will maintain MVFR TEMPO with this TAF update due to low confidence in fog coverage. Otherwise, fair weather cumulus clouds at or above 6000 feet will diminish this evening and redevelop on Saturday.

Wind will light to calm tonight becoming variable in direction at less than 10 kt on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.