Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rensselaer, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:33PM Thursday February 20, 2020 7:02 PM EST (00:02 UTC) Moonrise 6:16AMMoonset 3:36PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rensselaer, NY
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location: 42.66, -73.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 202346 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 646 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure building into the region will bring fair weather through the weekend. Below normal temperatures through Friday night will moderate to above normal levels by Sunday. Unsettled conditions return for the early to middle portion of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 630 PM EST . Main issue remains with the wake of the lake clouds and some flurries across the Mohawk Valley. Latest RAP/HRRR suggest this may linger a couple more hours so made slight adjustments to the sky forecast, but, kept the PoPs/Wx grids in place. Otherwise, northerly winds down the Hudson River with some occasional gusts through this early Thursday evening. As the night progresses, both the clouds and winds will diminish as passage of upper trough and surface pressures rise.

Prev Disc, still some isolated/scattered snow showers and flurries, mainly across high terrain areas east and west of the Hudson River Valley and south of the Mohawk Valley, although some snow showers were also continuing across the southern Greens as well. For elevations below 800 feet in these areas, including the Capital Region, mainly clouds/virga with just occasional flurries. Temps range from the teens across the southern Adirondacks, to the 20s for most valley areas, except 30-35 across portions of the mid Hudson Valley. Brisk west to northwest winds continue at 10-15 mph with occasional gusts up to 25-30 mph.

For tonight, there could still be some lingering snow showers/flurries across the extreme western Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills, as well as portions of the southern Greens. Some scattered dustings (perhaps up to a few tenths of an inch) will remain possible where snow showers persist. Otherwise, as low and mid level winds begin veering slightly with the mid level trough passage, expect any snow showers or flurries to become confined to extreme southwest Herkimer County and possibly Schoharie County.

Elsewhere, skies should clear out later this evening for most areas north of I-90. This should set the stage for potentially bitter cold temps, given a cold, dry air mass in place, a deep snowpack, and winds trending to calm. Have undercut all guidance significantly across northern areas, although may not have undercut enough, with widespread forecast min temps of -10 to -20F expected, including within the Glens Falls area, assuming winds become calm for a long enough period. Temps could be locally colder. Elsewhere, still cold, but without the deep snowpack in place, and also slower decrease in wind magnitudes and clouds, have gone closer to NBM mins, which are generally between 5 below and 10 above.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. Friday, as low level winds back more into the southwest, some remnant Lake Effect clouds and flurries could graze portions of Herkimer/Hamilton Counties through early afternoon, especially northern portions. Elsewhere, generally mostly sunny skies are expected, and with a developing west to southwest flow, late day temperatures should moderate after the cold morning, with highs reaching 30-35 in valley areas from Albany south and east, with mainly 20s across higher terrain areas.

Friday night-Saturday, generally dry, although a weak shortwave passing north of the region and continued low/mid level warm advection could produce some low clouds across northern areas during Saturday. In fact, there is a possibility that much of Saturday could be mostly cloudy across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT, with some chance for low clouds extending into the Lake George/Saratoga region, at least for a portion of the day. Otherwise, chilly for Friday night although not quite as bitter as tonight, with lows in the single digits and teens, although some min temps between zero and 10 below can not be ruled out across portions of the southern Adirondacks and Lake George region. Late day highs Saturday should reach 40-45 in valley areas from Albany south and east, with mainly upper 20s to mid 30s elsewhere.

Saturday night-Sunday, some lingering clouds across northern areas Saturday evening, otherwise mostly clear/sunny conditions are expected, with milder temps. Lows Saturday night in the teens northern areas, and lower/mid 20s south and east. Highs Sunday should reach 45-50, if not warmer, for the Hudson River Valley from Albany south/east, and 40-45 for lower elevations to the north and west. Higher elevations across the Adirondacks and southern Greens in VT should reach 35-40.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. After an extended period of dry weather this weekend, the weather pattern becomes much more active heading into the final week of February. While we will see multiple chances for precipitation thanks to an amplified trough impacting the eastern CONUS, cold air is once again lacking, especially for the first half of the week. We will have to keep on Thursday as that may pose our best potential for a stronger system that may lead to elevation dependent snow. Read on for details.

We start the period off Sunday night into Monday with dry and mild weather from the weekend persisting. Surface high pressure shifts off the New England coast with deep, stregthening southwesterly flow advecting in above normal temperatures. Expect high temperatures Monday to rise well into the 40s to even near 50 in the Hudson Valley. Latest ECME and GFSX MOS guidance both point to temperatures near or just over 50 at most of our major climate sites (ALB, PSF, POU, DDH). Given the mild temperatures expected this weekend, the trend should continue so we showcase Monday as one of the warmest day of the upcoming mild stretch.

However, a weak shortwave looks to travel northeastward out of the Ohio Valley, spreading precipitation into eastern NY/western New England Monday night into Tuesday. Latest model guidance still shows some difference in both the track of the 500mb shortwave and its strength. The GFS and CMC-NH suggest the shortwave is more amplified, closing off up to 700mb, and thus producing much higher QPF amounts and track the surface low further west up the Saint Lawrence River Valley. However the ECWMF shows a much weaker shortwave which results in it tracking it further east from the mid- Atlantic into southern New England with a much lighter and more disorganized precipitation shield. Given the model discrepancies, we capped the POPs at chance for Monday night into Tuesday and with mild antecedent conditions and no blocking high pressure, current temperatures support mainly rain.

We should see a dry break on Wednesday as upper level ridging briefly ensues before the positively long wave trough over the Central CONUS amplifies and digs into Gulf Coast states. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that a potent shortwave at the base of the trough strengthens as it heads towards the Northeast as the overall trough becomes negatively tilted (mainly on the GFS and ECMWF). As forcing for ascent increases, a surface low looks to quickly develop with it tracking towards the Northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS seems to strengthen this disturbance much too quickly, showing it cutting off up to 500mb by 12z Thursday while the CMC-NH keeps the longwave trough neutrally tilted and thus does not develop a surface low at all. Although the ECMWF is not as aggressive as the GFS, it still shows a similar storm evolution with it maturing and cutting off up to 500mb by 18z Thursday so we leaned our latest forecast closer to it. While cold air is once again lacking, the impressive forcing for ascent from both the ECWMF and GFS produces a decent precipitation shield with the surface low quickly deepening below 990mb. Thus, it is possible wet-bulbing processes lead to higher elevation snow with rain/snow mix in the valley on Thursday.

As the cut-off upper level low exits into the Canadian Maritimes, the GFS and ECMWF show the system's potent cold front advecting in a much colder air mass Thursday night into Friday. With Lake Ontario still mild/above freezing, wrap around snow showers could transition into lake effect snow showers Thursday night into Friday. Below normal temperatures then look to arrive for the end of the week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR conditions as stratus deck should diminish along with those wind magnitudes into the evening hours.

Friday will continue with the VFR conditions as warm front upstream approaches. Some clouds associated with this feature may bring sct-bkn deck north of I90 during the afternoon hours. Winds will generally be at or below 10kts and from the westerly direction.

Outlook .

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of RA. SN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

HYDROLOGY. No significant hydrological issues are anticipated through at least Sunday with mainly dry conditions prevailing. Chances for precipitation will increase for the early to middle portion of next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . IAA/KL NEAR TERM . KL/BGM SHORT TERM . KL LONG TERM . Speciale AVIATION . BGM/Rathbun HYDROLOGY . IAA/KL

www.weather.gov/albany


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 45 mi92 min S 1 29°F 1029 hPa13°F
TKPN6 46 mi62 min N 8 G 12 28°F 34°F1030.5 hPa (+1.6)14°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY8 mi71 minWNW 16 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy24°F3°F40%1031.3 hPa
Schenectady Airport, NY17 mi74 minWNW 1215.00 miFair21°F3°F45%1030.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KALB

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmNW4CalmN5N4N4CalmNE3N4CalmCalmE3Calm--SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:23 AM EST     4.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:46 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:36 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:49 PM EST     5.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.5443.42.82.31.40.50.212.23.44.55.35.554.23.32.30.9-000.9

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:06 AM EST     3.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:15 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:17 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:32 PM EST     5.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:36 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:58 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.93.63.93.63.12.51.910.40.61.52.73.74.65.25.24.63.82.91.70.5-00.41.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.