Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rensselaer, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:23PM Thursday December 12, 2019 1:53 PM EST (18:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:57PMMoonset 8:31AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rensselaer, NY
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location: 42.66, -73.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 121752 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1252 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will allow for mainly clear skies today, but temperatures will remain rather cold. Clouds will increase for Friday with moderating temperatures. The next storm system will bring periods of rain to the region for Friday night into Saturday with milder temperatures. Colder weather will return for the end of the weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1235 pm, strong 1040 mb high pressure remains centered along the DCA-NYC corridor, resulting in tranquil but chilly conditions locally. There are still some remnant lake clouds over the western Adirondacks, but little to no precipitation is falling out of them. Elsewhere, there are areas of scattered cumulus and patches of high cirrus. The cirrus appears thicker on satellite imagery to the west, so we will increase cloud cover for the afternoon/evening especially from the Capital District northward.

Main forecast challenge for tonight will be cloud cover and temperatures. Return flow begins to develop as the high shifts east, but sheltered areas (mainly lower elevations not located in north/south valleys) still have the potential to decouple under the influence of the departing high. This potential will also depend on the degree of cloud cover. Will hedge slightly colder than the NBM for lows, closer to MOS guidance, anticipating the possibility of a quick drop in temps after sunset in areas where clearing in the cloud deck develops. The temps may tend to stabilize or rise a bit in north/south valleys overnight where a southerly wind develops.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Clouds will be quickly increase on Friday morning as the next system starts to approach from the south. This will be a southern stream system that will have plenty of Gulf and Atlantic moisture associated with it. A shortwave diving across the Mississippi Valley will allow low pressure to develop across the Southeast on Friday and lift northward towards the area for Friday night into Saturday. All areas should start off dry Friday. There may be an initial burst of warm advection that allow for some very light precip across southern areas for during the day Friday, but the steadier/heavier precip probably won't arrive until Friday evening or Friday night for the remainder of the area. This initial burst of precip for southern areas looks to be rain for most spots, but can't rule out some patchy freezing rain across the Catskills or high terrain of NW CT/Berkshires. Any amounts look very light and any ice looks brief with minimal impact. Temps will be warming through the 30s on Friday and continue to rise into Friday night. By the time the steadier precip arrives, all areas (outside some spots within the central and eastern Adirondacks and southern Greens) will be above freezing.

Steady rain is expected for Friday night thanks to warm advection and the approach of the low pressure area from the south. There could be a period of freezing rain across sheltered valleys of the Adirondacks or southern Greens, but impact looks very limited and amounts of ice should be just a tenth of an inch or less before temps rise above freezing. The steadiest rainfall looks to be from about Midnight through Noon Saturday. Temps in the 30s on Friday night will reach the upper 30s to upper 40s for during the day on Saturday.

As the low lifts by to the north, the precip will start to become more showery for Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Behind the storm's cold front, temps will be cooling, both at the surface and aloft, and this could allow some lingering wrap around precip to change over to snow across the Adirondacks on Saturday night. An inch or two of snow is possible for the highest terrain, but most areas will continue to just see showers of cold rain with temps falling into the 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The storm system that will bring mainly rain to the forecast area earlier during the weekend will be moving off to the northeast on Sunday. Some light precipitation will be lingering in the cyclonic northwesterly flow, mainly over the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. Enough cold air will wrap around the southwestern flank of the system to allow for much of this precipitation to be in the form of light snow showers, especially over higher elevations where some light accumulations may occur. Meanwhile, clouds will be lingering on Sunday across the Hudson Valley on Sunday, but most of the precipitation will be over. Temperatures will be near 50 over the mid-Hudson Valley on Sunday, but it will be turning colder across the north and west with highs only in the 30s over the Adirondacks. By late Sunday 850 mb temperatures will fall below -10 C and some lake effect snow will fall east of Lake Ontario into the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. High pressure will build toward the area later Sunday night, cutting off the lake effect snow west of the Hudson Valley by early Monday.

Monday will be a dry day as high pressure moves across the region. However, this dry period will be short-lived as another system appears to be poised to affect the area on Tuesday. There is some model disagreement with this system, as the GFS is forecasting a storm track from the Tennessee Valley toward the eastern Great Lakes, which would bring a mix of precipitation to our area. Meanwhile, the ECMWF/CMC consensus takes the low farther to the south and east off the mid-Atlantic coast, which would bring snow, mainly to the southern half of the area. The models have been consistent with this discrepancy for the past several runs. At this point, we are leaning toward the more southern solution so we are favoring snow over rain with this system, although uncertainty will remain high until the models come into better agreement. Regardless of this track, the storm should be east of the area on Wednesday, with cold northwesterly flow and scattered snow showers.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Strong high pressure will produce VFR conditions through most of tonight. As the high departs a southerly flow will develop across TAF sites. Some differences among the models when precipitation arrives on Friday. The NAM is most aggressive bringing in precipitation to at least KPOU and possibly KPSF in the 12z-18z range. Temperature profiles are cold enough for mixed precipitation if the NAM proves correct. With only the NAM offering light precipitation, have included a couple hours of VCSH at KPOU at the end of the TAF period.

Outlook .

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy Likely SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact Windy With Gusts To 31.0 Chance of SHRA. SHSN. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.

HYDROLOGY. For today into tonight, dry weather is expected across the region thanks to high pressure. Some rivers (such as the Housatonic River) remain elevated due to recent rainfall and snow melt. However, colder temperatures and dry weather should allow for river levels to continue to slowly lower and recede over the next 24 hours.

The next storm system will be moving from the south for Friday into the weekend. Although Friday will start off dry, rain will be spreading into the area during the day or evening from south to north. The steadiest rainfall looks to occur for late Friday night into Saturday morning. Rainfall will taper to showers and may change to snow showers for the high terrain for Saturday night into Sunday.

Total rainfall with this system appears to be about 0.75 to 1.25 inches, with some locally higher totals possible across the high terrain. This will allow rivers and streams to once again rise. Milder temperatures returning with the rainfall may allow for some additional runoff due to snow melt as well.

At this time, MMEFS suggest that most rivers should remain within their banks. There is a low probability (about 10% at this time) of some flooding along the rivers of western New England for the weekend. However, any change in the QPF forecast or temperatures (which would increase snow melt) could increase the threat for flooding.

Behind this system, colder and drier weather will return for Monday. The next system could approach by Tuesday, but precipitation is mainly expected to be snow with that system.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frugis NEAR TERM . Thompson SHORT TERM . Frugis LONG TERM . MSE AVIATION . OKeefe HYDROLOGY . Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 45 mi83 min SW 1.9 29°F 1039 hPa13°F
TKPN6 46 mi59 min S 1 G 2.9 30°F 35°F1040.4 hPa10°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY8 mi62 minNW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F10°F45%1039.6 hPa
Schenectady Airport, NY17 mi3.1 hrsWNW 810.00 miFair55°F12°F18%1040.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KALB

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS7S5S6S6SW5W11
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W14NW11W7W3N3CalmS4CalmCalmW7W6W3CalmNW3
1 day agoNW16
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W12W9NW8NW10W9NW5W8W8W7W5N4
2 days agoCalmS7S14
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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:49 AM EST     4.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:21 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:06 PM EST     5.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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01.12.43.33.94.13.62.61.610.4-0.10.11.32.94.35.15.55.24.22.91.91.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:32 AM EST     3.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:52 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     5.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:38 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.62.73.43.83.83.12.11.30.80.2-00.61.93.44.55.15.34.83.62.51.60.80.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.