Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ipswich, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:05PM Monday October 14, 2019 9:19 PM EDT (01:19 UTC) Moonrise 6:51PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 716 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 4 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming E 25 to 35 kt after midnight. Seas around 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 5 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front swings across the waters this evening. High pres builds over the waters Tue. A strong low pres system will track across southern new englands coastal plain Wednesday night. The system will likely become a gale center as it moves to the maritimes Thu. Strong W to nw winds will develop behind the storm Thu. Diminishing northwest flow continues for Fri into Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ipswich, MA
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location: 42.68, -70.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 142245
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
645 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
Dry and pleasant fall-like weather continues into Wednesday
morning. Storm system moves up the coast Wednesday and crosses
se new england Wednesday night, bringing rain and wind to our
area before moving off during Thursday. High pressure builds in
with cool, breezy conditions during the day and possible
frost freeze conditions Friday night Saturday morning.

Conditions modify to seasonable over the weekend as high
pressure moves overhead. The next chance of wet weather comes on
Monday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
645 pm update...

low clouds linger across the north shore and south shore and are
in and out of logan airport in boston. Low clouds also linger
across CAPE cod and islands with dense fog at nantucket
airport. There ia also an area of higher clouds in northwest ma.

The clouds are associated with a weak cold front approaching the
region.

Satellite imagery shows the clouds on the south shore, cape,
and islands are slowly pulling offshore. The clouds along the
north shore have been moving inland toward lowell and lawrence.

We will need to watch for some patchy fog developing across
southeast new england this evening with light winds lingering low
level moisture.

Extrapolation of the cold front shows it moving through the ct
valley 8-10 pm, through the central hills 9-11 pm, and the
eastern coast 11 pm-1 am. This should bring a wind shift out of
the northwest, flushing the low-level clouds fog humidity
offshore.

Low temperatures by daybreak should be mainly in the 40s, but
some upper 30s are possible across western ma.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Tuesday...

high pressure will build in from the west and result in a mostly
sunny tranquil day. High temperatures will top out in the lower 60s
in most locations. That coupled with light winds will make for a
very nice fall day across the region.

Tuesday night...

high pressure overhead will set the stage for an ideal night of
radiational cooling. Light winds mainly clear skies will allow
overnight low temps to bottom out well down into the 30s in many
locales. A few of the normally coolest outlying locations may drop
to or even just below freezing. Frost and freeze headlines will
need to be considered where the growing season has not yet
officially ended. The urban heat islands of boston providence will
bottom out in the 40s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Big picture...

broad closed upper low moves off through northern quebec. But a
shortwave over western canada slips into the vacated space over the
great lakes and closes off, re-establishing a southwest upper flow
over new england. The great lakes low then sweeps east over new
england Thursday. A shortwave moves ashore from the pacific late
week and digs over the rockies and plains, bringing another
southwest upper flow to our area for the weekend.

Contour heights are near normal Wednesday, but drop well below
normal Thursday as the upper low moves overhead, then climb above
normal for the weekend. Average heights for mid-october range from
567 decameters to 571 dm.

Some differences in placement of the coastal storm Wednesday-
Thursday. High confidence that the storm affects us and on the two
major effects, but low-moderate confidence on the magnitude of those
effects. The mass fields are similar through the weekend with
moderate confidence in the forecast.

Daily concerns...

Wednesday-Thursday...

shortwave feeding around the great lakes upper low heads east to the
coast, generating a coastal low along the carolina coast Wednesday.

The coastal low then moves north up the coast. Main concern is the
path the storm follows... Many details determined by that path. The
gfs continues to carry the path east of CAPE cod as do its ensemble
members, while the 12z ggem tries to bring it up the ct valley. The
12z ECMWF moves it through the coastal plain while the NAM follows
the east ma coastline. This forecast favors an eastern solution,
although probably not as far east as the gfs. Something along the ma
coast or coastal plain seems reasonable.

Starting time in the late afternoon afternoon rush hour, with
heaviest rain occurring during the heart of the night, then
tapering off midday Thursday.

Main concern is wind. NAM shows easterly low-level winds (850 to 925
mb) up to 40 kt by Wed evening and 80-90 kt overnight, diminishing
Thursday morning. Ggem is a smidge less but still strong and with
similar timing. The 12z ECMWF shows 50-60 kt extending to the
coastal plain. The GFS shows 45-55 kt and mainly offshore. These
suggest gusts of 35 to 55 kt at the surface. We will use this
as a guide for the forecast, 35 to 50 kt at the surface.

Coastal marine areas could reach a little higher.

Second concern is rain. Pw values climb to around 1.5 inches along
the CAPE and islands and 1 inch in western ma. The system will be
progressive, so not expecting widespread flooding, although brief
urban poor drainage concerns Wednesday night in ri and SE mass.

Models show a dry slot moving up to the south coast. This may
interrupt showers for a few hours Thursday morning. Upper low and
cold pool move overhead Thursday, and may generate more showers
during the day, especially north of the mass pike.

Showers should taper off Thursday night as the upper low moves off
to the east.

Friday through Monday...

possibly a lingering shower Friday morning, but high pressure
surface and aloft move in from the west. This means drier air
moving in at that time so we expect a clearing trend for Friday and
mostly clear skies Saturday and Sunday as the high moves overhead.

Light wind and drier air... Dew points 35-40... May bring min
temps of 35 to 40 in interior SRN new england.

Next weather system in the midwest spreads rain our way on Monday.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ...

tonight... Moderate to high confidence.

Lingering ifr lifr along the ma east coast including logan
airport and CAPE cod islands in a light moist southwest flow. A
cold front entering the berkshires at 6 pm will move across srn
new england early tonight, moving offshore of boston and the
cape 11 pm to 2 am. Expect any ifr lifr to be pushed offshore
when that happens. Winds shift out of the northwest behind the
front.

Tuesday and Tuesday night... High confidence.VFR conditions
expected with light winds.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf. Low clouds were noted
at 630 pm with bases at 200 feet. Coverage may vary through 10
pm or 11 pm, but should move offshore by that time.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible afternoon.

Breezy. Ra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy
with gusts up to 35 kt. Ra, chance shra.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds
with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance shra.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday through Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Tonight... A cold front crosses the waters late tonight. Behind this
front a period of NW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots along with 4 to 5
foot seas should develop across our far eastern waters. Will hoist
a small craft headlines for our far eastern outer-waters after
midnight.

Tuesday and Tuesday night... Any lingering marginal SCA conditions
diminish by mid morning Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the
west. This should result in winds seas below small craft thresholds
the rest of Tue into Tue night.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Wednesday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 45 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain, chance of rain showers.

Thursday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Friday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 am to 10 am edt Tuesday for anz250-
254.

Synopsis... Wtb frank
near term... Wtb frank
short term... Frank
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb frank
marine... Wtb frank


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 18 mi76 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 56°F 57°F3 ft1012.7 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 23 mi80 min SSE 7 G 7 56°F 1013 hPa (+1.2)56°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 25 mi90 min SSE 9.7 G 12 57°F 58°F3 ft1012.5 hPa (+0.8)57°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 25 mi56 min 60°F 57°F1012.6 hPa
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 26 mi95 min ESE 1.9 57°F 1013 hPa56°F
44073 28 mi136 min SSE 3.9 G 3.9 56°F
CMLN3 28 mi196 min NW 8 57°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 36 mi42 min 58°F4 ft
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 41 mi76 min SSE 5.8 G 5.8 56°F 57°F4 ft1013.2 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 46 mi50 min N 1.9 G 1.9 57°F 59°F1013.9 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 48 mi80 min N 1 56°F 55°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi90 min S 5.8 G 7.8 56°F 3 ft1013.6 hPa (+1.2)56°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA8 mi27 minS 40.25 miFog56°F55°F100%1013.3 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA16 mi26 minN 02.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist57°F55°F96%1014.5 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA23 mi26 minSSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds60°F55°F86%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBVY

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW33S6SE7SE6SE8SE7SE7SE8SE6SE8SE6S4
1 day agoCalmCalmW4W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5NW8NW103CalmSE8E4SE6SE3SE3CalmSE4
2 days agoNE15
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Tide / Current Tables for Plum Island Sound (south end), Massachusetts
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Plum Island Sound (south end)
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Mon -- 12:09 AM EDT     8.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:22 PM EDT     9.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:57 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.88.57.45.53.41.70.70.61.73.6688.98.87.96.13.920.70.20.92.64.97.1

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:30 AM EDT     -1.20 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:03 AM EDT     1.61 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:50 PM EDT     -1.29 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:26 PM EDT     1.49 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1-0-0.8-1.2-1.2-1-0.9-0.20.61.11.41.61.30.3-0.6-1.1-1.3-1.1-1-0.60.311.21.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.