Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 10:53 PM   Moonset 6:43 AM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 261136 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 736 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions today with a warming trend lifts temperatures into 60s.

- Showers arrive overnight with a chance for a few embedded thunderstorms through Saturday morning.

- Breezy southwest winds develop Saturday afternoon with gusts up to 30 mph.

- Some additional thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening with an isolated severe storm possible northwest of Metro Detroit.

- Additional showers and a few storms are possible Sunday as above normal temperatures continue through mid-week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected through today. Surface high pressure to the east will influence weather conditions bringing southeast winds at around 10 knots and dry conditions through the daylight hours. Low pressure over the plains will send a warm front into the region bringing increasing mid and high clouds late this afternoon into the evening before scattered showers and possible thunderstorms arrive tonight. Light rain showers move in around 03Z with the greater thunderstorm by around 06Z and through the early morning hours. MVFR ceilings will also accompany the better low level moisture tonight through tomorrow morning while winds turn more southerly with gusts to around 20 knots towards 12Z tomorrow morning.

For DTW/D21 Convection...A warm front will approach late tonight/early Saturday morning with increasing instability aloft.
This will also support a chance of thunderstorms, likely embedded within the broader pattern of scattered to numerous showers. Chances for thunderstorms will be around 30 percent and focused mainly between 08Z and 12Z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in thunderstorms tonight into early Saturday morning.

* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight into Saturday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 427 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

DISCUSSION...

Unobstructed cooling and nearly clam winds through the overnight period have sent temperatures into the low-mid 30s across much of the CWA with light ESE flow. High cirrus streamers spilling downstream of a potent shortwave trough closing off over eastern Colorado will begin to interfere with outgoing longwave radiation.
This should limit further cooling to just a few more degrees (F)
until the diurnal rebound gets underway. Will allow the Frost/Freeze headlines to run their course as dew points remain below freezing.

Minor height rises expected through midday as the resident southern stream ridge builds into its northern stream equivalent. Stubborn anticyclone flow then lingers to the east, offering sustained stabilization that temporarily resists top-down saturation processes. Once upper winds back westerly, clouds will work in aloft while the low cloud fraction lags amidst longer duration southeasterly flow. A very broad and highly confluent LLJ featuring impressive latitudinal extent should fold/rotate into southern Lower Michigan this evening providing a shift to southwest flow and aggressive ThetaE convergence. Ultimately, this keeps conditions dry through nearly the entire daylight hours before the sufficient column moistening is achieved. Thermodynamic moderation also gets underway with 850 mb temps increasing by at least 6C by 18Z suggesting highs in the lower 60s, near climatological normals.
Cooler readings are anticipated along the coastal communities, downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Huron from on-shore southeasterly flow.

By nearly all accounts, showers should hold-off for Southeast Michigan until after 00Z when isentropic ascent commences. This leading arc of showers then transitions to more dynamically forced activity packets of CVA stream through the perturbed mid-level flow with the moistened environment. Forecast soundings reveal some elevated instability above the warm frontal slope, therefore a few rumbles of thunder are possible, late.

The mature low exhibits minor pressure rises Saturday as it tracks across the Upper Midwest and merges with the central Canadian trough. Current models suggest a delayed cold FROPA until late Saturday night with a rather dry afternoon. Westerly flow trailing the composite shortwave lends some degree of column drying as lapse rates improve slightly. Did bring PoPs down quite a bit to reflect this trend south of I-69. Main threat for broader coverage of thunderstorms exists across the Tri-Cities INVOF the stalled frontal boundary, higher dewpoints, and SBCAPE. Questions exist regarding afternoon cap erosion per NAM3km/ARW, but a Marginal Risk for severe weather persists. Much warmer conditions arise with highs in the mid- upper 70s in addition to +25 mph gusts.

The active pattern continues Sunday as another wave ejects out of the synoptic subtropical jet which reinforces southwesterly ThetaE advection and continued warmth. Several more rounds of showers are possible Saturday night and Sunday with the persistent forced ascent and Gulf-augmented humidity. Some NWP drift now points to more activity occurring over central Lower during the afternoon. Little in the way of cooling mechanisms into Monday as the influence of the departing ridge lingers until Tuesday. High pressure then anchors over the coast of the southern Atlantic which maintains a component of return flow into the midweek timeframe and warmer than normal temperatures through the period.

MARINE...

Strong low pressure moves from the central Plains to the upper Midwest today and then across Lake Superior on Saturday. The strengthening pressure gradient ahead of this system results in southeasterly flow ramping up today, peaking late Friday night into Saturday morning. Wind veers southerly on Saturday with gusts touching gale force during the morning before gradually weakening through the day as much warmer air moves into the region to stabilize flow over the cold lake water. The warm air also fuels thunderstorm potential through Saturday and Saturday night, and possibly even into Sunday as the associated cold front stalls over the region. The front awaits yet another low pressure system moving in from the Plains Sunday into Monday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ047-053-054- 060>062-068-069-075.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ048-049-055-063- 070-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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