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LEZ041 Expires:202405190330;;442759 Fzus51 Kbuf 182032 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 432 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-190330- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 432 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
Tonight - West winds less than 10 knots. Areas of fog. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Light and variable winds. Areas of fog in the morning otherwise partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - West winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Light and variable winds. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - South winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 190713 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 313 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure extending from the Labrador Sea and the Canadian maritimes back across our region will generally keep fair dry weather in place through at least the beginning of the new work week. More notable will be the summer like heat that we can look forward to, as the mercury in most areas will climb WELL into the 80s for the Monday through Wednesday timeframe.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
While fair dry weather will be in place throughout the region overnight, as was expected lingering low level moisture is encouraging fog development, especially across areas west of the Genesee Valley. Expansion of the fog can be seen quite nicely on Nighttime Microphysics satellite. It will stay on the mild side of average with lows mainly in the mid and upper 50s.

After early morning fog and stratus dissipate, mainly dry weather is expected Sunday as a mid and upper level ridge starts to build overhead. There will be an outside chance for some diurnally driven scattered showers across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes with a weak lingering surface convergent boundary in place. High temperatures should peak in the mid to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A mid and upper level ridge will become anchored over our region this period, with mainly fair weather and building warmth.

A shortwave trough will ripple through this ridge over Canada Monday night, possibly bringing a shower down into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Otherwise moisture left behind this shortwave may aid in development of a few spot showers or thunderstorms along a strengthening lake breeze boundary Tuesday afternoon. Subsidence with the ridge aloft should keep any activity isolated.

The southwesterly flow will steadily increase temperatures aloft at 850 hPa, such that at the surface most areas will see day to day warming of a degree or two. By Tuesday, 850 hPa temperatures of +14 to +16 will yield widespread 80s, and perhaps a few 90 degree readings in the Genesee Valley. The exception will be northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario where the southwest flow off the cool Lake waters will hold back the heat for metro areas of Buffalo and northern Watertown.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Low pressure tracking from Lake Superior to Hudson Bay will place our region in the warm sector for much of the day Wednesday. With SSW downslope flow will hedge on the warm side of guidance with highs 85 to 90 across lower elevations, including Buffalo and Rochester. 12Z model consensus brings a cold front through Thursday evening, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms likely Wednesday night with the frontal passage.

Possibly a lingering shower behind the front on Thursday with afternoon temperatures still slightly above normal despite the cold frontal passage. After this, weak high pressure will build across the region resulting in mainly rain-free weather Thursday night through Friday night. A secondary cold front will approach the region Thursday night, and may pass through all or part of the area Friday and into the weekend. Lower confidence in temperature forecast for this time period, with forecast highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s representing a consensus of model guidance. These could be 5 or more degrees warmer or cooler depending on the position of the front. Chances of showers with the front will remain low, but a stray shower can't be ruled out on Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions expected east of Lake Ontario (KART) right through Sunday with solid mid level decks remaining in place through the remainder of the overnight. Meanwhile conditions deteriorate from east to west south of Lake Ontario, with the worst conditions (VLIFR/LIFR) across the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) and far southwestern NYS (KJHW) where VSBYs have fallen to a quarter mile over the past 1 to 2 hours. Nighttime Microphysics satellite shows the denser fog expanding inland from the western Lake Ontario and eastern Lake Erie shorelines. Lower Genesee Valley will likely be in between VFR to the east and VLIFR to the west, so the battle at KROC will be between the formation of fog versus stratus.

Heading into Sunday, low stratus and fog over western NY will slowly improve to VFR through the mid to late morning hours. Widespread VFR conditions then expected for Sunday afternoon and evening, although there may be a stray shower or rumble of thunder toward the upper Genesee Valley during the afternoon.

Outlook...
Monday and Tuesday...mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
A highly saturated air mass will continue over the lower Great Lakes tonight allowing for fog and stratus to expand over the Lakes with poor visibility conditions possibly becoming widespread late tonight into the first half of Sunday on Lake Erie and the western end of Lake Ontario with light flow.

Otherwise, light winds with minimal wave action expected on the lakes through Monday.

South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front through the Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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