Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Angola on the Lake, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Cool but relatively dry weather Sunday through Tuesday with frost potential Sunday and Monday night.

2) Unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week with periods of rain Wednesday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool but relatively dry weather Sunday through Tuesday with frost potential Monday night.

A longwave troughing pattern will remain overhead across the Great Lakes and into New England Sunday through Tuesday supporting a cool airmass to linger across the region, resulting in daily high temperatures to average around 10 degrees below average through the start of the week. Clear skies and light winds each night (Sunday and Monday) will support radiational cooling and result in temperatures to plummet into the 30s supporting the threat for frost and freeze conditions. Frost will likely form away from the lakeshores, with freeze conditions possible in the colder Southern Tier valleys and across Lewis County. Please note the remainder of the forecast area enters their growing seasons on May 11th.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week with periods of rain Wednesday through Thursday.

A potent shortwave trough will dive and rotate through the longwave trough by Wednesday, likely evolving into a mid-level closed low settling in across the Great Lakes by the middle of the week. This being said, chances for rain will increase from west to east late Tuesday night through Wednesday as this system nears. Chances for precipitation will continue into the end of the week as the trough and closed low slowly departs east.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Light showers, generally with VFR visibilities, but MVFR ceiling heights will pass across our region overnight. All together these showers will exit east of KART by 12Z. Behind a cold frontal passage winds will veer to west to northwest overnight, though within a light surface pressure gradient field lake breeze circulations will develop late in the period with SW winds northeast of the Lakes.

Outlook...

Sunday... MVFR CIGs improving to VFR.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday.. MVFR/IFR with showers and a few thunderstorms.

Thursday...IFR/MVFR improving to MVFR/VFR with showers ending through the day.

MARINE
A cold front will work from west to east tonight supporting continued choppy conditions through Sunday, with potential for low end small craft advisory levels on the east end of Lake Ontario Sunday afternoon.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.