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LEZ041 Expires:202404181515;;951432 Fzus51 Kbuf 181049 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 649 am edt Thu apr 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-181515- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 649 am edt Thu apr 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening - .
Today - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Areas of dense fog early. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast and diminishing to 10 knots or less. A chance of showers overnight. Waves subsiding to 2 feet or less.Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Showers. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Friday night - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Saturday - West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.Monday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 181750 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 150 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers will gradually end from west to east through the rest of today as weak high pressure briefly builds into the eastern Great Lakes. A cold front will move east across the area Friday, bringing another round of gusty showers to the region. There will be one more round of scattered showers Saturday afternoon, then dry weather will return for Sunday. The weekend will be quite cool with a stretch of below average temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Radar imagery showing a few areas of scattered showers and drizzle early this afternoon. A well defined mid level trough and associated low level occlusion will continue to move east across the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon through early evening, supporting the area of ongoing showers east of Lake Ontario. These showers will gradually weaken and end this evening. Meanwhile across Western NY, lingering low level moisture and low level convergence driven by lake breeze influenced low level wind fields and terrain will continue to support a few spotty showers through the rest of the afternoon.

Weak surface high pressure will drift east across the area this evening before reaching New England overnight. This will provide a brief period of dry weather tonight, with partial clearing this evening before clouds increase again from west to east overnight ahead of the next system. Lows tonight will be in the mid 40s in most areas. These lows will occur around midnight, with rising temperatures towards Friday morning as southerly flow increases ahead of the next system.

Friday, another sharp mid level trough and cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes. A brief period of ascent and low level convergence associated with this feature will support a band of showers arriving in Western NY during the morning, then spreading east to the eastern Lake Ontario region by afternoon. The main band of showers will be narrow and brief, although there may be a few more scattered showers popping up both in front of, and behind the main band of rain. Instability is minimal, but a fairly strong wind field aloft may allow a few of the showers to produce gusty winds even without thunder.

A 50+ knot low level jet will be found in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Ascent ahead of the mid level shortwave and poor low level lapse rates will keep much of this aloft, but there may still be gusts above 30 mph Friday. Temperatures will briefly rise into the upper 50s to low 60s just ahead of the front, then begin to pull back in the afternoon as cold advection increases.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Broad troughing overhead of the Great Lakes Friday will continue to push into the lower Great Lakes by Saturday morning. This longwave trough will then remain overhead of the Great Lakes throughout the weekend. Within this troughing pattern a shortwave trough will pass through the longwave pattern supporting some active weather for the start of the weekend.

A shortwave will begin to round the base of the trough Friday night, supporting a the low pressure system over northern Ontario to strengthen and gradually move into central Quebec by Friday night.
By Friday evening, rain showers will be exiting the North Country, while a dry air mass fills with the approaching surface ridge.

The aforementioned potent shortwave will then round the base of mid- level trough and cross the area Saturday. This will support a secondary cold front to pass across the region starting Saturday morning with an uptick in rain shower activity Saturday afternoon.

A broad area of surface high pressure will then push into western and north central New York Saturday night through Sunday. While this will promote mainly dry weather across the region, the longwave mid- level trough axis overhead will promote cool temperatures. Highs Sunday will range in the upper 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure ridged across the Ohio Valley and Upper Great Lakes at the start of this period will build eastward across our area Monday...then will slide out across New England Monday night while a low-amplitude mid-level trough and attendant surface low push across the Upper MidWest and Upper Great Lakes. The high will provide us with a plenty of sunshine and high temps recovering to near-normal levels in the mid 50s to lower 60s on Monday...with fair dry weather then continuing Monday night...albeit with a general increase in cloud cover out ahead of the next system. With a milder airmass and general south to southwest flow in place...lows Monday night will be milder than those of the previous couple of nights...with mins ranging from the mid 30s across interior sections of the Southern Tier and North Country to the lower 40s across the lake plains.

While some differences persist in the details...the medium range guidance remains in good general agreement on pushing the above mentioned mid-level trough and associated surface reflection eastward and across the Great Lakes and Northeast between Tuesday and Wednesday. This system will bring our next general opportunity for some showers...with a current model consensus suggesting the peak of these coming between later Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night...followed by sharply diminishing pcpn potential/coverage on Wednesday as Canadian high pressure and notably colder/much drier air builds in behind the departing surface low. While some guidance continues to suggest the potential for the incoming colder airmass to be cold enough to provoke a lake response Wednesday...the combination of its rather dry nature and strong late April diurnal influences will help to prevent the development of much more than some cloud cover.

After that...the aforementioned surface high will continue to build across our region Wednesday night and Thursday...with plentiful dry air and subsidence attendant to the ridge providing us with dry and uneventful weather through the end of the period.

With respect to temperatures Tuesday through Thursday...expect slightly above normal temps (upper 50s-mid 60s) to prevail on the warm side of the system on Tuesday. Following the passage of its trailing cold front...temps will fall back to below average levels in the 40s on Wednesday...with steady or falling temps possible during the day depending upon the strength of the cold advection regime behind the low. A chilly night with lows around the freezing mark will then follow for Wednesday night...before sunshine and airmass modification allow highs to recover a bit into the upper 40s to mid 50s on Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A trough east of Lake Ontario will continue to move away from the region this afternoon and evening, with scattered showers gradually ending from west to east. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue through late afternoon or early evening before improving to mostly VFR tonight. High pressure will bring a brief window of dry weather and mainly VFR overnight through early Friday morning.

Another mid level trough and cold front will move east across the area Friday, with an associated area of showers arriving in Western NY in the morning, then spreading to the eastern Lake Ontario region by afternoon. A few of the showers may contain brief periods of moderate rain and associated brief/local VSBY restrictions. CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR and local IFR along and just behind the cold front late morning through afternoon Friday.

Southerly winds will increase Friday morning, then veer to the southwest to west Friday afternoon behind the cold front. Wind gusts may reach 25-30 knots ahead and behind the cold front.

Outlook...

Saturday...MVFR/VFR CIGS with a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with showers becoming likely in the afternoon.

MARINE
A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes Friday. South winds will increase ahead of the front late tonight and Friday morning, then veer to the southwest and west Friday afternoon behind the front. This will likely produce a brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario midday Friday through Friday evening.

Winds will remain elevated this weekend, with Small Craft Advisory conditions at times on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The strongest winds will likely be in the afternoon and evening each day.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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