Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 9:32 AM   Moonset 12:36 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LEZ041 Dunkirk To Buffalo Along Lake Erie- 1045 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
Rest of today - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers late this morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms early this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 131842 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 242 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will move across the area this afternoon with some showers and a thunderstorm possible. This front will usher in a period warm and unsettled weather which will last through the middle of the week. After this, a weak high pressure ridge will provide warm and mainly rain-free weather outside of a few afternoon showers.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Daytime heating behind a warm front and a more moist air mass will result in some diurnal instability across Western New York late this afternoon. This will support some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms with the greatest chances from the Genesee River Valley to Western Finger Lakes region. Meanwhile, across far Western New York, showers will end with a partial clearing developing as a weak lake shadow develops in the moderate southwesterly flow. It'll be warmer with highs in the 70s across western NY to the mid to upper 60s east of Lake Ontario.

The warm front will stall from the north shores of Lake Ontario to the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight. Chances of showers will linger near the boundary, while the bulk of Western NY will be rain free. Temperatures will fall to the 50s tonight.

The frontal boundary to the north will slowly sag southward during the day Tuesday. Limited diurnal instability will develop across Western NY, with showers and a few thunderstorms developing Tuesday afternoon. The greatest coverage will be south and east of Lake Ontario with slightly lower chances on and along its immediate shorelines. Precipitable water values nearing 1.25" not too far above climatological normals, but weak flow aloft will result in slow storm motion. The potential exists for repeated rainfall which could be heavy at times with any convective activity. Modest PWAT values lower the risk for flash flooding, but the risk is non-zero.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A 500 hPa trough will pass across the Ohio Valley and the mid- Appalachians Wednesday and Wednesday night. While most of the showers associated with this feature will be to our south, there will be a easterly flow of Atlantic moisture into our region that will bring scattered showers through the day Wednesday. Highest chances for showers will be to our east, closer to the deeper Atlantic moisture, but also along a convergent boundary. This boundary, southeast flow around the trough aloft, and northeast flow from a incoming area of high pressure, will serve as a boundary for likely PoPs through the afternoon, and into the evening hours. The light flow could lead to some patches of fog Wednesday night in areas where daytime rain occurred.

Highs Wednesday will reach towards 70 near the Lakes, while inland and under deeper moisture and rain showers...mid 60s. Temperatures at night will dip down into the mid 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A progressive flow aloft with impulses and shortwaves rippling through will maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms this period, with the best chances for showers and even a rumble of thunder Friday night and Saturday with a trough passage.

To start this period, Thursday will be mostly dry, with low PWATS and a narrow ridge of high pressure nearby...this between an east coast low, and trough across the Plains. However there is a possibility that a few showers from the east coast low sneak far enough westward into our eastern CWA

This western trough, and its additional lift, will push eastward, likely in the Friday night to Saturday timeframe. Will place likely PoPs with the trough passage, along with a slight chance for thunder with MUCAPE values around 500 J/KG ahead of the trough. Behind the trough lowering chances for precipitation, through a secondary trough dropping out of Canada may bring chances for showers Sunday.
Temperatures Thursday through Saturday will average just above normal, and then the final two days of this period, Sunday and Monday will be even warmer with a milder airmass pushing northward.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A warm front will exit north and east of the region later this afternoon. Behind the front, diurnal instability will support some showers in the wake of the warm front, with a few isolated thunderstorms possible. Southwesterly flow will result in a rain-free lake shadow developing across the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) later this afternoon. Overall widespread VFR flight conditions, except localized MVFR possible in vsby restrictions in any showers or thunderstorms.

Dry weather for most locations tonight as the frontal boundary lifts northward. Some showers may linger near KART which will be closest to the boundary. Mainly VFR flight conditions for tonight through Tuesday morning. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms increase with instability Tuesday afternoon.
Mainly VFR with localized IFR in heavier showers and thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR in showers, stratus, and fog.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers, along with lingering stratus. Improving later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Thursday...VFR.

Friday...VFR. A chance of showers late.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

MARINE
Moderate southwesterly flow today, but winds will be strongest on the land due to lake breeze enhancement. Winds on the waters expected to remain below Small Craft criteria. After this weak there will be a relatively weak flow, with winds expected to remain below 15 knots through Friday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Buffalo, NY,