Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elmwood Park, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:18PM Monday December 9, 2019 3:38 AM CST (09:38 UTC) Moonrise 3:59PMMoonset 5:15AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 306 Am Cst Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through late tonight...
Early this morning..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Areas of fog. Drizzle likely. Waves around 1 foot.
Today..South wind 5 to 10 knots veering southwest late in the morning, then rising to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the afternoon veering west 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots late in the afternoon. Areas of fog in the morning. Drizzle likely in the morning. Chance of drizzle late in the morning, then drizzle likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..West wind 15 to 25 knots veering northwest late in the evening, then becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots after midnight backing west 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of drizzle and slight chance of light freezing drizzle through around midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots backing west late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201912092200;;079839 FZUS53 KMKX 090906 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 306 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-092200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elmwood Park, WI
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location: 42.7, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 090533 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1133 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

UPDATE. Patchy light DBZ showing up on KMKX WSR-88D but have yet to see any drizzle reported at ASOS/AWOS. Did receive a report from incoming employee of very light drizzle on windshield. Expanding area of thicker clouds spreading north. Temps and dewpts rising accordingly, but possibly some light drizzle may fall on pavement that will be slightly below freezing. Fortunately, the more expansive light precip should hold off until later tonight allowing some time for pavement and surface temps to warm a bit.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS). MVFR ceilings spreading across southern WI, and should overspread the area next several hours. Still expect ceilings to lower to IFR as low level convergence increases resulting in areas of light rain and drizzle developing. Temps in the north may not have time to warm above freezing before the light drizzle develops, which could result in a light glazing later tonight. Pockets of dense fog may also develop late tonight into Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 931 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019)

UPDATE . Clearing over the northern areas has allowed temps to fall into the 25 to 30 degree range in some areas. Meanwhile, farther south, temperatures remain in the mid 30s to around 40. As the low level winds increase from the east to southeast, deeper low level moisture should spread across southern WI during the night. Along with the thickening clouds, temps should bounce back into the 30s. The increasing convergence should also result in areas of light rain and drizzle developing after midnight. Still a concern that pavement and surface temperatures will be hovering around freezing in the northwest areas including the WI Dells when the light liquid precip begins late tonight or early Monday. Not enough confidence at this point to post an Advisory, so will be keeping a close eye on this potential through the late night.

MARINE . Winds will turn from the north to the east to northeast overnight across the northern part of Lake Michigan, north of a low pressure boundary setting up over the southern part of the lake. Lighter south to southeast winds will persist over most of the southern open waters. Gusty north to northwest winds can be expected in the wake of passing low pressure later Monday into Monday night.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 557 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019)

UPDATE . Increasing low level convergence along strengthening low level trof and increasing low level moisture should result in areas of light rain and drizzle developing overnight. Will need to keep a close eye on pavement and low level temperatures overnight. Partial clearing across the northern CWA has allowed temps to fall into the low to mid 30s early this evening. Temps may even fall a few more degrees before stabilizing and then increasing later in the night as the deeper low level moisture pushes across the area. Never the less, temperatures in the far north may remain around freezing, increasing the threat for a period of light freezing rain or drizzle that may affect the Monday morning commute. Expect low clouds and areas of fog to accompany the light rain and drizzle overnight.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) . Expect low IFR ceilings to spread across southern WI overnight along with areas of light rain and drizzle. Fog will accompany the light precipitation. The fog could become localized dense.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 225 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight - Confidence . Medium A frontal boundary sagging southeast from northern WI will gradually weaken somewhat, however as low pressure approaches from the central Plains, there will be an increase in low level moist advection with a lingering 850 baroclinic zone. Would expect stratus/fog/drizzle to evolve later in the night. The meso models show this with very light precipitation developing in the southeast and then advancing north/northwest throughout the area. By and large it looks like the cloud cover streaming northeast should keep temps from falling off too much. The far northwest cwa would be most vulnerable to any freezing potential very late in the night and the confidence of this is too low to issue any advisory at this juncture.

Monday and Monday night - Confidence . Medium After the initial moisture surge there may be a lull in precip for a time before the mid level energy and cold front bring another round of precipitation. Low clouds/fog and perhaps some drizzle will linger with broad surface/850 low in the area. As colder air air works in there will be the potential for some mix and then a change to all snow. Accums still look on the light side with any amounts an inch or less and more towards the northern portion of the forecast area during the afternoon and early evening. Some drying in the dendritic growth zone may result in some patchy freezing drizzle at times. Precipitaion will shift quickly Monday evening with the cold advection on northwest winds becoming prevalent.

LONG TERM .

Tuesday through Thursday Night - Confidence . High A deep upper level trough will allow arctic air to impact the area Tuesday through Wednesday night. Highs will mainly be in the teens to low 20s with overnight lows in the single digits to near zero towards central Wisconsin. Wind chills during this time will single digits and teens during the day and below zero overnight. Dry air will be in place with sunny skies until a shortwave moves through northern Wisconsin Thursday. Some light snow will be possible Thursday afternoon towards central Wisconsin but better chances are farther north. Warmer temperatures are expected Thursday with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s and wind chills in the single digits to teens.

Friday through Sunday - Confidence . Medium The pattern becomes more active in the extended with signs for a few shortwave troughs moving through. There is some uncertainty with the track and timing of these waves that could bring some rain and snow to the area. Have some slight chances in for now. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 30s with cooler temperatures for Sunday as a cold front moves through.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS) . VFR conditions expected into early this evening. High level cloudiness continues to stream wsw-ene. Lower ceilings well to our northwest behind frontal boundary. Still expecting light rain or drizzle to develop across the area esp after 06z or so. Cigs/vsbys will be heading down as airmass continues to moisten up, so some LIFR conditions are quite plausible very late tonight into Monday. Precipitation will trend to a mix and some light snow Monday afternoon into the early evening as colder air wraps in behind a cold front with precip likely to wind down rather quickly. With the loss of ice crystals during this time some spotty freezing drizzle is possible as well.

MARINE . Pressure gradient slackening as trough approaches from central WI. Gale warning has expired and will let the small craft advisory do the same at 21z. Next focus will be the uptick in winds on Monday evening in the wake of the cold front. Northwest winds may gust high enough to warrant the need for a small craft advisory Monday night, but at this time it looks as if the open lake gusts would remain below gale criteria.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . mbK Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine . mbK Monday Night through Sunday . RAR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi39 min S 8 G 8.9 40°F 1003.7 hPa (-3.4)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi59 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 40°F 1006.1 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI4 mi46 minS 42.50 miFog/Mist42°F39°F92%1004.6 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI11 mi46 minSSE 44.00 miFog/Mist45°F43°F93%1003.9 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI19 mi47 minN 01.50 miFog/Mist42°F39°F92%1004.1 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL20 mi44 minS 75.00 miFog/Mist44°F41°F89%1003.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRAC

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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SW10S7SW7SW4SW3CalmCalmE3E4CalmE3S4S4
1 day agoSW8SW8SW8S5S6S8SW9SW11SW11
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2 days agoN13
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N11N11NE9NE7NE3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmSW4SW4S4CalmSW3SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.