Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 12:14 AM   Moonset 8:31 AM

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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 906 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
.dense fog advisory in effect until midnight cdt tonight - ..small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening - .
Rest of tonight - South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Areas of dense fog through the night. Showers likely just before midnight. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning. Monday - South wind 10 to 15 knots veering southwest with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Monday night - West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot. Tuesday - West wind 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then backing southeast late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 290310 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1010 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers this evening, with another round possible around daybreak on Monday. Severe storms and any flooding is very unlikely.

- Another round of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder Tuesday evening/night. A stronger system with additional showers / thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday, possibly continuing into Friday.

- Above normal temps likely Monday through Thursday, cooling off towards normal this weekend.

- Dense fog is likely over our nearshore waters during the overnight hours. Some dense fog may occur inland in lakeshore adjacent counties overnight.

UPDATE
Issued 953 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Forecast details largely remain on track. Some fog has occurred on a more on and off basis along the lakeshore from Kenosha through Sheboygan as marine fog has been advected inland on northeast to southeast winds. Winds right now are at a relative minimum with a warm front stalled over the area. Currently vis has generally improved from Milwaukee southward, with fog now more prevalent over Sheboygan, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties.

CAM soundings show fog generally continuing through the overnight hours along the lakeshore north of Milwaukee with conditions improving around daybreak tomorrow. We'll monitor visibilities for more widespread visibility drops, rather than confined pockets. This'll lend more confidence regarding the issuance of a dense fog advisory.

CMiller

SHORT TERM
Issued 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Tonight through Monday night:

Fog has redeveloped from MKE to ENW and should spread nwd along the lake as the stalled front moves nwd as a warm front. The fog will be dense nearest to the lake cannot rule out a Dense Fog Advisory. Otherwise occasional lgt showers and drizzle should continue via 925-700 mb warm, moist advection and frontogenesis.
Moist adiabatic lapse rates and very minimal elevated CAPE will greatly limit the thunderstorm threat into the early evening.

For tnt the low over ern NE will move toward se MN while it occludes, which may prevent the warm front from lifting entirely into central WI. A n-s band of showers and storms is expected to develop ahead of the upper wave and large dry slot rotating around the upper low. This band of showers and storms should move newd into srn WI from 02-08Z, but lapse rates remain very poor with very minimal MUCAPE. The SVR storm threat is very marginal and near the IL border.

The cold front or occluded front will then pass Mon AM into the early afternoon, while the low pressure area tracks from se MN to wrn Lake Superior. Mild temps are still expected with the stronger cold advection holding off until the evening. a few lingering showers are possible especially along the front. Temps will drop into the lower to middle 40s by sunrise Tue.

Gehring

LONG TERM
Issued 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Tuesday through Sunday:

Dry and clear conditions expected Tuesday, with temperatures climbing to near 70 degrees. Light winds may shift onshore from Lake Michigan during the afternoon hours, keeping temperatures cooler in those regions. Southerly winds increase Tuesday evening ahead of a trough swinging through the region Tuesday night, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms to the region. Generally expecting elevated instability to be the main driver of lightning potential.

After the main trough propagates northeastward Wednesday morning, a developing system in the lee of the Colorado Rockies allows for warm frontogenesis across Iowa into southern Wisconsin late Wednesday, bringing additional rounds of showers. A few elevated thunderstorms are again possible as the warm front lifts northward into central Wisconsin overnight. Continuous WAA will keep temperatures above normal into Thursday.

Thursday, low pressure propagates into the Upper Midwest, bringing best chances for thunderstorms as southern Wisconsin remains firmly in the warm sector with strong southerly winds bringing in continued warm temperatures. Modeling diverges in solutions for Friday into Saturday, with faster models indicating cold frontal passage Friday morning and therefore clearing conditions into Saturday. Slower modeling solutions, specifically the GFS, indicate continuing overrunning precipitation through Saturday.
However, modeling generally agrees that southern Wisconsin will be well within the northwesterly flow by Saturday, returning temperatures to normal through Sunday.

Gehring

AVIATION
Issued 1010 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A mixture of VFR to LIFR ceilings currently exist over southern WI with visibility down to a quarter mile generally north of Milwaukee along the Lake Michigan shoreline. Fog and low ceilings are generally expected to continue into the overnight hours, with on and off chances for rain showers. Winds will be light and southerly overnight and there may be a brief period of southwesterly wind shear to 45 knots from now into the early morning as winds ease below an exiting jet aloft. Winds tomorrow will grow southwesterly and breezy in the afternoon.

CMiller

MARINE
Issued 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A stalled front is draped across the southern end of the lake today. Low pressure around 29.7 inches over northeast Nebraska will track to southeast Minnesota by Monday morning. The low will bring the front north to central Lake Michigan this evening with winds shifting from northeast to southeasterly. Areas of dense fog may then form over southern and central Lake Michigan during this time. Brisk east winds will continue over far northern Lake Michigan through the night and into Monday with a few gale force gusts possible. Modest southwest winds will then prevail Monday night into Tuesday. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters from North Point Lighthouse to Winthrop Harbor until midnight. Another Dense Fog Advisory may be needed north of North Point Lighthouse late this afternoon and evening.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Monday.

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