Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elmwood Park, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:02PM Sunday August 9, 2020 5:49 AM CDT (10:49 UTC) Moonrise 11:09PMMoonset 11:39AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 506 Am Cdt Sun Aug 9 2020
Today..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing south late in the morning, then rising to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then rising to 10 to 15 knots after midnight veering north early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:202008091600;;168593 FZUS53 KMKX 091006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-091600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elmwood Park, WI
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location: 42.7, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 090828 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SHORT TERM. (Issued 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020)

Today and Tonight:

A few showers and storms over northeast parts of the area will exit in the next hour or so, as a shortwave trough moves east across the area.

Otherwise, there will be a brief period of ridging in place over southern WI this morning, which will help keep things dry. By this afternoon and evening, there will be a trough moving through SD into MN. With dewpoints expected to be in the lower 70s and steep lapse rates expected aloft, there will be support for CAPE values of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg, with the higher values found towards central and northern WI.

During the evening hours, the low level jet will begin to move into the area, which could give some additional low to mid level shear, especially for areas toward central Wisconsin. It is anticipated that an MCS should initiate this afternoon somewhere from northern IA to southeast MN, and track towards southern WI. With both hires and global models struggling with how to handle this pattern, we have to take the guidance with a grain of salt, and stick to the main synoptic forcing for a look at what we can expect. This introduces uncertainty with were the storms will initiate, and how they will propagate into southern Wisconsin.

With continued WAA and a cap in place today, this should limit some of the surface-based convection. As the inversion aloft begins to break down during the evening hours (as the trough moves across northern WI), some convection could dive south along any moisture or instability axises. This could support some strong to severe storms for southern WI. The main hazard with any severe storms would be damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall.

Apart from the thunderstorm risk today, temperatures will be close to 90 degrees with high humidity. The heat indices will range from the lower to middle 90s across southern WI.

Patterson

LONG TERM. (Issued 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020)

Monday through Monday Night:

Models continue to agree on brining cold front southeastward through the area Monday, exiting to the southeast by early to middle Monday evening. Will continue to have chances for showers and thunderstorms during this time, with decent low level frontogenesis response. Ignored the 00Z NAM output, which seems to be out to lunch with its excessively high QPF Monday afternoon and evening.

It is noteworthy that the CAMs are not showing much in the way of convective development with the frontal passage Monday afternoon. The main 500 mb shortwave trough remains well north of the area during this time. There is some upper divergence from the right rear quadrant of a jet streak that moves over the region Monday afternoon, which would help with upward vertical motion.

GFS forecast soundings are again showing a fairly strong cap for mean layer and surface-based parcels Monday, which may be reflected in the CAM output. There remains uncertainty with the amount of cloud cover from tonight's possible convection lingering into Monday, which would limit high temperatures and mean layer CAPE values. This may also affect heat index values Monday, which may reach the middle 90s with some sunshine in the southeast parts of the area.

Above the cap, there is plenty of mean layer CAPE, with deep layer bulk shear of 25 to 30 knots. Thus, some strong to severe storms could develop, if there is enough warming and upward vertical motion in the low levels to break the cap. Activity later today into tonight will have an influence over what may occur on Monday with the frontal passage.

High pressure moving into Iowa Monday night will gradually bring lower dewpoints into the area, as well as dry conditions.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night:

High pressure will move across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. This should bring quiet weather to the area, with pleasant summer temperatures.

Wednesday through Saturday:

High pressure will gradually move east of the region Wednesday into Friday. Zonal flow at 500 mb will gradually weaken, with a shortwave trough trying to move east through or south of the region Friday. The influence of the high, with its anticyclonic flow in the low levels, may be enough to keep the area dry for the latter half of the week, possibly into Saturday.

Models and ensembles are trending somewhat drier during this period, due to the influence of the high to the east. So, reduced PoPs a little later this week to reflect this trend. There is some confidence that current PoPs may need further reduction or removal in later forecasts for this period.

Temperatures should remain in the lower to middle 80s each day, with dewpoints slowly increasing. Somewhat cooler temperatures should occur each day near the lake, with onshore winds.

JJW

AVIATION. (Issued 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020)

For the 12Z TAFs:

VFR conditions are expected through much of the day today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and affect portions of southern WI through the evening. There is uncertainty and low confidence in the timing and impacts expected for the terminals with these thunderstorms. South to southwesterly winds will persist through the period.

Patterson

MARINE. (Issued 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020)

Southerly to southwesterly winds are expected today into Monday, and could be gusty at times. There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms moving across the lake late this afternoon through the overnight hours, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The winds will shift behind the cold front on Monday to northwesterly.

Patterson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi109 min SW 5.1 G 6 75°F 1017.3 hPa (-0.0)
45187 14 mi29 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 72°F 1 ft
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 22 mi39 min SW 7 G 9.9 74°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 23 mi109 min SW 8 G 12 76°F
45013 28 mi49 min S 9.7 G 14 74°F 69°F1 ft1017 hPa (+0.0)
45174 40 mi29 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 74°F 72°F1 ft1017 hPa70°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 41 mi29 min SSW 9.7 G 12 73°F 71°F1017.1 hPa73°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi69 min W 1.9 G 7 76°F 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI4 mi56 minSW 510.00 miFair74°F70°F88%1017.1 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI11 mi56 minWSW 510.00 miFair73°F69°F87%1016.7 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI19 mi57 minSW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F70°F88%1016 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL20 mi54 minSW 810.00 miFair73°F69°F87%1015.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRAC

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6S7S8SW11SW10
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S63SW7SW7SW4SW6SW7SW9SW8SW7SW6SW5
1 day ago--------------S10SE9S12
G19
S8SE7SE9SE7SE5SE5S3S3SW3S3CalmS4S5SW5
2 days agoNW4NW3CalmE8E8E8E7E7E8E8E8E8E8E4E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.