NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 705 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 4 2023
Tonight..Southwest wind 5 to 15 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight. Chance of showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..West wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering northwest with gusts to around 20 knots in the late evening and early morning, then backing west with gusts to around 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..West wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Slight chance of waterspouts in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 042057 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 357 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SHORT TERM
(Issued 355 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023)

Tonight through Thursday night:

Mesoanalysis indicates just over 1000 j/kg of CAPE over our eastern CWA, and CAMs indicate that a few showers and weak thunderstorms may develop there, tapping into about 35 kts of effective shear courtesy of the overlying jet streak, but there is only a slim chance anything can develop before daytime heating shuts off. Diurnal cumulus are currently scattered over the land CWA, the only towering cu are over the warm waters of Lake Michigan. Showers and thunderstorms may be confined to Lake Michigan tonight. The current southerly winds will subside and turn west behind the cold front, which is expected to move clear of the CWA by Thursday morning.

Dry weather will prevail Thursday, with daytime highs in the low 70s expected. The stronger cold air advection will not begin until Friday.

Sheppard

LONG TERM
(Issued 355 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023)

Friday through Wednesday:

A much cooler airmass will move in by Friday behind the cold front. Skies will be mostly cloudy during the day Friday, with a chance for showers also as the main trough moves through. Breezy west to northwest winds will keep it feeling even cooler, as high temps are likely to only reach the mid to upper 50s most places.

It's looking dry Saturday as the trough exits. Any lake effect showers that develop will remain offshore given the northwest winds in the lower levels. Even with a fair amount of sunshine, temps will struggle into the mid-50s for highs.

Dry weather is expected to persist early next week as the surface high lingers. Temps will be slow to recover under northwest flow, with highs eventually returning to near normal by mid-week. The cooler airmass may also result in some patchy frost at times Friday night through Tuesday night.

DDV

AVIATION
(Issued 355 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023)

Scattered diurnal cumulus around 5 kft should dissipate tonight, leaving just the 10 to 20 kft clouds for the overnight hours.
Shower and weak thunderstorm chances have diminished since the last AFD issuance, but remain a possibility this evening into tonight, especially for airports in Kenosha, Racine, and Milwaukee counties. This has been excluded from TAFs due to low probability.

VFR will prevail tonight and tomorrow. Current southwest winds will diminish and turn west tonight due to a passing cold front, becoming breezy again Thursday afternoon.

Sheppard

MARINE
(Issued 355 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023)

Low pressure of 29.2 inches over Ontario will deepen and move northeast across Canada through the later half of this week. A cold front associated with this low will sweep eastward, moving over Lake Michigan tonight and Thursday, exiting the lake Thursday night. Southerly winds will subside and turn westerly tonight as the front crosses, and thunderstorms will be possible. The highest thunderstorm chances are over the southern third of the lake late tonight into Thursday morning. Gusty northwest winds arrive Friday with winds potentially nearing gale strength Friday night through the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances return across the lake this weekend with a potential for waterspouts.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Milwaukee, WI,