Saturday, August8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Readsboro, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:05PM Saturday August 8, 2020 7:44 AM EDT (11:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:46PMMoonset 10:37AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Readsboro, VT
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location: 42.71, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 081124 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 724 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak upper level disturbance will move across the region today bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms, though most of the region will remain dry. Very warm to hot weather with uncomfortable humidity levels for much of the upcoming workweek. Limited storm chances Monday and Tuesday, with better chances on Wednesday through Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 7 AM Update:

Though most are generally partly to mostly cloudy, a couple trouble spots early this morning. Water- vapor imagery shows shortwave disturbance aloft over eastern NY fostering some early-day scattered showers across the Berkshires, with some thunder being noted across southern VT. Expect scattered showers and thundershowers to eventually develop across the interior as the shortwave trough moves across New England. However not anticipating any stronger storms today with only a limited window to destabilize.

Meanwhile, a passing surface low SE of Nantucket is leading to onshore NE/ENE flow across eastern MA and the South Coast. Areas of low clouds and fog were still prevalent across the South Coast and the Cape and Islands and should continue to be thru mid-morning. Did increase sky cover a bit here with this update. However, already seeing modest improvement and expecting most areas here to scatter out.

Forecast otherwise looks to be on track.

Previous discussion .

Zonal flow across the Northern USA with two shortwaves embedded in that flow moving across New England this weekend.

The first shortwave was moving into New England this morning and will cross the region during the morning and early afternoon before moving off through the Maritimes. Cold pool aloft moves through with the shortwave axis. The cold advection as the pool approaches will mean destabilization and increasing instability. CAPE values vary among the models, but agree on 400-600 J/Kg during the late morning and early afternoon. Indices such as the total-totals are forecast in the upper 40s and around 50 at that time. CAMS models show scattered convection firing over NW Mass this morning and early afternoon. With the cold pool moving off later in the afternoon, the resulting warming aloft would work against convection firing late in the day.

Favor chance pops for scattered showers/thunder in the interior.

Light flow with high pressure centered over Northern New England supports a light east flow across the region, a sea breeze flow in Eastern MA. This will keep high temperatures lower along the coast. Temps at 850-mb will be 13-14C, supporting max sfc temps in the low to mid 80s, especially in the CT River Valley. It is possible mixing goes a little higher, which would allow max temps a couple of degrees warmer. Meanwhile the sea breeze should keep coastal areas in the 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Shortwave ridge overhead and surface ridge both suggest subsidence and dry weather tonight. Dew points in the 60s suggest similar values for min temps across the region, although urban areas may remain around 70 or low 70s. Dew points in the 60s will be noticeable but not oppressive.

Another shortwave moves through the flow on Sunday. Much of its curvature will be focussed on Nrn New England, which suggests any potential for showers would be well to our north. Expect mostly sunny skies. Temps at 850-mb will be a little higher, around 15-16C, so expect max sfc temps in the mid to upper 80s inland, cooler near the shore. If mixing goes a little higher, the normally warmer spots could touch 90.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Highlights .

* Very warm/hot weather with uncomfortable humidity levels for much of the workweek. Monitoring for heat advisories. Potential heat wave in some locations.

* Limited t-storm chances Mon-Tues, better t-storm coverage mid to late week with slow-moving cold front.

Details .

(1) Temperatures/Humidity

Main story for a good part of the upcoming workweek is the return to hot and humid weather. Potential heat wave in some locations (at least 3 straight days of 90+ high temps), but a multi-day heat wave also is in the cards if high temps overachieve on downslope flow Sun and/or if we can eke out any 90-degree days toward mid to late week. Heat Advisories may be needed if it looks more obvious that we'll reach the consecutive days of >95-99 F criteria.

Only significant break from the heat/humidity arrives toward the end of the workweek with a slow-moving cool front. Models have trended slower with its passage with each successive run, so that break in the heat continues to be kicked further down in time and is now looking more like Friday. 850 mb temps around +16 to +18C should be common through Thursday, though more in the way of cloudiness and rain chances by mid to late week that could keep some or all areas from reaching 90 degrees (widespread mid/upper 80s, possible low- 90s). With more sun than clouds Mon and Tues, those project as the warmest days (mid 80s to lower-mid 90s). Coolest highs will be near the South Coast and the Cape/Islands given SW flow (and resulting in potential for a few days of early-day fog/mist with higher moisture levels coming in). Little relief at night as well with muggy lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

In terms of humidity levels, hottest of the days (Mon/Tues) are still fairly humid but should have slightly lower dewpoints mix in during the aftn. By midweek, somewhat lower high temps amid more clouds and rain may be offset by oppressive low to mid 70s dewpoints areawide. The need for Heat Advisories in parts of the upcoming week still is in consideration but not clear if or on which days we'll reach the consecutive days criteria. Nonetheless, it's going to be uncomfortable to oppressive even if heat indices fall just short of headline criteria.

(2) Precip/Thunder Chances

To begin the week (Mon/Tues), shower/storm chances are looking more limited due to background subsidence. Any storms likely mesoscale- forced (near sea-breezes and terrain). Really similar look to model soundings across the region both days: strongly-heated PBL with significant mid-level dry air and fairly limited CAPE values. Thus t- storm coverage and strength thru early-week looks limited, but any storm that were to develop would likely be slow-moving and be capable of localized downpours given weak flow (< 20 kt speeds thru entire depth of atmosphere). Most areas are dry much of the time, but any town(s) that do get a storm stand to get at least a temporary reprieve from the heat.

Mid to late-week offers the best chance for greater t-storm coverage across a larger portion of Southern New England, due to deeper vertical moisture profiles combined with the very slow approach to the cold front. Most global models indicating the best upper-level forcing remains locked in northern New England/adjacent Canada and mid-level flow trending more parallel to the boundary. There's some guidance that keeps the front from really clearing our area until late Fri. Will continue to focus higher PoPs toward the Wed thru Fri timeframe. Too unclear/uncertain at this time range if we'll be looking at any strong to severe storms in this timeframe. One concern which I'll also mention in terms of generalities into the mid to late week is localized heavy-rain footprints, given the high PWAT air and that we could be potentially dealing with successive day(s) of somewhat better shower/storm chances.

AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today: High confidence.

MVFR-LIFR fog/stratus from overnight to improve to VFR by midday. Will see VFR conditions for most this afternoon, though SCT SHRA/TSRA in the Berkshires to ORH could produce brief restrictions between 15-21z. Light Northeast to East winds expected through the day.

Tonight: Moderate confidence.

Generally VFR. Will have to watch the South Coast and the Cape for return to IFR-LIFR stratus/fog. Timing and how far north sub-VFR conditions advance isn't clear but suspect lowering conditions after midnight for the South Coast and the Cape, potentially to PVD as well.

Sunday .

VFR with fair weather.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night through Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance TSRA, slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

MARINE. Weak high pressure to the north will keep overall winds on the light side, favoring east winds and a sea breeze along the Mass East coast. High pressure shifts south tonight and Sunday, bringing a shift to winds out of the southwest. Winds Sunday may be light enough to allow a sea breeze to again form, but confidence is low on this possibility.

Not expecting wind/sea conditions to exceed small craft advisory thresholds.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Loconto NEAR TERM . WTB/Loconto SHORT TERM . WTB LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . WTB/Loconto MARINE . WTB/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 68 mi75 min Calm 66°F 1021 hPa65°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 99 mi57 min NE 1.9 G 4.1 71°F 76°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Adams Harriman-and-West Airport, MA9 mi53 minE 36.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist66°F64°F96%1022 hPa
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT18 mi51 minESE 310.00 miOvercast67°F63°F87%1021.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAQW

Wind History from AQW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE53CalmCalmSW5CalmCalmE4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
1 day ago------------Calm44N3--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:31 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:00 AM EDT     4.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:54 PM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:32 PM EDT     4.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.40.90.30.31.22.53.64.24.44.13.22.11.20.6-0.1-0.40.21.52.93.74.24.23.6

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:21 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:52 AM EDT     4.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:44 PM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:24 PM EDT     4.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.40.80.20.41.42.73.74.34.4431.91.10.5-0.2-0.40.41.833.84.24.13.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.