Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Williams, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:21PM Thursday December 5, 2019 5:20 PM EST (22:20 UTC) Moonrise 2:20PMMoonset 1:11AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williamstown CDP, MA
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location: 42.71, -73.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 052152 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 452 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. Snow showers early this evening will diminish tonight. Then, an Alberta Clipper will bring a widespread light snow event during the daytime tomorrow with some impacts to the evening commute expected. High pressure returns for the weekend leading to dry and cooler conditions.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 4PM, bands of light snow showers and flurries are moving across the eastern Catskills, Schoharie County, the southern Berkshires and Litchfield County, CT. Some flakes are also being observed in the Hudson Valley but they are not accumulating. Temperatures are generally in the upper 20s in the eastern Catskills and Schoharie County and with additional snow showers upstream in Central NY, we added some minor snow accumulations to these higher terrain areas through 00z Friday. Otherwise, snow showers should diminish in coverage tonight as subsidence builds aloft.

Partial clearing tonight combined with a deep snow pack should help temperatures cool down into the upper teens to low 20s. Clouds increase in coverage from west to east after 06z tonight ahead of our approaching Alberta Clipper.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. A potent shortwave progresses towards Lake Erie and Lake Ontario by 12z Friday with warm air advection increasing over New York as the surface low's warm front advances into the region. Isentropic lift intensifies quickly over eastern NY after 12z which should allow snow to overspread the region from west to east by mid-late morning Friday. An area of enhanced 850-700mb FGEN looks to develop midday into the early afternoon hours along and north of I-90 and the latest HREF guidance shows increased probabilities for greater than one inch per hour snowfall rates for the Mohawk/Schoharie Valley into the Upper Hudson Valley and southern VT and the northern Berkshires. BUFKIT sounding from GFL also shows good lift through the dendritic snow growth zone during this period suggesting the potential for moderate to heavy snowfall rates. The BUFKIT sounding from ALB shows the the dendritic snow growth zone higher up in the atmosphere and may be higher than the layer with the best lift. Areas south of I-90 should see snow at the onset of the event Friday morning but snow should mix with rain towards midday/early PM as the warm nose impinges up the Hudson Valley and into NW CT. Some areas could even turn dry.

While initial snow ratios for areas along and north of I-90 should be high (15-17:1) leading to a lighter/fluffy snow at the start of the event, snow rates could decrease (11-13:1) heading into the afternoon as warm air increases aloft. Surface temperatures during the event should struggle to warm given the fact that snow begins in the morning and wet-bulbing diabatic cooling processes should limit the diurnal spread. Generally expecting highs along and north of I-90 to only reach into the upper 20s to near 32. However, areas south of I-90 which get into the warm sector should rise into the mid-30s.

The best warm air advection exits western New England by mid- afternoon which should end the chances for moderate/heavy snowfall rates. The cold front associated with our Alberta Clipper quickly pushes through the region towards sunset with snow ending from west to east early evening. Winds could also turn breezy with gusts 15-20mph in the wake of the front. Impacts to the evening commute are possible from this event especially in areas where roads and/or sidewalks are untreated.

Total snowfall amounts expected to range 1 to 3 inches with up to 4-5 inches possible in southern Vermont, northern Berkshires and northern Taconics. We have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for these areas. Heading south of I-90, we could see a tight gradient set-up south of Capital District as snow totals decrease quickly where the warm nose impinges into the ALY CWA. Generally expecting snow amounts south of I-90 to range from coatings up to an inch. Higher amounts of 1 to 2 inches in the eastern Catskills and southern Berkshire County.

After some scattered lake enhanced snow shower activity Friday evening, expecting gradual clearing and drying Friday night as high pressure builds into the Northeast. Dry and cooler weather returns Saturday and Saturday night. High temperatures Saturday in the upper 20s to low 30s with overnight lows turning much colder. Clear skies and a deep snow pack should facilitate radiational cooling with lows falling into the single digits and teens.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Coming soon.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Upper level trough will remain over the region into early this evening. Scattered lake enhanced snow showers are expected from around KALB to KPSF later this afternoon into early evening. Occasional/brief deterioration to MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible within any snow showers. Best chance for IFR will be at KPSF. Snow showers expected to remain far enough away from KPOU/KGFL to omit mention in TAFs.

Snow showers will end by around 00Z, with VFR conditions prevailing overnight. Mid level clouds will increase late tonight ahead of a clipper type system approaching from the Great Lakes. This system will bring widespread mainly light snow to the KALB/KPSF/KGFL terminals starting late Friday morning. Steadier snow should set up north of KPOU, so will only mention VCSH there. Vsbys will quickly lower to IFR levels once snow commenced between 15Z-16Z.

Surface winds will be west-northwest around 10-20 kt, with gusts around 25-30 kt at KALB/KPSF. Winds will become west-southwest overnight, gradually decreasing to around 3-5 kt late. Winds will become southerly around 4-6 kt Friday morning.

Outlook .

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.

HYDROLOGY. Temperatures will remain below normal through Sunday, so little melting and/or runoff is expected through the next several days. A period of light snow is expected on Friday. This will allow the snow pack to be maintained and for some ice to build on shallow waterways, especially during the overnight hours.

Temperatures will likely rise to above normal values by Monday into Tuesday, with periods of rain likely. This will likely lead to at least some ripening and melting of the snowpack and runoff, although it is too early to determine if there will be a flooding threat during this period. Rises on area waterways are likely during this timeframe.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for NYZ054. MA . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for MAZ001. VT . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for VTZ013.

SYNOPSIS . Speciale NEAR TERM . Speciale SHORT TERM . Speciale LONG TERM . IAA AVIATION . JPV HYDROLOGY . Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 61 mi51 min SW 1.9 36°F 1010 hPa23°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Adams Harriman-and-West Airport, MA2 mi29 minW 17 G 3010.00 miOvercast30°F17°F58%1009.4 hPa
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT13 mi27 minWNW 11 G 1810.00 miOvercast30°F17°F58%1009.5 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA20 mi27 minWNW 11 G 2210.00 miOvercast30°F16°F56%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAQW

Wind History from AQW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W6W7W8W7W8W7W13
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1 day agoW9W7W6W5W5W7NW5NW3W5NW5NW6CalmW3W5--NE3CalmCalmCalmW5W6W3W3Calm
2 days agoW4Calm36NW7W7W6W7W9W8W7W8W8W8
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Thu -- 12:13 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:03 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:48 AM EST     4.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:31 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.33.52.51.81.10.3-0.20.31.52.73.54.14.33.83.12.41.91.30.60.61.42.63.54.1

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:13 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:53 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:40 AM EST     4.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:21 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:57 PM EST     4.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.23.42.41.710.2-0.20.51.72.93.64.14.23.732.31.91.10.50.71.62.83.64.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.