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FXUS61 KALY 111144 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 644 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Becoming blustery today as snow tapers off from west to east during the mid morning to early afternoon hours. Some lingering lake effect and upslope snow showers could continue into tonight.
Another disturbance and cold front is expected to pass over the region Tuesday night into Wednesday which could trigger some lake effect snow showers during this time. Temperatures will fluctuate some, but will average out milder than normal over the next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Update as of 6:30 AM EST....Rain has transitioned over to snow for much of the local forecast area. Some of the valley locations are still toggling back and forth between rain and snow showers. Going forecast remains on good shape. Just made slight changes to the hourly temperature and dewpoint grids to reflect current observations and forecast trends. See previous discussion below.

[Previous 450 AM EST]...Snow will taper off from west to east during the mid morning to early afternoon hours as the storm stem departs to our east- northeast. Lowered snow amounts from overnight slightly. Total snow amounts are expected to be in the 5-10 inch range for the highest of elevations. Elsewhere, anywhere from a trace to 5 inches is expected. With the system snow ending over the area, there could be some lingering lake effect and upslope snow showers impacting parts of the area into tonight before waning. Otherwise, expect for drier weather conditions to resume.

With a 1025-1030 mb surface high pressure system to our southwest over Appalachia and the Southeast U.S, and the departing low pressure system to our northeast, a tightened pressure gradient will result in blustery conditions developing this afternoon. Winds are expected to gusts out of the west-northwest between 20-30 kts. There could be some locally higher gusts over the Mohawk Valley, Capital District into the Berkshires due channeling winds down the Mohawk.
Winds coupled with any snow load on the trees could result in some power outages.

High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 40s along the river valleys and 30s over the higher elevations. Low temperatures tonight are expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s along the river valleys with pockets of teens over the higher elevations.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Tuesday we'll see a brief reprieve from any precipitation. Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold front attached to a shortwave/cyclonic flow aloft passing mostly to our north will bring another round of lake effect snow showers to parts of the area. Our western zones (i.e. southwestern ADKS, western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie) will be the most favored to see lake effect snow with west-northwest winds off Lake Ontario. Initially, the lake effect band is expected to start over our northwestern zones (i.e. southwestern ADKS into the Mohawk Valley) Tuesday evening/night before shifting southward on Wednesday into the Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills. There could be instances where fragments of lake effect snow showers reach the Capital Region as winds could be quite blustery off the lake.

Some models, particularly the Canadian models, are signaling for the potential for this lake effect snow event to be a decent one.
All will depend on the amount of low level instability over/just off Lake Ontario and placement of the dendritic growth zone (dgz). Low level lapse rates Tuesday night int Wednesday were sampled between 7- 9 C/km and mid level lapse rates between 6-7 C/km. Lake effect snow showers are expected to dwindle in coverage Wednesday afternoon before coming to an end Wednesday evening/night as a strong and stout surface high pressure system builds into the region from the central U.S.

Before the cold fropa, a mild day on Tuesday is expected with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 40s along the river valleys and 30s higher elevations. Behind the cold fropa on Wednesday, high temperatures are expected to only be in the upper 30s to lower 40s along the river valleys (Upper 20s higher elevations).
Low temperatures Tuesday night are expected to be in the upper 20s to near 30F along the river valleys (mid 20s higher elevations). On Wednesday night, low temperatures are expected to only be in the upper teens to lower 20s along the river valleys (low to mid teens higher elevations).

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Behind a departing upper level shortwave, the flow aloft will be flattening out for the late week. Upper level heights may gradually build, with warming temps aloft, by the weekend as well. At the surface, strong high pressure will nose into the area from the west and gradually pass across the region, and heading off to the east by the weekend.

As a result, mainly dry weather is expected through the long term period. The flow aloft won't be favorable for any lake effect precip, so it should be precip-free across the region from Thursday into the start of the weekend. It's possible that a few showers from a northern stream disturbance could impact the region by later Sunday, but this is uncertain due to being so far out. In addition, there's also the possibility for a coastal system to brush the region late in the weekend into early next week, but this is also very uncertain.

While it will be still rather chilly for Thursday (daytime temps in the 30s), there will be a warming trend for Friday into the weekend.
Above normal temps look to be favored, with most areas seeing daytime highs well into the 40s. Because of this, any possible precip late in the weekend or early next week would be rain (if it occurs).

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Steady precipitation is ongoing at all TAF sites this morning, as a wave of low pressure moves along a frontal boundary located east of the region. Flying conditions are variable this morning, as p-type and precip intensity has been varying. Overall, flying conditions have generally been IFR at KALB/KGFL within snow, and MVFR/VFR at KPSF/KPOU within light rain. Over the next few hours, mainly snow is expected at KGFL/KALB. KPSF should see a changeover to snow or a rain/snow mix as well. KPOU will remain too warm to see snow and should stay all rain. Flying conditions will generally be IFR, although brief periods of MVFR are possible (especially at KPOU where precip will be rain). Accumulation will be fairly light at these sites, due to temps remaining just above freezing for most of the time.

Precip should be ending by the mid to late morning hours. Once precip ends, flying conditions should return back to VFR, with just bkn cigs around 4 kft. These clouds will eventually go scattered towards the evening hours and into tonight, with continued VFR conditions and no additional precip.

Winds will become west to northwest at 10 to 15 kts for this morning, with some higher gusts at times. Westerly winds will be around 15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts for all sites this afternoon.
These will start to diminish this evening, with westerly winds generally 5 to 10 kts for tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY
Anywhere from 1.00 to 3.00 inches has fallen across much of the ALY CWA as of this morning.

Despite the respectable amounts of rainfall, only minor urban and/or poor drainage flooding is possible or has occurred.
Additionally, the Housatonic is the only river site that's expected to reach minor flood stage today.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch through this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ039>043-048>054-061-082>084.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ032- 033-038-047-058-063.
MA...Flood Watch through this evening for MAZ001-025.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ013- 014.

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