Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 3:56 AM   Moonset 4:51 PM

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LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0003.000000t0000z-240417t2115z/ 505 Pm Edt Wed Apr 17 2024
.the special marine warning will expire at 515 pm edt - .
the affected areas were - . Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion) - . St. Clair river - .
the Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 pm edt for southeastern michigan - .the adjacent waters of lake huron - .and the adjacent waters of lake st. Clair.
&&
lat - .lon 4289 8247 4280 8248 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4246 8274 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8252 4301 8247 4302 8243 4298 8241 time - .mot - .loc 2105z 242deg 52kt 4323 8228 4292 8200 4269 8178

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 051724 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 124 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Decreasing clouds this afternoon and evening. Mostly sunny Monday.
Seasonal temperatures.

- Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are possible south of I-94.

AVIATION

Weak secondary cold front slowly sagging south through the TAF corridor this afternoon maintaining MVFR cloud cover as well as areas of drizzle. While clearing has already occurred over mbS, satellite trends show lower cloud gradient has stubbornly held north of FNT thus far. Based on these trends and forecast soundings, have gone a bit more pessimistic on lifting/clearing timing for all TAF sites (save for mbS) pushing it back to evening (~21-00Z). High pressure becomes fully established over the region tonight setting up lighter (10kt or less) flow as well as limiting any redevelopment of lower cloud, once clearing occurs.

For DTW/D21 Convection... Low level moisture has held more stubbornly even with drier air drawn into the area. Pushed lifting/clearing timing to late evening-early tonight (~00-05Z)
though this still carries a fair degree of uncertainty.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less through this evening, turning low tonight (between ~03-06Z).

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

DISCUSSION...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms weakened and decreased in coverage as they inched toward Se Mi early this morning, the result of the upper jet support and mid level height falls lifting north of the forecast area. The convection also become outflow dominated, leading to waning instability. The associated surface front will also weaken as it exits east of the area this afternoon, although the 00Z hi res suite all indicate lingering sfc troughing extending across Se Mi into late afternoon. Sfc high pressure will expand into the western Great Lakes today as mid level ridging builds across the upper Mississippi Valley. Ample low level moisture along/ahead of the approaching front (sfc dewpoints around 60F) will contribute to low clouds and a few lingering showers this morning. Low level cold air advection this afternoon will deepen the mixed layer, boosting cloud bases and supporting afternoon highs well into the 60s to low 70s. Persistent low level anticylonic flow associated with the inbound sfc high will eventually drive drier air into Se Mi, leading to a late afternoon/evening clearing trend from north to south. The associated north-northeast sfc winds will also advect the Lake Huron marine layer inland during the course of the afternoon/evening. This will present itself as a notable drop in temperatures.

Mid level ridging and associated sfc high pressure will be anchored over Lower Mi and Lake Huron by Monday. Occasional high clouds may be all that keeps skies outright clear. The strength of the subsidence will limit mixing depths Monday to just under 5k feet, resulting in daytime highs mainly in the mid 60s to near 70. The dry air and light winds will allow respectable nighttime cooling, both tonight and Monday night, leading to lows into the 40s.

A highly amplified long wave trough is forecast to emerge from western Canada into the Central Plains Tuesday, becoming a deep closed low across the northern Rockies/High Plains by Wednesday.
Strong deep layer southwest flow ahead of this system will drive an instability plume into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Upper jet support and strong moisture transport/convergence along a low level warm front will support increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms Tues aftn/Tues night. The northward extent of the surface based instability plume into southern Michigan carries some degree of uncertainty. While there is still a decent spread among ensemble members, the late timing of the front and easterly flow off the stable lakes suggests that surface based instability may struggle to advect too far northward into Se Mi. In light of strongly sheared environment and model uncertainty, the southern portions of Se Mi may remain on the northern edge of the SPC severe outlooks for the next couple days.

MARINE...

A weak cold front will continue to track east across the central Great Lakes this morning bringing scattered showers, a few embedded thunderstorms, and some areas of fog. Winds shift to northwest as it departs, peaking at around 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. Conditions dry out as high pressure builds into the area today and takes residence through Monday and into Tuesday, maintaining light winds and waves. A more active weather pattern follows beginning late Tuesday as the next low pressure system sends a warm front across the region. This system brings a period of numerous showers and storms Tuesday night through early Wednesday with another system likely to follow for Thursday. At this time winds are likely to remain below marine headline criteria.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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