Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lansing, MI
November 30, 2023 3:26 AM EST (08:26 UTC)
Sunrise 7:46AM Sunset 5:07PM Moonrise 7:50PM Moonset 11:14AM
LCZ423 851 Pm Edt Wed Sep 6 2023
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters...
the areas affected include...
detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie...
at 848 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm west of lake erie metropark harbor to 8 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to near luna pier, moving northeast at 20 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near, Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, woodland beach, and detroit beach around 855 pm edt. Stony point around 900 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor, estral beach, and gibraltar around 910 pm edt. Detroit river light around 915 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina and wyandotte around 920 pm edt. Grosse ile around 925 pm edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive.
&&
lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8294 4235 8293 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters...
the areas affected include...
detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie...
at 848 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm west of lake erie metropark harbor to 8 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to near luna pier, moving northeast at 20 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near, Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, woodland beach, and detroit beach around 855 pm edt. Stony point around 900 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor, estral beach, and gibraltar around 910 pm edt. Detroit river light around 915 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina and wyandotte around 920 pm edt. Grosse ile around 925 pm edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive.
&&
lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8294 4235 8293 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341
LCZ400
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KGRR 300543 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1243 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 317 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
Quiet weather to begin the short term with flat ridging and warm advection bringing in warmer temperatures for Thursday. A western CONUS trough goes negative tilt and a sfc cyclone forms across the Southern Plains, tracking through the Ohio Valley by the end of the week. This will bring the chance for snow or mixed precip late Thursday night across the southern half of the forecast area.
12Z operational runs of the GFS, NAM and ECMWF model soundings showing potential for rain/snow mix arriving after midnight near the I-94 corridor and moving north to I-96 and becoming mostly snow there by 12Z Friday. Confidence is higher than yesterday on this scenario since all models and ensemble support are going in this direction over the past 24 hours when the ECMWF sharply trended toward the further north extent of the precip shield that had been shown by the GFS over the past several days.
Model soundings do not support freezing rain at this point, so icing should not be an issue. We will have to monitor the potential for strong mid-level f-gen forcing over the southern and central zones by early Friday morning that could indicate formation of mesoscale banding and snow rates that would be able to overcome skin temps near or above freezing. This would allow snow accumulations on area roads that would impact travel during the Friday morning commute.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
The Friday morning time frame has become a bit more interesting for the area, with confidence increasing that a portion of the area will see some brief, yet impactful weather in the form of likely accumulating snow.
The trend over the 24 hours for Friday has been that of a colder one, that will likely result in a band of some accumulating snow.
Temperatures remain marginal for snow at that time, but more impressive dynamics will likely turn more of the pcpn to snow. The frontal system that drops into the area on Thursday will stall out over the area Thursday night. Then we see a nice area of stronger forcing move through the area along the boundary in the form of a coupled jet structure. This is expected to produce a nice band of mid level fgen over the area, with some decent pcpn rates. This will likely offset any subtle warming at the sfc, and allow for mainly snow under the heavier rates.
Where this takes place remains a little uncertain yet, but there has been some good consensus building in the latest data sets. The favored location at this time looks to be somewhere near a line from Holland to Saginaw. Fgen bands are always tricky with where they set up exactly. The confidence is there though that it should be give or take 30 miles or so on either side of that line.
Amounts will be highly variable with the system, as there will likely be a sharp cutoff on the northern side of it due to the sinking of the air on the cold side of the fgen band, and with a dry NE flow at the sfc eating away at the lighter pcpn rates. This could very well be an advisory type of event under the heavier band, but it remains too early to dial in to the exact amounts and placement.
Beyond Friday, we continue to expect a period with seasonable temperatures, and unsettled weather through most of the rest of the period through next Wednesday. We will see general long wave troughing holding over the area from Saturday through Tuesday. This troughing doesn't have very cold temps with it, as the northern jet is locking up the frigid air well north of the area. We will see short waves move through periodically, bring chances of rain and/or snow depending on the sfc temps due to diurnal effects and advection with respect to the short waves.
It does look like the troughing will transition out of the area on Wednesday as a long wave ridge builds over the Plains. There could be some rain/snow with that warmer air pushing in.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1243 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023
VFR prevails across much of the area this morning and will persist through Thursday. Low level wind shear still looks to impact conditions this morning as a low level jet moves overhead.
Ceilings will gradually fall near the end of the TAF period as our next system brings rain and snow into the area.
MARINE
Issued at 317 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
No changes to the Small Craft Advisory. Winds and waves will finally decrease on Thursday night.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1243 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 317 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
Quiet weather to begin the short term with flat ridging and warm advection bringing in warmer temperatures for Thursday. A western CONUS trough goes negative tilt and a sfc cyclone forms across the Southern Plains, tracking through the Ohio Valley by the end of the week. This will bring the chance for snow or mixed precip late Thursday night across the southern half of the forecast area.
12Z operational runs of the GFS, NAM and ECMWF model soundings showing potential for rain/snow mix arriving after midnight near the I-94 corridor and moving north to I-96 and becoming mostly snow there by 12Z Friday. Confidence is higher than yesterday on this scenario since all models and ensemble support are going in this direction over the past 24 hours when the ECMWF sharply trended toward the further north extent of the precip shield that had been shown by the GFS over the past several days.
Model soundings do not support freezing rain at this point, so icing should not be an issue. We will have to monitor the potential for strong mid-level f-gen forcing over the southern and central zones by early Friday morning that could indicate formation of mesoscale banding and snow rates that would be able to overcome skin temps near or above freezing. This would allow snow accumulations on area roads that would impact travel during the Friday morning commute.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
The Friday morning time frame has become a bit more interesting for the area, with confidence increasing that a portion of the area will see some brief, yet impactful weather in the form of likely accumulating snow.
The trend over the 24 hours for Friday has been that of a colder one, that will likely result in a band of some accumulating snow.
Temperatures remain marginal for snow at that time, but more impressive dynamics will likely turn more of the pcpn to snow. The frontal system that drops into the area on Thursday will stall out over the area Thursday night. Then we see a nice area of stronger forcing move through the area along the boundary in the form of a coupled jet structure. This is expected to produce a nice band of mid level fgen over the area, with some decent pcpn rates. This will likely offset any subtle warming at the sfc, and allow for mainly snow under the heavier rates.
Where this takes place remains a little uncertain yet, but there has been some good consensus building in the latest data sets. The favored location at this time looks to be somewhere near a line from Holland to Saginaw. Fgen bands are always tricky with where they set up exactly. The confidence is there though that it should be give or take 30 miles or so on either side of that line.
Amounts will be highly variable with the system, as there will likely be a sharp cutoff on the northern side of it due to the sinking of the air on the cold side of the fgen band, and with a dry NE flow at the sfc eating away at the lighter pcpn rates. This could very well be an advisory type of event under the heavier band, but it remains too early to dial in to the exact amounts and placement.
Beyond Friday, we continue to expect a period with seasonable temperatures, and unsettled weather through most of the rest of the period through next Wednesday. We will see general long wave troughing holding over the area from Saturday through Tuesday. This troughing doesn't have very cold temps with it, as the northern jet is locking up the frigid air well north of the area. We will see short waves move through periodically, bring chances of rain and/or snow depending on the sfc temps due to diurnal effects and advection with respect to the short waves.
It does look like the troughing will transition out of the area on Wednesday as a long wave ridge builds over the Plains. There could be some rain/snow with that warmer air pushing in.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1243 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023
VFR prevails across much of the area this morning and will persist through Thursday. Low level wind shear still looks to impact conditions this morning as a low level jet moves overhead.
Ceilings will gradually fall near the end of the TAF period as our next system brings rain and snow into the area.
MARINE
Issued at 317 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
No changes to the Small Craft Advisory. Winds and waves will finally decrease on Thursday night.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLAN CAPITAL REGION INTL,MI | 5 sm | 33 min | SW 06 | 9 sm | Clear | 30°F | 25°F | 80% | 29.88 | |
| KTEW MASON JEWETT FIELD,MI | 12 sm | 11 min | SW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 30°F | 25°F | 80% | 29.88 | |
| KFPK FITCH H BEACH,MI | 16 sm | 11 min | SSW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 28°F | 25°F | 86% | 29.87 |
Wind History from LAN
(wind in knots)
Detroit, MI,
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