NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LCZ423 851 Pm Edt Wed Sep 6 2023
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters...
the areas affected include...
detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie...
at 848 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm west of lake erie metropark harbor to 8 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to near luna pier, moving northeast at 20 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near, Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, woodland beach, and detroit beach around 855 pm edt. Stony point around 900 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor, estral beach, and gibraltar around 910 pm edt. Detroit river light around 915 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina and wyandotte around 920 pm edt. Grosse ile around 925 pm edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive.
&&
lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8294 4235 8293 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 061740 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1240 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

A few light snow showers and flurries will continue to develop through the morning with h8 temps down around -8 C yielding delta t/s in the middle teens. Precipitation will taper off toward midday as deeper moisture decreases and h8 temps begin to moderate.

Dry wx is expected for most of our area tonight. A mid to upper level disturbance passing by well to the north to ne of our area may bring just a few light mixed light rain/light snow showers to our ne fcst area. Milder and dry wx is forecast for Thursday. A fair amount of sun in conjunction with increasing sw flow waa will help to boost max temps well into the 40s.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

The latest 00Z deterministic runs of the ECMWF/GFS/Canadian have all changed their tune quite a bit as far as the late weekend weather goes. The longwave trough which digs over the center of the nation is now shown to be a bit more progressive and less amplified so the sfc frontal zone just drifts east through Michigan with no notable sfc low developing along it.

This scenario would mean a round of rain showers Friday night through Saturday night ahead/along of the front, followed by some light lake effect snow showers in the cold advection behind the front Sunday into Monday. Ensemble 50th percentile QPF amounts have lowered, as well as the threat of stronger winds.

That said there are still a few (minority) ensembles members which support the idea of a decent sfc low developing along the baroclinic zone although that number is shrinking in the new 00Z data. A few members are also still putting down a stripe of synoptic snow through the area but it should be noted that the EC ENS 90th percentile snow amounts have lowered considerably and the prob of >6" is now less than 10 percent.

So while overall fcst confidence still remains relatively low for later in the weekend, the risk of any higher impact weather is definitely decreasing in the new 00Z 12/6 data.

Otherwise confidence is high regarding the unseasonable warmth preceding the frontal passage, with temps Friday expected to be in the 50s and even a decent potential for sunshine. Similar highs are possible on Saturday as well, especially over ern sections, depending on frontal timing and shower coverage.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

Generally VFR conditions ongoing at present with an area of high end MVFR intermixed with VFR moving through this afternoon into the evening. Skies become completely VFR this evening and cigs are forecast to scatter out tomorrow morning. Southwest winds of 10-15 knots are expected tonight with gusts to 25 knots at MKG. A few hours of LLWS are possible for BTL and JXN as a 40-45 knot low level jet moves overhead early Thursdat morning.

MARINE
Issued at 324 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

We will issue a small craft advisory for tonight through early Friday morning as winds and wave heights will ramp up considerably beginning this evening. Conditions could briefly flirt with gale force but an overall guidance consensus favors winds to stay under gale force. The small craft will likely eventually need to be extended through Friday.



GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for LMZ844>849.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Detroit, MI,