Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lansing, MI
May 14, 2024 1:52 AM EDT (05:52 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:14 AM Sunset 8:54 PM Moonrise 11:03 AM Moonset 1:33 AM |
LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
&&
lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
&&
lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347
LCZ400
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 140509 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 109 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- On and off showers/storms through Tuesday evening
- Dry with seasonable temperatures Wednesday...
- Mainly low risks for showers late week and into upcoming weekend
DISCUSSION
Issued at 335 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
- On and off showers/storms through Tuesday evening
We have scattered to broken coverage of mainly showers late this afternoon firing close to a cold front that is slowly sagging south through the area. Instability ahead of the front has increased to 500-1000 J/kg ahead of the front over our area. It is more favorable/higher across the Lake over WI and IL where more storms have fired with better low level moisture, and closer to the upper trough aloft.
Instability progs show that we are peaking right about now with regards to instability. Part of this is that they are forecasting dew points to mix out/down a bit for the next few hours. Then we obviously cool down as the sun sets. We do anticipate more showers than storms through sunset. Any storms that form should not cause too much trouble with a lack of deep layer shear around. This was evident in the storms over WI and IL as they were very much of the pulse variety.
We will see additional showers and embedded thunder into tonight, even as we lose diurnal instability. This is because we see the upper low to our west approach the area and help out with broad scale lift and interacting with the front.
We could see a break in the activity late tonight and Tuesday morning, before another round affects the southern portion of the area. The sfc front is expected to sink south of the forecast area by tomorrow morning. We will then see the deformation zone of the upper low closing off provide the threat for additional showers. The trend over the last 24 hours has been for this to be a little further south. This looks to be the result of the upper low going just a little further south, and drier NE flow eating away at lighter rain on the northern edge.
All of this should come to an end Tuesday evening, with drier conditions spreading over the entire area. One thing to mention for starting Tuesday night. Some of the smoke aloft over the far Upper Midwest and Canada from Canadian Wildfires may start to move overhead in the wake of the system Tuesday night.
- Dry with seasonable temperatures Wednesday...
The upper level disturbance over the Ohio Valley Tuesday will push east toward the mid Atlantic states by Wednesday. This will allow ridging at the surface and aloft to overspread the Great Lakes. With a relatively dry E/NE flow and strong May sunshine, a good deal of sunshine is expected Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal, as morning lows in the 40s rebound to around 70 during the afternoon.
- Mainly low risks for showers late week and into upcoming weekend
Models/ensembles are in general agreement that a progressive and quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern will impact the northern CONUS late in the week. This set up will likely result in multiple short wave troughs quickly traversing the northern part of the country. In the absence of strong meridional flow, temperature changes behind any associated surface fronts should remain small/negligible.
The strongest short wave /relatively speaking/ is expected to impact West Michigan late Thursday into Friday, and will likely provide the best chances /50-70%/ for showers/storms. Additional low chances /20-30%/ for showers will remain the forecast through the upcoming weekend, as the next short wave potentially impacts the area. Common of this synoptic pattern, the speed and strength of these short waves has a high degree of uncertainty -- and consequently, uncertainty also revolves around the precise timing and coverage of any associated showers. So, in spite of the low risk for showers that'll be reflected in the forecast, the upcoming weekend likely won't be a horrible one /i.e. no prolonged or heavy rain expected/.
Temperatures Thursday through the weekend will average near to somewhat **above normal**, with plenty of 70s expected for highs, and 40s and 50s for lows.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 102 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A few showers may impact the terminals into Tuesday afternoon. No thunderstorms are expected. Model guidance continues to show some lowering of the ceilings as we approach 12z, into the MVFR range.
IFR is less likely to occur and is not in the forecast. Ceilings will begin eroding from N to S throughout the afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 335 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
We may not need any Small Craft Advisories for much of this week.
There are some better winds aloft this afternoon that are being realized inland where there is better mixing. Over the cooler waters of Lake Michigan, the winds are not mixing down nearly as much. We expect this to continue until the core of winds aloft move out this evening.
We do see some winds aloft ramp up some Tuesday night into Wednesday once again. These winds will be offshore in nature, and are more likely to stay below criteria. We will have to watch this period, as if it looks like the winds will be realized, an advisory will be needed.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 109 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- On and off showers/storms through Tuesday evening
- Dry with seasonable temperatures Wednesday...
- Mainly low risks for showers late week and into upcoming weekend
DISCUSSION
Issued at 335 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
- On and off showers/storms through Tuesday evening
We have scattered to broken coverage of mainly showers late this afternoon firing close to a cold front that is slowly sagging south through the area. Instability ahead of the front has increased to 500-1000 J/kg ahead of the front over our area. It is more favorable/higher across the Lake over WI and IL where more storms have fired with better low level moisture, and closer to the upper trough aloft.
Instability progs show that we are peaking right about now with regards to instability. Part of this is that they are forecasting dew points to mix out/down a bit for the next few hours. Then we obviously cool down as the sun sets. We do anticipate more showers than storms through sunset. Any storms that form should not cause too much trouble with a lack of deep layer shear around. This was evident in the storms over WI and IL as they were very much of the pulse variety.
We will see additional showers and embedded thunder into tonight, even as we lose diurnal instability. This is because we see the upper low to our west approach the area and help out with broad scale lift and interacting with the front.
We could see a break in the activity late tonight and Tuesday morning, before another round affects the southern portion of the area. The sfc front is expected to sink south of the forecast area by tomorrow morning. We will then see the deformation zone of the upper low closing off provide the threat for additional showers. The trend over the last 24 hours has been for this to be a little further south. This looks to be the result of the upper low going just a little further south, and drier NE flow eating away at lighter rain on the northern edge.
All of this should come to an end Tuesday evening, with drier conditions spreading over the entire area. One thing to mention for starting Tuesday night. Some of the smoke aloft over the far Upper Midwest and Canada from Canadian Wildfires may start to move overhead in the wake of the system Tuesday night.
- Dry with seasonable temperatures Wednesday...
The upper level disturbance over the Ohio Valley Tuesday will push east toward the mid Atlantic states by Wednesday. This will allow ridging at the surface and aloft to overspread the Great Lakes. With a relatively dry E/NE flow and strong May sunshine, a good deal of sunshine is expected Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal, as morning lows in the 40s rebound to around 70 during the afternoon.
- Mainly low risks for showers late week and into upcoming weekend
Models/ensembles are in general agreement that a progressive and quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern will impact the northern CONUS late in the week. This set up will likely result in multiple short wave troughs quickly traversing the northern part of the country. In the absence of strong meridional flow, temperature changes behind any associated surface fronts should remain small/negligible.
The strongest short wave /relatively speaking/ is expected to impact West Michigan late Thursday into Friday, and will likely provide the best chances /50-70%/ for showers/storms. Additional low chances /20-30%/ for showers will remain the forecast through the upcoming weekend, as the next short wave potentially impacts the area. Common of this synoptic pattern, the speed and strength of these short waves has a high degree of uncertainty -- and consequently, uncertainty also revolves around the precise timing and coverage of any associated showers. So, in spite of the low risk for showers that'll be reflected in the forecast, the upcoming weekend likely won't be a horrible one /i.e. no prolonged or heavy rain expected/.
Temperatures Thursday through the weekend will average near to somewhat **above normal**, with plenty of 70s expected for highs, and 40s and 50s for lows.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 102 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A few showers may impact the terminals into Tuesday afternoon. No thunderstorms are expected. Model guidance continues to show some lowering of the ceilings as we approach 12z, into the MVFR range.
IFR is less likely to occur and is not in the forecast. Ceilings will begin eroding from N to S throughout the afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 335 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
We may not need any Small Craft Advisories for much of this week.
There are some better winds aloft this afternoon that are being realized inland where there is better mixing. Over the cooler waters of Lake Michigan, the winds are not mixing down nearly as much. We expect this to continue until the core of winds aloft move out this evening.
We do see some winds aloft ramp up some Tuesday night into Wednesday once again. These winds will be offshore in nature, and are more likely to stay below criteria. We will have to watch this period, as if it looks like the winds will be realized, an advisory will be needed.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLAN CAPITAL REGION INTL,MI | 5 sm | 11 min | calm | 2 sm | Overcast | Mist | 63°F | 61°F | 94% | 29.81 |
| KTEW MASON JEWETT FIELD,MI | 12 sm | 17 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 63°F | 57°F | 83% | 29.81 | |
| KFPK FITCH H BEACH,MI | 16 sm | 17 min | W 01 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 61°F | 57°F | 88% | 29.80 |
Detroit, MI,
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