Hamburg, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hamburg, NY

December 8, 2023 10:40 AM EST (15:40 UTC)
Sunrise 7:31AM   Sunset 4:42PM   Moonrise  2:50AM   Moonset 2:02PM 

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Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Expires:202312081015;;085775 Fzus51 Kbuf 080220 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 920 pm est Thu dec 7 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-081015- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 920 pm est Thu dec 7 2023
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain during the day, then rain and snow Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.

No data

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamburg, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 934 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Notably milder air will overspread the region with temperatures climbing well into the 50s by Saturday afternoon. A low pressure system will then bring a soaking rainfall to the area Saturday night into Sunday. Rain will change over to snow from west to east Sunday night as colder air moves back into the region.

A mid-level ridge will build across the region today, while surface high pressure builds across western New England. High pressure subsidence will ensure a dry day with some clearing from the west this morning, though additional clouds will likely move back in later in the afternoon. Light southerly flow and WAA will boost high temperatures into the 50s across the lake plains west of Rochester which will benefit from southerly downsloping.

Tonight, cloud cover will increase in advance of the next shortwave, but the mid-level ridge axis will maintain dry weather overnight.
Persistent southerly winds around 10 mph will prevent radiational cooling with low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

A very active period as a deep trough will advance from the nation's mid section to across our region Monday morning. This trough will tap into both Atlantic moisture as well as Gulf of Mexico moisture, sending a plume of deep moisture across our region, moisture that will fuel a soaking rainfall across our region. Cold air rushing in behind a cold front Sunday night will yield an inch or two of wet snow, with potential for higher amounts across higher terrain.

Rain will push into WNY Saturday night with diffluent flow aloft, and lower level convergence on the nose of a 50 knot LLJ. This steady southerly flow Saturday night will keep overnight temperatures mild, with most areas only lowering into the mid to upper 40s. This will be close to 20 degrees above normal minimum temperatures. Rain will spread eastward to our eastern zones by around the midnight hour.

Models are settling in on a wavy frontal boundary with waves of low pressure moving along it Sunday into Monday morning. This front will be near central Lake Erie to start Sunday morning, keeping everyone with a mild start to the day. Heaviest rain on Sunday in the warm sector will occur where strongest moisture advection of abnormally high PWATs well over the 90th percentile occurs ahead of the front (eastern Finger Lakes northward to the eastern Lake Ontario region).
Additional lift will be generated aloft by jet streaks within a 110 knot jet at 300 hPa. By late Sunday night, areas on the Tug Hill may see up to 1.25 inches or more of liquid rainfall boosted by upslope flow. Farther west though, the gradient of QPF will be sharper with three quarters to an inch of rainfall likely. Latest MMEFS of the GEFS and NAEFS continues to highlight only the Black River in the North Country as possibly rising to action stage...and this would not be until later in the week as this river is a slow riser.

Temperatures will fall through the afternoon hours behind the front for WNY, while east of Lake Ontario temperatures will linger in the upper 40s through the afternoon hours.

As the next wave of low pressure lifts by on Sunday night to our east, there is good agreement that switch from rain to snow occurs as early as dusk Sunday evening for higher terrain of southwest NYS, then eventually through the evening for the rest of western NY with most locations to snow by midnight. Anafrontal look to this event with precipitation lingering through the night with CAA advection aloft. Feel the change from rain to snow will be sharp.

It is certainly possible winter headlines may eventually be needed for the change to wet snow Sunday night into Monday, with highest chances of that from Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes and probably more so for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. In these spots, models and ensemble probability data suggest several inches of wet/sloppy snow could occur and it is here there is also higher signal for widespread moderate impacts on the latest Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (Prob WSSI).

Lower elevations will likely see much less snow, including the Buffalo to Rochester corridor. Away from the better convergence of the eastern surface low, and at a lower elevation these areas may only accumulate an inch or two of snow. Still with temperatures falling to just under the freezing mark, slippery spots are quite possible impacting the Monday morning commute. Additionally the prior period of rainfall will leave no time for pre-treating the roads, with this rain washing away any left over salt on the roads prior to the onset of snow.

Steady system snow exits fairly quickly on Monday. Though there will be some scattered leftover lake effect snow, at this point it appears to be light as it will be held down by limited deep moisture and less low-level cyclonic flow as ridge slips in quickly late Monday into Monday night. Does look like a seasonally cool day with a blustery NW wind within a tight surface pressure gradient. Even though winds will gust potentially to 35 mph, the wet snow will have little blowing and drifting.

Shallow lake effect snow Monday night southeast of the Lakes will drift northward with backing winds. Snow will end quickly with warm air advection aloft and advection of drier air. A diminished band may lift northward across Watertown Tuesday morning.

Rest of long term looks changeable. Modest warm up on Tuesday with gusty WSW winds that will be followed by cool down on Wednesday as a fairly sharp cold front drops across. Highest pops near the lakes for now but maybe a touch of light snow for all areas on Wednesday if this front ends up having a bit more punch than shown right now.
Another round of warm air advection starts up on Thursday as a fairly strong surface high pressure system pushes eastward from the Plains.

Lower cig have scattered out across Western NY, but there remains some low LIFR stratus and fog east of Lake Ontario.
This should exit this area this morning when winds shift to southeast and mix out the low moisture. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR flight conditions this afternoon.

Clouds will return by late afternoon and evening in advance of the next system, but cloud bases expected to be in the VFR flight category. These may drop to MVFR across higher terrain (such as KJHW) but should remain VFR at most TAF sites overnight.


Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR. Breezy. Rain changing to rain/snow late.
Monday...MVFR. Breezy with a chance of snow showers.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Offshore south/southeasterly winds will increase some today, but will remain below SCA criteria through much of Saturday. The next chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions will arrive Sunday night through Monday as colder air moves back into the lower Great Lakes in the wake of the warm weekend system. Winds will likely remain elevated through the middle of next week.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 11 mi53 min SE 5.1G6 41°F 41°F29.9733°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi53 min 43°F 29.98
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 27 mi53 min 39°F 29.95
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 32 mi41 min S 5.1G7 47°F 29.98
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 39 mi41 min SE 6G7 41°F 29.97
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 43 mi41 min SE 6G8 40°F 30.02

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Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KBUF BUFFALO NIAGARA INTL,NY 16 sm46 minSE 0610 smOvercast37°F32°F81%29.98

Wind History from BUF
(wind in knots)

Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   

Buffalo, NY,

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