Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Browns Lake, WI

SHORT TERM
Issued 306 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Tonight through Monday night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Upper low pressure is centered over the Ontario-Manitoba border early this afternoon. Several embedded shortwaves are evident along the upper low's southern periphery, the most pertinent of which are positioned over far southeastern Wisconsin and along the Minnesota-Iowa border. The former of the two features is largely responsible for the light drizzle, freezing drizzle, and flurry activity that continues to persist across east- central and southeastern Wisconsin. The latter is progged to track from central Wisconsin toward the Sault Ste Marie vicinity this evening & tonight, helping to usher low pressure currently centered along the Wisconsin-Upper Michigan border into eastern Ontario by sunrise. Said low will pull a cold front across southern Wisconsin this evening. Gusty west-northwest winds will become established in the wake of the frontal passage, allowing an Arctic air mass to advect into the region from the Northern Plains. The arrival of the Arctic air mass, combining with any lingering moisture, may result in refreezing of area roadways. Gusty winds will persist Monday and Monday night, combining with the settling Arctic air mass to support blustery conditions areawide. Widespread wind chills between -10 and -15 are expected away from the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline by daybreak Monday, and once more on Monday night.

Rest Of This Afternoon: Areas of light drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue across east-central and southeast Wisconsin through ~ 4 PM. Elected to discontinue Special Weather Statements within & ahead of this activity at noon, given surface temperatures climbing above freezing in many locations. Nevertheless, pockets of 30-32 surface temps continue to linger, particularly along the Kettle Moraine. Thus can't entirely rule out a few pockets of freezing drizzle in these locations, with isolated slick spots possible on primarily elevated & untreated surfaces. Further to the northwest/along the leading edge of the approaching shortwave & surface front, additional precip is approaching from central Wisconsin, and will begin to move into the northern half of the CWA within the next 1-2 hours. While some of this precip could initially start as light freezing drizzle, it will quickly transition to light snow within a strong cold advection regime. Don't anticipate much in the way of accumulation with this snow, though a quick tenth to two tenths of an inch of new snow is possible primarily on grassy surfaces. While widespread impacts aren't expected in any of the near-term precipitation, be sure to slow down and allow for extra following distance if encountering areas of wintry precip this afternoon.

Tonight: Strong cold air advection will continue in the wake of the departed cold front. Combined with any remaining moisture, the rapidly falling surface temperatures could result in some refreezing of any untreated area roadways. Slow down and allow for extra travel time if driving tonight and early Monday morning. Gusty winds and the newly arrived Arctic air will support widespread wind chills in the -10 to -15 range away from Lake Michigan. Be sure to dress warmly if heading outdoors.

Monday Night: Blustery conditions will continue, with another round of widespread wind chills in the -10 to -15 range expected away from Lake Michigan. With the Arctic air mass firmly entrenched, a few locally colder readings near -20 can't be completely ruled out, particularly in central and east-central Wisconsin. While said readings would meet technical Cold Weather Advisory thresholds, they're not currently expected to be widespread enough to warrant headlines. Will nevertheless monitor trends over the coming forecast cycles.

Quigley

LONG TERM
Issued 306 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Tuesday through Sunday:

Synopsis: High pressure will settle into the region on Wednesday, allowing winds/gusts & affiliated frigid wind chills to taper. Said high will work into the Ohio River Valley during the day on Thursday, allowing winds to turn southwesterly across southern Wisconsin. Said winds will allow temperatures to moderate Thursday and Friday, when high temps in the mid-upper 30s are forecast. A few locations could reach/exceed 40 on Friday. Embedded within northwesterly upper flow, an upper disturbance is progged to track across the western Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. The next appreciable chances for rain and snow return to the forecast during this timeframe. It remains far too early to offer any specifics regarding precipitation types or totals. Much colder air will work into the region behind the disturbance Saturday through Sunday.

Quigley

AVIATION
Issued 306 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

CIGs generally in the FL008-FL015 range and VIS readings as low as 2 1/2 SM are resulting in a mix of MVFR and IFR flight categories at southern Wisconsin terminals this afternoon. Categorical reductions continue to be accompanied by areas of light -DZ, -FZDZ, and -SN, particularly at east-central and southeastern fields. Anticipate that precip will gradually taper by mid-evening. Already gusty, winds will continue to the west-northwest this afternoon & evening as a cold front crosses southern Wisconsin. The frontal passage will help to maintain gusty conditions through the period at all aerodromes. A very dry, Arctic air mass will work into the region in the wake of the cold front, allowing VIS readings and eventually CIGs to improve areawide. Have accounted for these expected trends in the 18 and 21Z updates, which bring VFR flight categories to all terminals near and after midnight tonight.

Quigley

MARINE
Issued 306 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

West-southwest winds prevail over the open waters this afternoon. A light mix of rain and snow showers is ongoing over the southern two thirds of Lake Michigan, and will continue through early this evening. A cold front is forecast to cross the lake tonight, with winds quickly shifting out of the west-northwest behind the boundary. Anticipate gusty conditions in the wake of the frontal passage, with gusts between 25-30 knots likely. Said gusts will continue through Monday, Monday night, and Tuesday morning, combining with elevated wave heights to support freezing spray potential across the entirety of the open waters. Don't currently anticipate that freezing spray will be heavy enough to warrant headlines, but will be monitoring trends closely over the coming forecasts. 1036 mb high pressure will build in from the northern Great Plains by mid-week, resulting in tapering gusts, wave heights, and freezing spray potential by Wednesday.

In nearshore zones, breezy west-southwest winds will shift out of the west-northwest this evening in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Gusty conditions will continue through Monday, Monday night, and Tuesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until Noon CST Tuesday from Sheboygan south to Winthrop Harbor.

Quigley

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until noon Tuesday.