Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Johns, NE

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Current radar imagery shows rain showers and thunderstorms continuing to push eastward across Nebraska. These storms will exit into eastern Nebraska by sunrise with a brief quiet period for much of the morning and early afternoon.

Another round of thunderstorms will occur this afternoon and evening as a trough digs across Nebraska. The main area of concern will be across portions of northern Nebraska where the best instability will be present. Current models suggest CAPE values near 1000 J/kg and lapse rates near 7 C/km. While the window for convection remains small today (generally between 4pm and 8pm CT), with sufficient forcing and instability around, a few isolated severe storms will be possible across portions of northern Nebraska and into our northeast forecast area (Holt and Boyd counties). The main threats with these storms will be large hail (greater than 1.5 inches possible), however, damaging winds (up to 60 mph) will also be possible. SPC has continued to highlight a slight risk across this area leading to higher confidence in the potential severe risk.

Any showers and thunderstorms will either move off to the east or quickly dissipate by mid to late evening as high pressure builds southward across the Great Plains. This high will bring some quieter weather as well as clearing skies to the area for Tuesday.

For temperatures, above normal temperatures are expected today with highs ranging from the mid 60s in northwest Nebraska to the upper 70s into central Nebraska. Cold air advection will then push a cooler airmass into the region on Tuesday bringing 850mb temperatures in the 1C to 5C range. This will drop surface temperatures to near normals in the mid to upper 60s for Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

High pressure will slowly shift eastward into Wednesday morning keeping a dry forecast in place. Temperatures return to above normal in the 70s for most locations as well. However, more active weather arrives Wednesday evening again as another disturbance impacts the region. While there is some uncertainty regarding this system, conditions remain favorable for shower and isolated thunderstorm development by Wednesday evening. Confidence in severe storms is low at this time and will continue to be monitored in the upcoming forecast cycles.

Strong upper level ridging will eventually build across the western US by Thursday night bringing some prolonged dry weather to north central Nebraska for the end of the week and into the weekend.
Temperatures will also rise to nearly 10 degrees above normal (normals in the mid 60s) for the Friday through Sunday timeframe.
While still early, this return to drier weather and warmer temperatures may also herald a return to fire weather concerns, especially on Friday when forecasted RH values will be the lowest (near 20 percent region-wide). This will be something we will continue to evaluate into next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

The main aviation concern through mid-afternoon will be strong westerly winds. Gusts up to 30 knots could be seen across the region through this afternoon and into the evening. In addition, scattered thunderstorms may develop across portions of northern Nebraska, impacting KVTN by late afternoon through early evening. Hail, erratic winds, and visibility reductions due to falling rain will be possible in any thunderstorm. Storms move out of the area by 06Z, but ceilings will remain at or below 5000 feet through the remainder of the TAF period at both terminals.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.