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FXUS63 KLBF 081749 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1149 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind gusts 30 to 40mph today mainly north of Highway 2

- Becoming very windy Saturday with gusts 40 to 50mph.

- A dusting of snow possible late Friday night/Saturday morning mainly across Boyd/northern Holt counties.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Central and western Nebraska is between systems today, so expect dry conditions with some mid/high clouds to dominate the weather today. It will also be breezy/windy especially north of Highway 2 where gusts will be in the 30 to 40mph range this afternoon.
Highs today will generally be in the middle 40s to around 50 degrees.

By tonight an upper trof will deepen and surge southward as it crosses the High Plains, helping to push a cold front southward through Nebraska. The most noteworthy impact from this frontal passage will be another period of strong gusty winds building southward Friday night into Saturday. Probabilistic guidance shows 50th percentile wind gusts will be at or above 40mph east of Highway 61, and close to 50mph generally north of Highway 2 and from Highway 83 eastward. The second feature of the frontal passage will be some flurries/snow showers later Friday night into Saturday morning. Moisture is quite limited with this system so the bulk of any snowfall is expected to remain north of Nebraska. However ensemble mean QPF and QPF plumes show potential for a few flurries possibly down to Highway 20, though probabilities for any measurable snowfall are below 15 percent so will not mention any accumulations Friday night. However ensembles do show a 20 to 40 percent chance for measurable snow showers from the predawn hours through Saturday morning reaching down into Boyd and northern Holt counties so a dusting of snow is possible but the potential for anything approaching an inch is only around 5 percent. There have been some hints for snow potential to trend a bit further southward but probabilities for any measurable snow reaching as far as Highway 2 are quite low.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 20s and highs Saturday behind the front will remain in the upper 30s north to around 40 degrees Interstate 80 southward.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

No high impact events on the horizon through the middle of next week.

As the upper trof moves east of the region early this weekend, ensemble guidance is in agreement depicting a gradual transition in the upper level pattern from low amplitude northwest flow aloft to a split flow regime with a strong ridge over the northern Plains and a closed low over the southwestern US. While this pattern will have poor moisture transport into the High Plains, there is an upward trend in moisture early next week with some weak forcing that may generate some flurries/light snow showers by Tuesday. However probabilities are 15 percent or less and ensemble QPF plumes clustered at or below 0.03".
Precipitation potential starts to increase toward the end of next week as the closed low over the southwestern US opens up and moves east and southerly flow on the backside of high pressure over the Mississippi valley starts to push better moisture into the region from the south.

Temperatures will waver around a good bit next week, but overall expect the fluctuations will stay within the range of seasonable variability with no signal for significant heat or cold.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1148 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

A cold front sweeping south through the Dakotas will bring another bout of gusty winds across western and north central Nebraska. With the approaching front, northwesterly winds will stay higher at KVTN throughout the TAF period. A cloud deck slowly tracking through South Dakota could potentially bring low end VFR to MVFR conditions at KVTN this afternoon, which is a bit quicker than guidance is suggesting. Will be closely monitoring ceilings this afternoon, as rapidly lowering ceilings are expected for KVTN, with timing still a bit in question. Additionally, KVTN may see some light snow showers in the vicinity overnight, but confidence is low, so will omit from the TAF for the time being. Stronger gusts hold off until tomorrow for KLBF, as the front continues southward.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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