Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 4:31 AM   Moonset 6:26 PM

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FXUS63 KLBF 061130 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 630 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A potent storm system crosses the region today. Strong winds and scattered thunderstorms (a few possibly severe) can be expected.

- The severe storm risk will generally be east of Highway 83 from late this morning through the mid-afternoon hours.

- Very strong westerly winds and low humidity values west of Highway 83 will lead to elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon.

- An unsettled week ahead with gusty northwest winds at times along with scattered showers.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Potent upper level low pressure is currently centered across northern UT and southern ID. Ahead of this feature, deep surface cyclogenesis is underway across northeast WY. A large reservoir of gulf moisture across the southern plains is being rapidly transported northward on strong southerly low-level flow across the plains. The stage is being set for a round of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the central and southern plains.

The surface low across northeast WY will continue to deepen and move into western SD (near Rapid City) by midday. A strong Pacific cold front will arc southeast of low...extending roughly along Hwy 83 across Nebraska. This front will become the focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon across central and into eastern Nebraska. Surface dew points ahead of the front will generally be in the upper 50s across central and north central Nebraska. With the increase in moisture, low clouds will be a concern in regards to instability. Most hi-res near term models keep the lower clouds in place across our area as the cold front advances through central and north central Nebraska this afternoon. This will likely limit overall instability, but it appears at least weak MLCAPE should materialize just ahead of the advancing front. Forcing will be strong, and expect at least some convective development along the front, roughly along Hwy 183 in the early afternoon. The convection appears it will quickly transition to a linear mode as it moves eastward into south central and eastern Nebraska by late this afternoon. The primary risk for our area looks to be damaging wind gusts and a lesser threat for hail. The better thermodynamic environment should reside across southern/eastern Nebraska along with the higher severe threat. Will have to watch for any clearing leading to more instability, but for now that doesn't appear to be the case for our area.

The airmass behind the cold front across western Nebraska will be quite dry as it spreads eastward from WY. As temperatures warm to near 70F and humidity values fall an elevated fire weather threat will develop. The spring green up is underway however, and the threat would be for areas that still have lingering drier vegetation where the green up has been delayed. These conditions will spread farther east Tuesday and encompass much of the region. Again affecting areas with a delayed green up.

The other concern will be the potential for high winds across western and especially northwest Nebraska this afternoon into the evening hours. Strong westerly winds will develop behind the cold front. Sounding profiles suggest that there could be some sporadic gusts near 55 mph mid to late afternoon into the early evening hours. More wind Tuesday as a dry, well mixed boundary layer will have overspread the area to the south of deep low pressure across the northern plains. Isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible Tuesday afternoon as cold air aloft rotates southward into the area. Will have top watch as these showers could help mix stronger winds aloft to the surface.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

An unsettled period is expected for the end of the work week. Upper level low pressure will slowly fill and weaken Wednesday across the northern plains. By Thursday it weakens further as it drifts southward into Nebraska before shifting east on Friday. Breezy northwest winds and shower chances will remain both Wednesday and Thursday with the upper low in the area. A reinforcing cold front will drop southeast across the area Friday as a shortwave drops southeast from Canada toward the Great Lakes. The weekend is looking dry with high temperatures likely into the lower 70s by Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Flight conditions will improve markedly from west to east with the passage of a Pacific front. The front is moving through Colo this morning. MVFR/IFR/local LIFR ceilings will be widespread ahead of the front. From 18z this afternoon onward, scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely east of highway 83. This flight concern should be east of ncntl Nebraska by 00z this evening.

VFR is expected throughout wrn/ncntl Nebraska from 00z this evening through 12z Tuesday morning, with one exception.
Scattered showers are possible across northwest Nebraska west of highway 61.

Aviators will continue to contend with LLWS, from the south this morning (WS020/17050KT)and then from the west tonight (WS020/28050KT).

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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