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FXUS63 KLBF 040437 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1037 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

KEY MESSAGES
- Gusty winds Sunday afternoon diminish this evening and overnight, but return with similar strength Monday afternoon and early evening.

- Weak frontal boundary passing through Monday will bring increased clouds and potential for flurries and/or sprinkles across much of the area.

- Much warmer with some fire weather concerns around the middle of the week.

- Turning cooler again with more appreciable precipitation chances for the weekend in the form or rain and/or snow but details remain uncertain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 314 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

The first of two cool fronts set to traverse the area has passed as of early Sunday morning. Winds quickly increased in the wake of this feature as a few gusts in the 50 to 55 mph range were noted at a couple sites with the majority of the area hovering in the 40 to 50 mph range. Though afternoon temperatures have managed to reach the upper 30s to middle 40s, looks have been deceiving as the strong winds have held "feels like" values in the upper 20s to 30s. Winds will decrease late this evening as the belt of enhanced flow around h85 shifts to the south and east, closer to the the main PV anomaly.
Winds will become light but never go completely calm. On top of this, clouds will be on the increase towards the early morning hours on Monday so not expecting as cold an overnight period with forecast lows holding in the 20s for much of the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 314 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Monday...A second cool front will quickly track into the area by midday, bringing renewed wind gusts across the area. This feature is driven by modest low-pressure diving south and east across North Dakota. The airmass in the wake of this feature will be Pacific in origin, with modestly increasing low-level moisture expected. As incoming cold air impinges on more seasonable h85 temperatures, weak fgen will develop favoring the Panhandle east through the southern Sandhills. As mid-level moisture increases, lift will focus in and immediately above the saturated layer. This may be enough to produce some flurries and/or sprinkles. Given lack of appreciable signals in HRRR/SREF guidance, which both show < 10% of seeing 0.01" or greater in any three hour period, believe impacts will be few if any so will keep the forecast free of measurable precipitation. Temperatures, similar to Sunday, will quickly climb after sunrise so believe any flurry potential will be short-lived and anything to occur would fall in the form of liquid. Did boost afternoon highs slightly, with values ranging from the low 40s in the north central to low 50s in the southwest. Winds will quickly increase by midday with peak gust speeds in the 35 to 45 mph range. Leaned heavily on HRRR/CONSShort timing of gusts which suggests winds diminishing by early evening to less than 30 mph across the area.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mid-level heights begin to rise towards mid-week as longwave troughing settles across the Northeast CONUS.
Ridging aloft quickly approaches from the west with the associated ridge axis expected to arrive by Wednesday. This will boost daytime temperatures up through the time frame. Afternoon highs will add a few degrees across the board for Tuesday, but quickly climb into the 60s to near 70s by Wednesday and Thursday which is roughly 20 to 30 degrees above normal. It's these days that Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) values peak locally around 0.6-0.8 with Shift of Tails (SoT)
values of zero. This supports anomalous warmth but stops short of suggesting values exceeding the extreme values of the model climatology. A look at records for the stretch suggests we shouldn't see any MaxT records broken with forecast values falling 8 to 12 degrees short at all climatological sites. With the anomalous warmth and anticipated dry air, will need to monitor for elevated fire concerns. These concerns will be increasing for Wednesday but be highest Thursday where greatest overlap of low humidity and strong winds will occur. That said, uncertainty surrounds fuel status given lingering snowpack and snow melt.

Friday and beyond...attention turns to the late week and the return of at least low-end precipitation chances to much of the area. Mid- level flow flattens by late Thursday. A northern stream disturbance will drag a cold front south through much of the Plains, which will usher in much cooler temperatures. Expect steadily dropping daytime temperatures Friday and Saturday with values falling to the upper 30s to lower 40s by Saturday. Latest guidance continues to suggest a more progressive mid-level disturbance. With the bulk of forcing for ascent in the form of greatest height falls and upper-level divergence, expecting the greatest precipitation chances to remain in these areas. Will maintain Slight Chance (< 25%) PoPs through Friday and Saturday. Thermal profiles will favor snow overnight with at least a rain/snow mix during the daytime. We'll see how things pan out in the next few days but folks with travel plans next weekend should closely monitor subsequent forecasts. Dry and mild conditions appear quick to return behind the departing system so expect a prompt return to above normal temperatures by the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

The main aviation concern will be some light rain across northern and central Nebraska on Monday with gusty winds returning for much of the region by late afternoon as well. Increasing clouds with decreasing ceilings across northern Nebraska are anticipated in advance of a weak disturbance. This disturbance will also produce some light rain creating minor impacts at both KLBF and KVTN. Behind this, strong winds are expected to return for the afternoon and into the evening with westerly gusts up to 25 to 35 knots. Winds will begin to diminish across KLBF by evening, with stronger winds continuing across KVTN into the evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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