SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Tonight, critical fire weather conditions continue across the western Sandhills, specifically Fire Zones 204 and 210 where a Red Flag Warning continues until 10 pm CDT this evening.
Overnight, southerly winds continue 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Lows will range from the upper 60s to low 70s

On Saturday, thunderstorm development is expected across the panhandle mid afternoon and spread into the western Sandhills into early evening. CAPE values will be from 500 to around 1000 J/kg in the late afternoon. SFC moisture will also be a little better as dew points will reach the upper 50s. Bufkit soundings show an inverted-V with deep mixing to above 600mb. Coverage of showers and storms looks to be scattered during the evening, mainly near and west of Highway 83. Damaging winds will be the main concern. Dry lightning will also be possible with any thunderstorm that does develop. Rainfall amounts will mostly range from a trace to two tenths of an inch, although local amounts could reach a half inch.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

On Sunday a shortwave trough will move into the area by the afternoon and becomes the focus for thunderstorm development.
CAPE will be sufficient, around 1500 to 2500 J/kg with deep layer shear 30-35kts. Surface dewpoints reach the 60s near and east of Highway 83. Areas east of Gordon through North Platte are forecast in a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, though coverage look more isolated.

The upper ridge will rebuild into the region Monday and Tuesday, before an upper trough moves into the Northern Plains on Wednesday. Expect temperatures to reach the triple digits across southwest Nebraska on Monday with many locations reaching or exceeding 100 degrees on Tuesday. A weak front could move in Wednesday, through medium range models differ. The southwest is likely to again surpass 100 degrees with mid to upper 90s elsewhere. Thursday into Friday, the upper ridge will become centered over the Great Basin, though little relief from the heat as highs still to reach the low to mid 90s. Most days will remain dry, with little or no rainfall expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow afternoon across western and north central Nebraska. Smoke may briefly reduce visibilities at times, though impacts are expected to remain minimal for western Nebraska terminals. Winds remain gusty from the south through this evening. A threat for low level wind shear then develops tonight as a low level jet strengthens from the south.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Critical fire weather conditions continue across Fire Zones 204 and 210 where a Red Flag Warning continues until 10 pm CDT this evening. Fine fuels are likely cured and live fuel moisture is likely limited due to recent hot and dry conditions. Elevated to near critical conditions will extend further to the east across Fire Zones 206 and 208. The threat for any dry lightning should be confined to Sheridan County based on the latest mesoscale models.

Saturday, hot temperatures in the mid 90s with windy conditions near and east of Highway 83. While humidity will be increasing, the potential for thunderstorms will also be increasing into the evening hours, especially west of Highway 83. Fire starts from lightning are a concern, along with strong, erratic winds near any storms.

Winds diminish Sunday through early next week, but hot and dry conditions with 90s to low 100s will persist through the middle of next week. This will keep fire weather conditions elevated to near critical well into next week, especially west of Highway 83.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204-210.