Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wood Lake, NE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

H5 analysis this morning had high pressure anchored over northeastern Texas. Ridging extended to the north-northeast into Wisconsin and the LP of Michigan. Low pressure was located approximately 300 miles off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula. The main feature of note across the CONUS this morning was the deep closed low along the central California coast. Downstream of this feature, southwesterly flow extended from the Four Corners, northeast into the Dakotas and Nebraska. Within this flow, numerous weak disturbances extended from the central Rockies, northeast into the high plains of the Dakotas, western Nebraska and eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming. A broad area of scattered rain showers continued to lift to the northeast across the forecast area earlier this morning and as of midday, this activity had moved northeast of the area. At the surface, a warm front was situated just to the south of the Kansas/Nebraska border this afternoon.
Temperatures south of this feature were generally in the 60s. North of the front, temperatures were in the 50s under a thick shroud of low clouds. The only place which had some clearing skies was over northern Sheridan County. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures ranged from 50 degrees at North Platte, Broken Bow, O'Neill and Ainsworth, to 56 degrees at Gordon.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Fog potential tonight, followed by thunderstorm chances late Wednesday into Wednesday night are the main forecast challenges in the near term.
Surface low pressure will deepen over northeastern Colorado tonight.
This will be in advance of an approaching shortwave trough, currently off the central California Coast. This feature by morning will be located over central Nevada. As the surface low deepens, a warm front, currently over Kansas will lift north, approaching the I- 80 corridor by sunrise Wednesday. Along and north of this feature, persistent easterly winds and moisture advection, will lead to fog development tonight. The latest HRRR and NAM12 visby products have below quarter mile visibility across the Sandhills tonight. The latest HRRR ensembles place a near 80 percent chance for visbys below 1/2sm over the Sandhills overnight. Feel confident enough in widespread and areas of fog in the Sandhills tonight and will insert this in the forecast. Also with a saturated boundary layer, decent low level lift and a non saturated mid layer, feel drizzle will be a good bet tonight, but the overall threat for measurable precipitation appears low. The warm front will continue to lift north during the day on Wednesday. However the latest NAM 12 soln does not lift this feature into southern South Dakota, as advertised in its 06z run from last night. The 12z HRRR compared to the 06z HRRR has mirrored this as well. That being said, will hold onto clouds during most of the day across the far northern forecast area and lower forecast highs tomorrow. By late afternoon, the higher resolution solutions develop convection in the panhandle and far northwestern forecast area. Believe thunderstorm formation will be highly conditional as forecast CAPE's are meager and generally in the 500 to 750J/KG range. East of the panhandle, temps will be warmer, however forecast soundings indicate a healthy cap Wednesday afternoon. Where the CAP is weak, deep layer shear is in the 50 to 60 KT range, which may be too strong to sustain updrafts. One area I am concerned about convection may lie INVOF the warm front, especially over the northwestern forecast area. Low level helicities are strong tomorrow afternoon/early evening over northwestern Nebraska. If convection can fire, wouldn't be surprised if we saw a briefly intense storm or two. Believe this will be an area for more detailed mesoanalysis tomorrow afternoon. Overnight, the warm front will lift into South Dakota. Broad forcing for thunderstorms will lift north as well into the western Dakotas, northeastern Wyoming and eastern Montana. For the remainder of the forecast area, it will be a mild night with readings in the 50s with most locations in the upper 50s. The current forecast low of 58 degrees for North Platte Thursday would tie the record low minimum temp for October 16th.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Thursday...Longwave trough over the Great Basin will gradually lift north and east, favoring a neutral to modest negative tilt as it crosses the central/northern Rockies. Western Nebraska should only fare a glancing blow as the brunt of upper-level dynamics remains to the northwest. That said, low-level forcing will increase as a cool front settles south out of western South Dakota. Highs will climb into the 70s ahead of the boundary but hold in the 60s behind.
Increasing WAA over the warm sector will promote isolated to widely scattered showers favoring east of Highway 83. Though mid-level lapse rates are fairly marginal, MUCAPE values climb to 500-1000 j/kg within a strongly sheared environment. This supports the mention of thunderstorms early in the day and continuing through the early evening. Currently, the latest Storm Prediction Center outlook for Thursday (Day 3) keeps a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) confined to the KS/CO border up to Highway 23 in far southwest Nebraska. Many deterministic solutions actually suggest weakening instability through the day, largely due to waning mid-level lapse rates. In addition to this, early activity largely driven by WAA will focus over South Dakota and afternoon PoPs will largely be tied to h85-h7 fgen. This will largely lag the surface boundary in a less favorable environment (stabilizing boundary layer, waning mid-level lapse rates). Therefore, believe the decision to keep the severe outlook mainly to our southwest is warranted at this time. With strong linear forcing, anomalous moisture, and shear vectors parallel to the boundary, do believe some threat for heavy rain bears watching due to training storms. NBM paints expansive probabilities of exceeding 0.50", upwards of 60-80%, within a narrow corridor. More precise and final placement of the greatest QPF will heavily rely on placement of the frontal boundary so slight variations of 10-20 miles for the max QPF could amount to a +/- 0.25" change. Folks should continue to monitor later forecasts for the latest regarding this potential.

Friday through Monday...a fairly quiet period of the forecast appears likely. Troughing will continue to lift north and east into southern Canada. As this occurs, a deep h5 low will take shape over southern Manitoba. This placement should keep most sensible weather limited to the Northern Plains. High pressure will work in from the west as upper-level ridging builds over the West Coast and eventually extends east into the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will waver somewhat with cooler values for Friday/Saturday, 60s falling to 50s/60s respectively, followed by a modest warm up as values return to upper 60s to middle 70s for Sunday/Monday. While central high pressure stays to our west, lightly westerly flow under largely clear skies should promote favorable conditions for the threat of frost. NBM probabilities of MinTs falling below 32F peak around 50- 70% across the west central Sandhills. Will cap mention at "Areas" for now and monitor going forward.

Tuesday and beyond...amplified shortwave ridging will settle into the central and southern Plains. Evolution of this pattern varies considerably between deterministic solutions beyond Tuesday.
Overall, a progressive pattern appears probable with multiple upper- level disturbances impacting much of CONUS. Timing of any particular system affecting the local area remains low confidence for now. That said, QPF probabilities show an appreciable signal sometime around Tuesday/Wednesday. While precipitation should largely favor rain, cooler air should fill in behind the system and lead to a brief period of more seasonable temperatures. Ensembles suggest this should be very short lived with highs likely returning to above normal values by the end of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Areas of IFR and LIFR can be expected tonight as a warm front lifts northward across the area. Areas of dense fog will occur with the low ceilings. Conditions will begin to improve from south to north Wednesday morning. east to southeast winds 5-10 kts tonight will increase from the southeast 10-20 kts during the day Wednesday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Wednesday for NEZ022>029-035>038-057-059.