Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wood Lake, NE

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

Mid and high clouds will linger over central and western Nebraska ahead of a cold front approaching from the west, though low level moisture continues to be largely absent. So while the front enters from the northwest just before daybreak and moves into eastern Nebraska by early Sunday afternoon, passage of the front should be dry with an outside chance of a sprinkle or flurry mainly north of Hwy 2 late Sunday through Sunday night. Will maintain a dry forecast for now as probabilistic guidance indicates the chance for any measurable precipitation is generally at or below 10 percent through daybreak Monday and mainly confined to the western sandhills/northern panhandle.
If later guidance stats to trend upward will revisit the need to mention some precipitation. Temperatures ahead of the front may surge into the lower 60s south of Interstate 80, though readings to the north will be cooler and once the front passes temperatures will stop their rise and generally be steady through the afternoon. What will also be noticeable with passage of the front is an increase in wind. There is up to a 70 percent chance for gusts at or above 40mph behind the front mainly north of Hwy 2 and especially up near Hwy 20 immediately behind the front with winds diminishing toward Sunday evening and Sunday night. However another surge of strong gusty winds will arrive from the northwest just before daybreak Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement depicting a significant chance in the pattern through the middle of next week as energy moving through the northern Rockies digs a deep, high amplitude trof over the Mississippi valley by Wednesday with another ridge building upstream overt the western US. This will bring very windy conditions and another shot of arctic air to the central and eastern US, though the cold will be just a glancing blow for us here in Nebraska.

A reinforcing cold front will move through Nebraska from the northwest on Monday with very strong and gusty winds surging in behind the front.
EFI guidance is showing a high confidence signal for strong winds though with SoT contours highlighting locations further north into the Dakotas and Bufkit showing only a brief spike with 50kt at the top of the mixed layer at KVTN and KIEN, anticipate peak gusts will stay in the 50 to 55mph range north of Hwy 2 and particularly near Hwy 20 from early Monday morning into Monday afternoon, with gusts 35 to 45mph more common to the south. With some increase in low level moisture along with modestly steep low level lapse rates near the surface and non-zero CAPE values, a couple of flurries or a snow shower can not be ruled out but confidence is low so will maintain a dry forecast for now and monitor later guidance closely for any upward trend in precipitation. Highs Monday will range from mid 40s south to mid 30s north.

A similar scenario will unfold for Tuesday afternoon as arctic high pressure builds down from Canada into the upper midwest with another surge of wind. While there is a better than even chance for gusts of 35 to 45mph, confidence in stronger winds is not as high as Monday since it may take deeper mixing to tap some of the higher momentum air aloft during a small window Tuesday afternoon. As with Monday, given marginal low level moisture and modestly steep low level lapse rates near the surface with non-zero CAPE values, a couple of flurries or a snow shower can not be ruled out but confidence is low so will maintain a dry forecast for now and monitor later guidance closely for any upward trend.
Temperatures Tuesday will range from low 40s south to mid 30s north and wind chills early Tuesday morning will be in the single digits.

As the core of the coldest air builds into the midwest, Wednesday will see a large gradient in temperatures with highs across southwest Nebraska in the upper 40s but only in the mid/upper 20s up toward northeast Nebraska near the Niobrara valley. The latter portion of next week will generally see a warming trend as the upper level pattern trends to dry zonal flow with temperatures at or above normal for the majority of central and western Nebraska.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1116 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

VFR will continue through the forecast period for western and north central Nebraska terminals as most sky cover will be high clouds. However, wind will be an aviation concern today as a cold front crosses the area. A rapid switch from west to north/northwest will occur midday, while a sudden increase in speed is also expected. Gusts will exceed 20 kts in the south (LBF) and 30 kts north (VTN) throughout the afternoon before tapering around sunset.



LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.