Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 9:20 PM Moonrise 2:36 AM   Moonset 6:55 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  News

FXUS63 KLBF 022328 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 628 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon/evening.

- Quiet conditions expected for Independence Day and Friday.

- Thunderstorm chances increase for Saturday.

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

H5 analysis this morning had high pressure anchored over the Mississippi Delta region with a ridge extending north northeast into the eastern Great Lakes. Another strong high was located approximately 800 miles off the coast of northern California.
Between the highs, a trough of low pressure was present from central Wyoming south into the Four Corners. Another low was located over southern Manitoba. At the surface, low pressure was centered over central Manitoba with a cold front extending south into southeastern Nebraska, then southwest into southwestern Kansas. Low pressure was also located along the front in north central Kansas. Abundant mid and high level cloud cover, in advance of the Wyoming disturbance (mentioned above)
continued to stream across the area this afternoon. This has led to some light rain showers across the area which have dissipated by midday. Another area of thunderstorms continues to track across the western Sandhills ATTM. This activity had produced some 40+ MPH wind gusts at Alliance earlier and continues to be monitored. Readings this afternoon ranted from 71 degrees at Gordon, to 80 degrees at Imperial and Ogallala.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Conditions should be relatively quiet tonight across the forecast area. Ongoing isolated storms over the Sandhills, is expected to dissipate by 6 PM CT per the latest CAM solutions.
With the loss of surface heating this evening, skies are expected to clear for the majority of the forecast area.
However, we may see some stratus development in the far southwest and southeastern panhandle overnight. This is a result of a plume of low level moisture pushing from far NW Kansas, NNW into far northeastern Colorado and the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Overnight lows will be in the 50s with possibly warmer temps in the far SW if moisture return and stratus materialize. Shifting to Wednesday, it is shaping up to be an active day across the area. A surface trough/dryline will become established early afternoon across the central Panhandle. With the latest CAMS and the NAM12 soln from this morning, convection initiates quickly along this boundary in the 18z-20z time frame. Ample deep layer shear and SB CAPES of 2500+ J/KG will allow storms to quickly grow and reach strong to severe limits quickly. The main severe threats initially will be large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado if storms can remain discrete, particularly west of highway 83. Very steep lapse rates in the hail growth zone and computed CAPE in the H700 to H600 layer exceeds 500 j/kg tomorrow afternoon. In addition, strong DCAPE is noted from the Panhandle east into the western Sandhills, supporting a strong wind threat. As the afternoon progresses, the severe mode will begin to shift to more of a wind threat as storms become more linear in nature. However, with a strengthening low level jet Wednesday evening, there continues to be a tornado threat, mainly along and east of highway 83 from Maywood, to Stapleton and points east. By late evening, the bulk of the severe threat will shift east of the area. As for flood potential, with robust PWATS around 1.5 inches noted across the area, wouldn't be surprised to see some 1-2 inch rainfall amounts with the stronger storms. As for flood potential, am not overly concerned about flooding attm, given the expected steering winds will be perpendicular to any line segments which do develop. This should ensure storm motion is high enough, to alleviate flooding potential. Additional thunderstorms, will track from the Black Hills into northern Nebraska overnight. These storms are in association with a cold front and strong upper level disturbance, which approaches the western Dakotas overnight Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The threat for showers and thunderstorms will linger over northern Nebraska into Thursday as the shortwave trough tracks across South Dakota. The bulk of this activity will be over northern Nebraska where the best instability exists. Further south, limited moisture and warmer temps aloft, should keep the southern half of the forecast dry on Independence day. Highs will run 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal, with readings ranging from the middle 70s over northern Nebraska, to the lower 80s in far southwestern Nebraska. Tranquil and mild conditions are expected for Friday and Saturday across the area. The next threat for showers and thunderstorms will arrive Saturday night into Sunday as a northern stream trough of low pressure aloft, tracks from North Dakota into Minnesota. This feature will force a cold front through the area Saturday night, leading to cooler readings in the upper 70s/lower 80s for Sunday. Temps will rebound back into the 80s for Monday and Tuesday with mainly dry conditions expected.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska through the period. Light and variable winds at 10kts or less, strengthening out of the southeast Wednesday afternoon, gusting up to 20kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

North Platte, NE,