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FXUS61 KALY 100044 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 744 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong storm system will impact the region Sunday through Monday with precipitation starting out as rain, locally heavy, then changing over to wet snow. Gusty winds will accompany this storm with some gusts up to 40 mph. In the wake of this storm, a few lake effect snow showers are possible Monday night into Tuesday and again on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
UPDATE...As of 730 PM EST, quick update to account for band of showers and sprinkles tracking east across the southern Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley. This seems to be just ahead of leading edge of low level jet and enhanced mid level warm advection. Some sprinkles could extend as far south as the Lake George/Saratoga region and perhaps southern VT over the next 1-2 hours, before ending from west to east.

Otherwise, localized pockets of cooling where breaks in the clouds have occurred and winds trended to calm. In these areas, temps have dropped into the mid/upper 30s, while remaining in the 40s where winds remain. Temps will likely fluctuate overnight as patches of clouds drift through.

PREVIOUS [405 PM EST]...An area of low pressure, located across the Great Lakes, will track northeastward toward Hudson Bay and Quebec as a cold front will advance eastward toward New York state. Mostly cloudy skies are expected through the overnight hours. Most areas will remain dry, though a few showers may develop toward daybreak across far western areas as the cold front approaches. Temperatures may vary from location to location again tonight due in part to whether or not areas remain in a breeze versus others that trend calm. Most areas should dip into the mid-30s to lower 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
Flood Watch in effect for the Capital Region and points south and east from Sunday afternoon through Monday

Winter Storm Watch in effect for all of Herkimer, Hamilton and Bennington counties from Sunday evening/night through Monday

Our storm system for Sunday and Monday looks to be taking a slightly eastward shift in its storm track. This has resulted in a slightly decreasing threat for heavy rain, but an increased threat for a heavy, wet snowfall, even across many valley areas.

A cold front will begin to advance eastward across the state on Sunday as an upper-level trough goes from a positive to a neutral tilt upstream across the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Increased lift along and ahead of the front will result in the development of a widespread rainfall. Rain for much of the day will be light to occasionally moderate in intensity. It will be mild ahead of the front with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. There will be a southerly breeze as well, especially for areas south and east of the Capital District, where a few gusts up to 35 mph will be possible during the afternoon hours.

By Sunday night, the cold front will begin to cross eastern New York and approach western New England. The upper trough will become negatively tilted and this will result in secondary surface low development along the front across the mid-Atlantic states. This surface low will quickly intensify as it lifts northeastward along the coast toward eastern New England. Our region will be located within the right entrance region of a 160+ kt upper-level jet and this will support plenty of lift for continued widespread precipitation on the cold side of the system.

Based on the latest track of the surface low, bands of heavy rainfall will mostly remain to the east of our area, though some pockets of heavy rain are still possible for areas mainly south and east of Albany. This is where rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches remain possible and also a continued flood threat. As a result, we have trimmed some areas out of the flood watch which includes Schenectady, Saratoga, Warren and Washington counties.
Will monitor trends to see if any additional areas may be able to be trimmed out. Areas within a flood watch still have the potential for some minor flooding in urban and poor drainage areas and some river flooding is also still possible. See more in the hydrology section below.

As colder air builds in behind the cold front Sunday evening, temperatures will fall to the lower to mid-30s where precipitation will change over to a heavy, wet snowfall. This will occur first across western areas and the higher elevations (later in the valleys) and gradually progress eastward overnight into Monday morning. Strong mid-level frontogenesis should result in some bands of heavier snowfall where rates, per latest SPC HRRR, could reach 0.5 inches per hour. However, the best lift will not intersect the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) per forecast soundings. This should limit snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour for most areas. Forecast soundings also suggest that it is possible the low- level cold air may undercut the warmer, above freezing air aloft (as the main trough axis is lagging behind this system) which could produce a brief transition to sleet before changing over to snow. There was not enough confidence to add sleet to the forecast but is worth noting at this time, but no impacts from sleet is expected.

With more QPF associated with snow versus rain, snowfall totals have increased in some areas. This had led to the Winter Storm Watch to be expanded to include southern Herkimer and Bennington counties. Areas within the Winter Storm Watch could see between 5 and 10 inches of snow. The heavy, wet nature of this snow combined with gusty winds could result in some downed trees and wires resulting in some power outages. Some light to moderate accumulations are possible elsewhere, including valley areas, which could lead to some hazardous travel for the Monday morning commute. Some winter weather advisories will be needed in later outlooks.

As the surface low moves into Maine by Monday afternoon, snowfall will gradually taper off from south to north, though some lake-effect and upslope snow showers are expected to continue into Monday evening for areas outside of the Hudson Valley. It will be much cooler on Monday with highs staying in the 30s. Gusty winds will be rather widespread on Monday with gusts between 30 and 40 mph, strongest across the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District and Berkshires. While we should remain under wind advisory criteria, it would be ideal to ensure any outdoor objects, especially holiday decorations, are properly secured.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
After an unsettled start to the week, more tranquil conditions are expected over the extended period.

Monday night into Tuesday morning, some light snow showers, mainly confined to the Western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley, will linger on the back side of Sunday night/Monday's storm continues to track further away from the region to the north.
Additional accumulations to what is expected to fall Monday will be maximized to just a few hundredths of an inch. The rest of the area will remain dry throughout the day Tuesday as heights briefly rise with a surface high dominating to the south.
Another brief period of minor precipitation comes Tuesday night into Wednesday as an upper-trough and parent surface low crosses overhead on its easterly track through southeastern Canada.
With this system comes a series of moisture-starved cold fronts that will induce some light, lake- enhanced snow showers that will look to be confined mainly to the higher terrain of the Western Adirondacks, Eastern Catskills and southern Greens. A broad area of high pressure encompassing much of the eastern CONUS will then build in to reinforce dry weather for the remainder of the week.

Despite the progression of a couple cold fronts Tuesday night into Wednesday, temperatures throughout the duration of the long term period look to remain relatively mild for mid- December. Highs Tuesday will range from the upper 30s to low 40s with low to mid 20s and pockets of upper 20s (+1500 ft) in the mountains. Things will cool down a few degrees Wednesday and Thursday upon the cool fropas with expected highs mainly in the mid to upper 30s and cooler above 1500 ft. Then, with the high well developed and westerly/southwesterly flow dominating, Friday and Saturday will bring the return of 30s and 40s across the region.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 00Z Monday...Mainly VFR conditions this evening, outside of any patchy ground fog that develops. Later tonight, MVFR Cigs are expected to develop closer to 12Z/Sun, with widespread MVFR/IFR Cigs developing after 15Z/Sun, along with Vsbys decreasing to MVFR as rain overspreads the TAF sites during the afternoon hours. A few periods of moderate rain will develop by late afternoon, possibly leading to areas of IFR Vsbys as well.

A cold front will cross through the region during the mid to late afternoon hours from west to east. This should track through the TAF sites between 22Z-24Z/Sun with a brief period of moderate to heavy rain and winds abruptly shifting into the west to northwest.

Winds will be south to southeast tonight at 5-10 KT, although may initially become light/variable to calm prior to midnight at KGFL/KPOU and KPSF. South to southeast winds will increase to 8-12 KT by mid morning Sunday, with some gusts of 20-25 KT possible, especially at KALB and KPSF. Winds will shift into the west/northwest between 22Z-24Z/Sun, with brief gusts possibly up to 25-30 KT.

Low level wind shear will develop overnight and continue into Sunday morning in areas where surface winds drop below 10 KT, as winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the south to southwest to 30-40 KT.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact
Definite RA
SN.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts
Definite RA
SN.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY
A storm system will bring a widespread rainfall to the region Sunday into Sunday night before ending as a period of wet snow by early Monday. Although model guidance has slightly shifted the heavier totals eastward, total liquid equivalent will be between 1.25 and 3 inches, with the highest amounts expected across the higher terrain of the Catskills and western New England.

As a result of the rainfall, urban and small stream flooding is expected. Some minor flooding on the main stem rivers is possible as well, based off the latest forecasts from the NERFC and MMEFS guidance, mainly for areas south and east of the Capital Region. These current forecasts suggest some minor flooding is possible along portions of the Housatonic River, the Walloomsac River near North Bennington, Schoharie Creek at Gilboa, and the Rondout Creek at Rosendale. Should the rainfall amounts be closer to the higher side of forecast ranges, there is a possibility that moderate flood stage may be approached on the Hoosic River at Eagle Bridge and Williamstown.

In addition, the latest outlook from the Weather Prediction Center maintains areas near and to the south/east of Albany within a marginal to slight Risk for excessive rainfall, with the general risk area shifted slightly south/east from previous outlook.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for NYZ047-051>054-058>061-063>066.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for NYZ032-033-038.
MA...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for VTZ013>015.
Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for VTZ013.

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