Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sharon Springs, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 332 PM EDT...Surface high pressure is located over the Lake Huron and it continues to build towards the Northeast.
Visible satellite imagery shows fairly clear skies across the region, with just a thin band of high cirrus clouds over the area. With the high pressure building into the area for tonight, it will remain fairly clear and dry for tonight, with just some thin cirrus for northern areas.

Winds have been breezy today thanks to good mixing and a strong pressure gradient in place. Northwest winds will continue to be gusty over the next few hours with some gusts over 25 mph at times, but these should decrease significantly after sunset with the loss of daytime mixing. As the high pressure area gets closer to the area, winds should decrease to 5 mph or less by midnight or so.

With the diminishing wind and mostly clear sky, good radiational cooling is expected. Have leaned on the lower side of the blended guidance for lows with mins ranging from the mid 20s in the Adirondacks to the mid 30s in the mid Hudson Valley and Capital Region.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
After a cool and mostly clear start to the day on Monday, clouds will start to increase by the late morning and into the afternoon hours, as the next system starts to approach from the west. The winds will be fairly light to start the day, but will switch to the south by the afternoon hours. Temps will be fairly similar to Sunday, with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to low 60s for most spots (some mid 50s in the highest terrain).

As low pressure heads across the Great Lakes, a warm front will be southwest of the area. With some isentropic lift in place, a few light rain showers may spread from southwest to northeast across the Mohawk Valley, Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region and Capital Region for the late afternoon hours. The bulk of the area will be staying dry and this activity looks fairly light and spotty, as moisture will be limited.

Another round of showers is expected for Monday evening into Monday night, as the storm's occluded front heads towards the area. POPs will be a little higher with this activity, but precip still looks fairly light, with the best chance for seeing around 0.25" over the Adirondacks. Most areas will wind up seeing around a tenth of an inch or so. Otherwise, it will be cloudy for Monday night with temps in the 40s.

Although a few showers may linger in eastern areas for early Tuesday morning, Tuesday should be a dry day with decreasing clouds behind the departing frontal boundary. Skies will start out mostly cloudy in the morning, but it should be mostly clear by evening. Despite being behind the front, temps still look comfortably mild for Tuesday, especially for southeastern areas, where temps will still reach the lower to middle 70s. Meanwhile, the Adirondacks and upper Mohawk Valley will be cooler having the front gone through earlier in the day, with temps in the 50s and 60s. Quiet weather is expected for the entire area for Tuesday night with no precip and lows in the 30s and 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key Message:

- Moderate to high confidence for fair and dry weather Wed-Thu with temps trending above normal.

Discussion:

Surface high pressure will be passing across the Northeast for Wednesday into Thursday. It will be then moving offshore the New England coast for Friday. As a result, dry and comfortable conditions are expected for Wednesday into Thursday with partly to mostly clear skies. Daytime temps will be well into the 60s for valley areas on Wednesday, with temps reaching the lower to middle 70s in valley areas on Thursday and Friday. Mainly 40s are expected at night. The dry weather could promote some increased fire weather conditions, although RH won't be extreme (generally 35% or above) and winds don't look strong.

The next chance for widespread rain may arrive for later Friday into Friday night, as a storm system approaches from the Great Lakes. At this time, rainfall doesn't look excessive or hazardous at this time, with the highest chances for Friday night into early Saturday. NBM probabilities for total rainfall for Friday and Saturday look high for at least 0.25" across the region, but probabilities are under 25% for over an 1.00" of rainfall. There remains some uncertainty when precip shuts off and models are showing differing opinions on how much into Saturday precip may linger, but it's possible that a good part of the day could be rain-free. The clouds/lingering precip may keep temps a little cooler on Saturday compared to Friday, but at least 60s still look to be a good bet. Drier and seasonable weather is expected for Sunday.

AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 00z Tuesday...VFR conditions continue through the end of the TAF period. An approaching weather system arrives towards the end of the TAF period with low VFR ceilings. Winds are forecasted to be light and variable overnight becoming more southerly tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night to Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

FIRE WEATHER
Special Weather Statement remains in effect through 7 pm this evening for the Catskills and Hudson Valley FDRAs in New York, the Berkshires in western Massachusetts and Litchfield County CT. RH values have been as low as 30 percent this afternoon and northwest winds have been gusting up to 30 mph. Although some rainfall occurred on Saturday, fine fuels are dry enough that the combination of wind and low RH may allow for any fires to spread rapidly if they were to occur.

Winds will diminish this evening and RH will rise overnight with continued clear skies. On Monday, winds will be lighter than Sunday, with southerly winds generally under 10 mph for most of the time. Although RH may briefly lower to around 30 to 40 percent around midday, they will be rising late in the day as the next storm system approaches. Some light rain showers are expected across the region for late Monday into Monday night.
Dry weather is expected for Tuesday through Thursday.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.