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FXUS61 KALY 091145 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 645 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather is expected today, with milder temperatures and a partly to mostly cloudy sky. A strong storm system will bring rain to the region on Sunday, although colder air quickly arriving behind it will allow many areas to end as wet snow for Sunday night into early Monday. Some of the rain will be locally heavy with the potential for flooding and winds will be rather gusty, especially behind the storm for Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 645 AM EST...Upper level ridge axis is centered over the area early this morning, with a large trough digging over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a nearly stationary boundary is located southwest of the area over the northern Mid Atlantic States, but this front will be starting to lift northward towards the area as a warm front for today. Surface high pressure is currently in place both north and east of the region, but these high pressure areas will be moving eastward through the morning hours, as the front starts to lift towards the area.

Ahead of the boundary, mid level clouds are already overspreading the region and riding around the ridge. IR satellite continues to show fairly widespread clouds from the Capital Region on northward. To the south, there has been some clearing, but this has allowed some fog and low clouds to form.

Temps are variable early this morning. Sheltered areas have seen temps in the upper 20s to low 30s, while areas that have started to see a southerly breeze ahead of the approaching front (especially larger north-south valleys) have begun rising into the mid 30s to lower 40s. With an expected south to southeast breeze to develop, all areas will see temps jump up this morning.

Through the day today, the ridge axis will be shifting eastward, while the trough continues to slide eastward towards the Great Lakes. It will continue to be dry through the entire day, although upstream satellite imagery would suggest skies are fairly cloudy through the day. Best chance of seeing periods of sun will be across southern and southeastern parts of the area.
Despite the clouds, temps will be mild, thanks to the south to southeast flow and warmer temps aloft. Most spots will see highs in the mid to upper 40s, with even some lower 50s across far southeastern areas, where a few more breaks are possible.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Upper level ridge axis will continue departing off to the east for this evening, passing off to Atlantic Canada for tonight.
Meanwhile, a full latitude positively tilted upper level trough will be moving eastward across the Midwest and Mississippi Valley towards our area. The strong surface cold front will be heading across the Ohio Valley and will be reaching western New York towards daybreak Sunday. While most of the night will be dry, some showers may start to spread into northwestern areas by the late night hours. With the strong southerly flow ahead of the front, temps won't be falling much overnight. Lows will be either in the evening or earlier in the overnight in the mid 30s to lower 40s, with temps holding steady or rising late. With temps (both at the surface and aloft) plenty warm enough, no freezing/frozen precip is initially expected, with all rain arriving for late night and into early Sunday.

As the front continues to push eastward on Sunday, a steadier and heavier rainfall will develop across the area, especially just along and ahead of the actual boundary. All areas should be seeing a fairly steady rainfall by Sunday afternoon, with some rainfall rates even approaching two tenth per hour at times.
This rainfall will be allowing for ponding of roadways and in low lying areas. NYS Mesonet obs suggest the ground is still unfrozen in most locations, but with the vegetation shut down for the season, much of the precip will lead to runoff. Some minor river flooding is possible. Model trends have been further east with the heaviest rainfall, although there still appears enough QPF for some hydro issues in our area. See the hydro section below for more details as well. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out for far southeastern areas as well, although the latest 00z SPC HRRR does seem to suggest the best chance for any positive MUCAPE remains southeast of our area closer to the coast. Ahead of the front, it will be very mild, despite the clouds and rain. Much of the area will see highs in the 50s, with even mid to upper 40s across the high terrain.

The front will be crossing the area for late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Its eastward progress will be starting to slow as a wave of low pressure starts to develop along the boundary over the mid Atlantic States. With the wave developing along the front, steady precip will be lingering across our area through Sunday night on the cool side of the front. As the colder air arrives at low levels behind the boundary, there will be a change over to snow. This will first occur for northwestern and high terrain areas (Adirondacks and Catskills), but even some valley areas (including the Capital Region) could see a change over to snow, as temps fall into the 30s. The snow will initially be rather wet and heavy, with low SLR, but this will gradually improve over time, as colder air continues to work towards the area. Precip will continue into Monday morning, especially for the high terrain and western New England, but there will be a gradual shutoff in the steadiest precip towards midday Monday. The high terrain may continue to see some additional precip through the day thanks to upslope flow, but most areas will be done with the precip by early Monday afternoon.

There still is a lot of uncertainty regarding snowfall amounts and exactly which areas change over and how quickly it accumulates. At this point, the Adirondacks seem most likely for a period of heavier snow, with 5 to 10 inches possible there. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties. Other high terrain areas (such as the southern Greens, eastern Adirondacks and eastern Catskills)
could see some light to moderate accumulation as well, although it will depend on how much steady precip remains once temps get cold enough, although upslope certainly will help add through the day Monday. For valley areas, there isn't enough certainty in temps getting cold enough for significant accumulation.
However, a few hour period of steady precip right around daybreak Monday is possible as temps are crashing, so can't rule out some light accumulation, which also may line up with the morning commute, so this could have an impact on the area.

There is also a wind threat with this storm, although latest trends seem to suggest the highest threat for this will be east of our area. Ahead of the boundary, there will be a strong southerly low-level jet, especially for Sunday afternoon and evening. Model sounding seems to suggest there should a fairly strong inversion in place, which could inhibit the best gusts from reaching the surface. CAMs suggest the highest gusts will generally be east of the area over New England. Still, some gusts over 35 mph are possible for the high terrain, as well as southeastern areas. In addition, west to northwest winds will be gusty behind the system as well, especially on Monday afternoon and evening. Some gusts over 35 mph are possible here as well, especially within the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires. We will need to continue to monitor for the potential for needing a Wind Advisory, although the values (as of right now) may come just short for most locations.

Temps will be holding steady or even slowly falling on Monday as the storm departs. While much of the area will be in the 30s, some low 40s are possible for southern areas. With the gusty winds, it will feel even colder, especially compared to the mild weekend.

Some lingering snow showers or flurries may continue into Monday night across the highest terrain, but additional accumulation will be light. All areas will fall into the 20s, with a continued gusty westerly breeze.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
El Nino-like weather pattern expected for the long-term forecast period with positive H500 geopotential heights yielding a milder than normal and dry weather pattern over eastern New York and western New England.

The extended begins on Tuesday where a 1030-1035 hpa sfc high over the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast will flatten in response to a weak shortwave clipper-like system that will eject from central Canada into East-southeastern Canada as it rounds the base of a mid-upper trough. With most of the energy, forcing, and moisture displaced further to the north, this weak clipper-like system will only clip our very northwestern zones (i.e. northern Herkimer) with most of the initial precipitation along/ahead of a cold front being located over northern New York and to a greater extent over Ontario and Quebec. That said, a pair of cold fronts in connection with this weak system could trigger a response off of lake Ontario in the form of some lake effect snow shower as winds shift out of the west- northwest, and colder air (i.e. 850 mb temps between -10C to -15C)
advects into the region and rides over the warmer Lake Ontario waters (i.e. upper 30s to lower 40s Fahrenheit) Tuesday evening/night through Wednesday night. Confidence in lake effect snow showers is greatest over portions of the southern ADKs and western Mohawk Valley Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Most other places are expected to remain mainly dry with maybe only some isolated snow showers or flurries that reach parts of the rest of the forecast area. Have only low grade (20-30%) chance PoPs Tuesday night through Wednesday night for the western Mohawk Valley into the southern ADKs.

Lake effect snow showers come to an end Wednesday night as higher geopotential heights develops overhead and a 1035-1040 mb surface high over the central U.S. move into the region. Dry and tranquil weather will persist through the remainder of the long-term period with these features in place.

Temperatures will start off mild on Tuesday before trending downward on Wednesday. Temperatures will then rebound on Thursday and to a greater extent on Friday as stronger positive geopotential heights move into the region. Overall, temperature anomalies will average out to be milder than normal for early December standards for the balance of the period. High temperatures for Tuesday are progged to be in the low to mid 40s along the river valleys (30s higher elevations). Cooler on Wednesday amid the cold fropa as highs are expected to top out in the mid 30s north to lower 40s south along the river valleys (20s higher elevations). Temperatures show slight moderation on Thursday with highs expected to top out in the upper 30s north to lower 40s south along the river valleys (20s higher elevations especially north of I-90). Finally, on Friday, temperatures further improve with highs in the mid to upper 40s along the river valleys (upper 30s to lower 40s higher elevations).
Overnight low temperatures are expected to be mainly in the 20s Tuesday night through Thursday night with the warmest locations near 30F and the coldest locales in the teens to lower 20s. By Friday night, overnight lows are expected to moderate into the lower 30s along the river valleys (upper 20s higher elevations).

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 12z Sunday....A mix of VFR-MVFR clouds have made it's way the the local forecast area this morning as clouds have steadily lowered in elevation from overnight. In addition to the ceilings, there still remains some patchy mist out there giving way to MVFR visibilities. These MVFR conditions are occurring at KPSF and KPOU at this hour. Through the day today, expect for low VFR to MVFR ceilings to persist as a warm front continues to approach the area from the west.

Light and variable to calm winds from overnight will develop out of the south later this morning and into this afternoon between 5-12 kts with gusts between 15-20 kts, particularly over KPSF and KALB.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact
Definite RA
SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts
Likely RA
SN.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY
A storm system will bring a widespread rainfall to the region Sunday into Sunday night before ending as a period of wet snow by early Monday. Although model guidance has slightly shifted the heavier totals eastward, total liquid equivalent will be between 1.50 and 2.50 inches for most locations. Locally higher amounts of around or in excess of three inches cannot be ruled out across the higher terrain of the Catskills and western New England

As a result of the rainfall, urban and small stream flooding is expected. Some minor flooding on the main stem rivers is possible as well, based off the latest forecasts from the NERFC and MMEFS guidance, mainly for areas south and east of the Capital Region. The latest outlook from the Weather Prediction Center has placed areas south and east of Albany in a slight risk for excessive rainfall with a marginal risk elsewhere.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for NYZ041>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for NYZ032-033.
MA...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for VTZ013>015.

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