Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hartwick, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 160600 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 100 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. A few lake effect snow showers or flurries will be around early this morning across the north. A round of light snow then skirts northeast PA later this morning and early afternoon. A more substantial winter storm will then bring a wintry mix to the area this evening into Tuesday as it moves through the Mid- Atlantic region. Turning much colder with numerous snow showers around the region midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/.

1230 AM Update . Minor adjustment to the near term forecast to better hone in on a period of light snow from about 7am to noon today across NE PA. This was based on the latest HRRR and 3km NAM-Nest data. Accumulations will be a dusting to less than 1 inch here.

750 pm update . Only minor adjustments made to the forecast this evening, bringing in the latest observations and high resolution model guidance. Still keeping with the diminishing snow showers south to north this evening and overnight before a slow progression of light snow moves in from the south over mainly ne PA during the day tomorrow. Light snow amounts still expected south of the NY/PA border, with a mix of rain not out of the question in the Wyoming Valley in the afternoon. Main change was to keep the mention of snow out of the srn tier of NY until after 7 pm Monday.

12 pm update . Keep the snow showers going across the twin tiers this afternoon. No signs of quitting yet. connection to Lake Huron continues. That should all change toward sunset with low level lift waning due to the short wave passing now and diurnal heating.

930 am update . Light lake effect snow continues this morning across most of the area with cloudy skies. Accumulations are light to almost nothing in the valleys with temperatures mostly in the mid 30s. Winter weather advisory runs until 1 PM for northern Oneida. This looks fine and will let it finish. Radar returns close to 30 dbz so maybe another inch or two on the Tug. Upped pops, temps, and clouds.

240 AM update . Lake effect snow showers will continue to skirt Northern Oneida County, where a winter weather advisory remains in effect. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected in the advisory area north of a Camden to Remsen line.

Elsewhere, a mainly quiet day is forecast for Sunday. Winds will remain gusty through the afternoon with frequent gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Temperatures will reach the middle 30s under cloudy skies.

A thin band of lake effect snow will form in northwest flow Sunday night and affect Onondaga County. Light snow amounts are forecast.

A winter storm sliding out of the Mid-Atlantic will spread snow and mixed precipitation into our forecast area Monday afternoon. The snow will reach our PA counties initially and spread northward after dark. A light coating of freezing rain is anticipated over portions of NEPA Monday afternoon.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Low pressure developing across the Tennessee valley Monday afternoon, moving northeast and grazing southern PA before pushing off the NJ coast Monday night into Tuesday. Deterministic models as well as ensembles continue to trend colder and more southerly, which seems still like a reasonable solution with cold high pressure holding strong over Quebec and New England for much of the day Monday. Light snow begins mainly after sunrise Monday in our NE PA counties, pushing northward to just graze the NY border into the evening before snow slowly pushes northward through the rest of our NY counties through 6Z. By that time, the freezing line will have pushed into NE PA and Sullivan County NY, allowing for a transition to a wintry mix with snow, sleet, and freezing rain generally south of a line from Monticello - Meshoppen - Canton. This should start to track into the northern tier PA counties by sunrise. With this latest update, a wintry mix has been kept mainly south of Rte-17/I-86 corridor, and south of a line from Stamford - Delhi - Deposit in Delaware county with mainly snow to the north. Periods of snow and wintry mix continue through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon, then starts to taper off through the late afternoon and evening with the cold front passing through and a dry slot starting to work into NE PA.

Snow and ice totals have not changed very much with this update, with a general 1 to 3 inches of snow across NE PA and 2 to 4 inches across central NY. Localized amounts of up to 5 inches are possible across central NY in any heavier bands. Meanwhile, a glaze of ice would be possible across NE PA and into the western Catskills - especially across the higher elevations. Lighter snow/ice would be expected across the river valleys of NE PA and throughout Luzerne county, where there is a better chance for a change entirely over to rain as temperatures peak in the mid/upper 30s.

Given the risk for accumulating ice across portions of the western Catskills and NE PA, have decided to issue an advisory for Sullivan county, southwestward to Wyoming and Luzerne counties starting Monday evening. Northward expansion to this cannot be ruled out, but with the uncertainty regarding where the freezing line will set up, will hold off on this for now.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. 2 pm update . Very little change to the Tuesday night to Thursday period. No change to the Friday to Sunday period. Models are in good agreement.

Tuesday night temperatures near normal with lake effect snow continuing. Flow shifts from west to southwest ahead of the next system. Wednesday big changes as a nearly stacked low drops southeast into the area from Hudson Bay with arctic air. Snow showers and squalls likely in the afternoon. Behind it more lake effect snow but flow too far out of the north and too cold to add up to much. Snow amounts for now under advisory. Temperatures fall into the teens and single digits with little recovery until Friday. High pressure moves in late Thursday shutting the lake effect machine down.

previous discussion . Tuesday night: The previous system exits quickly eastward, with a weak surface ridge nudging into the region. There could still be some scattered snow showers or flurries north from lake effect, as cold air advection takes hold and 850mb temps fall to around -10C. Late at night a large, very cold upper level low begins to approach from the Great Lakes region . this should turn the low level winds more southwesterly, shifting the lake effect snow showers further north . but shower off of Lake Erie could spread into Steuben county, and even into the rest of central NY as the fetch and wind speeds increase.

Wednesday: Model guidance has come in rather good agreement that a strong, arctic frontal boundary will cross the region during the day. Southwest winds early in the day shift west-northwest behind the front. Snow showers and possible squalls are expected along and behind the front. This looks to be a high PoP, low QPF/snow amount scenario. However, as temperatures fall into the teens and low 20s late in the day winds will also increase between 15-25 mph, with higher gusts. This will mean that there could be blow snow, and significantly reduced visibility in the snow showers and squalls. We will continue to closely monitor this potential . generally snow amounts should be a coating to 2 inches across Central NY, with less than 1 inch in NE PA before sunset. High temperatures will be lucky to reach 25-30 out ahead of the front . 850mb temperatures fall to around -20C by sunset with 1000-500mb thicknesses falling below 504dm.

Wednesday night: The coldest air mass thus far of the winter season will be over the area. Guidance is in good agreement for 850mb temperatures between -20 to -25C and thicknesses bottoming out around 500dm. A blustery, frigid northwest flow will continue to spray lake effect snow showers and flurries across the region. Northwest winds remain between 10-20mph, creating areas of blowing snow and wind chills between 0 and 15 below. Actual air temperatures should fall into the single digits for most areas . except lower teens in the Wyoming Valley of NE PA . and 0 to 5 below across northern Oneida county.

Thursday: A piece of arctic air remains over the region as an upper level low swings across the region. Very cold air mass and unsettled conditions are expected with scattered snow showers for our lake snow effect areas and flurries or a few snow showers further south. Highs will struggle to get into the mid teens to lower 20s with overnight lows in the single digits north and teens for NE PA. If the operational GFS and ECMWF are to be believed temperatures will still have to be adjusted even further downward given the modeled boundary layer temperatures.

Friday and Saturday: The cold upper level low slowly moves east, with ridging, both aloft and at the surface trying to move in from the west. However, there are now model differences with the GFS stalling the cold upper level low nearby much longer than the ECMWF due to downstream blocking. For now, went close to the NBM guidance for temperatures this period . which is trending colder. The lake effect snow showers should end either way as a strong and dry surface high builds over the region. Latest forecast now has high in the mid 20s to low 30s Friday, reaching the low to mid-30s on Saturday. Still cold under light winds Friday night . lows in the teens.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/.

Lake effect snow showers are quickly tapering off to just flurries near KSYR and KRME early this morning. Otherwise, expect generally VFR conditions with sct to bkn clouds between 3.5 to 6k ft agl streaming across the area. VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the the daytime hours today for most terminals. The except will be KAVP where a period of light snow is possible from about 14-17z this morning, and tempo mvfr vsbys and/or cigs are possible. Otherwise, expect mid and high level clouds across the rest of the region today.

This evening, a period of steady snow will gradually lift north from central PA into our area by late evening or overnight. The snow should reach KAVP between 17/01-04z . with conditions quickly becoming mvfr/fuel alternate, then IFR prior to 17/06z. Some sleet could mix in here.

The snow should reach the southern tier of NY (KBGM/KELM) between 17/03-06z . with restrictions developing here shortly thereafter. The snow likely reaches KITH between about 17/05-08z and finally KSYR and KRME between about 17/08-11z. Will hone in on the details for these central and northern sites in future taf updates, as we get closer in time.

Outlook .

Late Tonight and Tuesday . MVFR/IFR restrictions with a wintry mix.

Wednesday and Wednesday night . MVFR/IFR restrictions with snow showers and squalls in CNY. MVFR AVP.

Thursday . VFR. Possible restrictions in CNY due to lingering lake effect snow showers.

Thursday night and Friday . VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ043-044-047-048-072. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ062.

SYNOPSIS . MJM NEAR TERM . BJT/TAC/MJM SHORT TERM . HLC/MJM LONG TERM . MJM/TAC AVIATION . MJM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY	77 mi	102 min	Calm	28°F			1022 hPa	20°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	93 mi	66 min	SW 1 G 2.9				1022.7 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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W34 G42

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY	40 mi	19 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	24°F	21°F	88%	1023.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRME

Wind History from RME (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (4,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY

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