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LOZ044 Expires:202311301030;;636707 Fzus51 Kbuf 300548 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1248 am est Thu nov 30 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-301030- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1248 am est Thu nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Overnight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Rain. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers likely Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 301724 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1224 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Warmer conditions are expected on Thursday, with also plenty of sunshine in the forecast. Our next system arrives on Friday with temperatures supporting rain showers. The weekend will have additional shower chances with mild, above average temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
950 AM Update...

Forecast remains on-track. Made some minor adjustment to cloud cover based on latest METSAT, but no other changes are needed at this time.

630 AM Update...
Clear skies resulted in a cooler start to the morning with temperatures a few degrees lower than forecasted. As a result temperatures and dew points were adjusted using a blend of current observations and NBM. Sky grids were also updated using satellite imagery to expand the clearing into the northern parts of our region. Otherwise the previous forecast remains on track at this time.

330 AM Update...
Weak upper level ridge moves in today with quiet weather expected over our region. Southwesterly flow brings in warm air advection allowing temperatures to climb into the low to mid 40s this afternoon. Partly sunny skies are expected throughout most of the day with a few periods of completely clear skies. Temperatures overnight remain mostly above freezing with lows raging in the low to mid 30s. The Catskill region has the potential to see lows fall into the upper 20s with clear skies lingering longer over this area.

Clouds will begin to fill in early Friday morning as a low pressure system approaches our region from the southwest. With southerly flow continuing temperatures return to the low to mid 40s. As a result precipitation will fall as rain, with light showers moving in Friday morning. Rainfall will become more steady in the afternoon with a focus over central NY. Overall rainfall totals with this system range from 0.15-0.40 inches over central NY, while northeast PA can expect to see totals mostly under 0.05 inches.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
355 AM Update

This period starts off with showers around the region Friday night, as the initial main rain shield lifts north and the low pressure center slowly approaches from the Ohio Valley. A moist southerly flow will be over the area during the overnight, keeping temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s and precipitation type looks to be all rain. A stationary boundary sets up along the south shores of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during the day on Saturday...with the weak low pressure system moving along this boundary. The deeper moisture and more numerous showers will be closer to this boundary across Central NY; with only isolated showers expected further south for the immediate NY Southern Tier and Northeast PA. There will be plenty of clouds around for most of the area on Saturday, but being south of the stationary/warm front will bring south-southwest winds 8-15 mph. This set up will allow temperatures to reach the low to mid-50s from the Twin Tiers south across NE PA...further north it will be in the mid to upper 40s for the rest of Central NY. More of the same expected Saturday night, as the warm front remains north of our CWA. This means more clouds, patchy drizzle or isolated showers around.
Temperatures remain very mild, with lows in the mid-30s to lower 40s forecast.

Sunday morning may start off mainly dry, but then showers chances increase for the afternoon, with showers becoming likely Sunday night. There are some model differences for this portion of the forecast, so confidence in details is lower. Overall, guidance shows a potent upper level trough approaching from the Central Great Lakes region heading into Sunday night...and this initiates surface low development either across the Ohio Valley and/or over the Mid- Atlantic region. The 00z ECMWF has a stronger coastal low compared to the 00z GFS and 00Z CMC. The general theme for our area would be periods of rain showers moving in, and overspreading the area Sunday night...some wet snow could mix in over the higher elevations toward Monday morning as temperatures aloft cool below 0C at 850mb and surface temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s. QPF amounts remain uncertain with this potential system at this time.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
355 AM Update

This period will feature a cooling trend, with unsettled weather and probably some lake effect as an upper level trough slides over the region. The above mentioned low pressure system will be exiting off to the north and east by Monday, with much cooler air moving in behind the front. 850mb temperatures look to fall to around -5C later in the day Monday. This will awaken the great lakes, with lake effect rain and snow showers likely Monday into Monday night.
Surface temperatures are forecast to be somewhat mild initially, in the upper 30s to mid-40s Monday afternoon...but these fall below freezing by Monday evening and into the mid-20s to lower 30s for overnight lows. This thermal profile will allow for lingering lake effect showers to transition to all snow.

The lake effect snow showers (possibly mixed with rain in valleys) continue on Tuesday, with a west/northwest flow expected and 850mb temperatures holding at -10C over the area.
By Wednesday, there is decent agreement in the latest guidance that a clipper system will move somewhere across the Central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley eastward into the Mid- Atlantic/Northeast.
There remains uncertainty in the exact timing, track, intensity and amount of moisture this clipper low will have...but chances are there for a period of snow showers over or nearby Central NY and NE PA. Otherwise, lingering lake effect showers look to continue in the cold northwest flow pattern. It remains slightly colder (around 5 degrees) than average through the middle of next week with highs in the 30s and overnight lows in the low to mid-20s.

AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions are in place until late Friday morning to early Friday afternoon. Winds will increase this afternoon, with gusts nearing 20 knots at times out of the south and southwest.
Low level wind shear is expected with stronger winds aloft out of the SW heading in this evening. Model guidance supports LLWS developing around 00Z Friday lasting into Friday morning at most terminals.

MVFR ceilings and rain will be pushing into the area towards the end of the forecast period. Have included at all locations except AVP, however forecast confidence is low on the exact timing and restrictions may hold off until after 18Z tomorrow.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon...Restrictions likely, especially afternoon and evening as a weather system brings rain and fog to the area.
Some wet snow could mix at times over the hilltops.

Saturday through Monday...Possible restrictions due to rain showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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Albany
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Thu -- 01:11 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     3.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:29 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:11 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:59 PM EST     5.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 PM EST     Moonrise
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Albany, New York, Tide feet

Castleton-on-Hudson
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Thu -- 12:42 AM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:33 AM EST     3.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:28 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:42 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:42 PM EST     5.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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Albany, NY,