Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Morris, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 040951 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 551 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Unsettled weather will remain over the region through tonight as weak disturbances pass through, while tropical system Isaias races up the east coast. High pressure will build across the region late Wednesday with near normal temperatures and a dry weather pattern through the end of the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Regional radars showing just a few showers across western New York early this morning. More widespread showers starting to work into eastern New York, as moisture well in advance Isaias continues streaming northward.

Complicated forecast today with the bulk of the impacts from Isaias staying off to our east, although the western edge of the moderate to heavy tropical rain shield could reach portions of the North Country this afternoon, with the heaviest rainfall likely to stay east of Interstate 81. Further west, the combination of increasing moisture and diurnal heating will likely bring a blossoming of showers and thunderstorms, with the best chances from the Genesee Valley to the western Finger Lakes. Severe risk looks limited, but could certainly see some tropical downpours. The tropical system will lift out quickly tonight allowing a cold front to sweep across the region. Shortwave moving through and lingering instability due to cooler air crossing Lake Ontario will maintain the chance for a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm southeast and east of Lake Ontario.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. An upper level low will move east out of Ontario into Quebec on Wednesday. Cyclonic flow aloft will combine with some lingering moisture in the wake of Isaias and even some lake enhancement to aid a west/southwest upslope flow (850Ts dip down into the upper single digits C). This will produce a few showers east of Lake Ontario during the first half of the day (most prevalent over the terrain), with dry conditions elsewhere. By Wednesday afternoon, drier will make it into the North Country as high pressure continues to build in from the southwest, drying things out here as well. Surface high pressure will then settle across the region through the remainder of the period providing dry, quiet weather through Thursday night.

Otherwise, temperatures will be below normal through the period, which is quite the rarity so far this summer season. Wednesday will be the coolest day with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s. In fact, some areas across the interior higher terrain may possibly only top out in the upper 60s. Combine this with dew points in the low to mid 50s and a brisk westerly breeze, it will feel very refreshing outside. Expect much of the same on Thursday, with highs a few degrees warmer and a much lighter breeze.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. An upper level trough will approach from the upper Great Lakes on Friday, while a weak wave of surface low pressure moves south of our area. Although mainly dry weather is expected to end the work week, there may be enough moisture/lift associated with these features to bring a few showers/isolated thunderstorm to the Southern Tier Friday afternoon into the first part of Friday night. Aside from a diurnally driven shower or storm Saturday or Sunday afternoon/early evening across the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier, weak ridging should provide mainly dry weather for the majority of the weekend. A moist southwesterly flow will develop on Monday as high pressure slides east of the area, while an upper level trough over the upper Great Lakes approaches the region. Increasing low level moisture and lowering heights aloft combined with diurnal heating will bring the next better chance for some showers and storms to start the work week.

Near normal temperatures to start the period will trend above average by the weekend into the start of next week, along with a noticeable uptick in humidity as we progress through the period.

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Mainly VFR conditions early this morning, except for IFR/LIFR along the Southern Tier, impacting KJHW. The low conditions along the Southern Tier will improve to low end VFR by mid morning with showers becoming more widespread. The showers will be accompanied by some thunder during the afternoon. Heavy rain on the western fringe of Isaias will likely remain east of KART-KSYR line.

Outlook .

Tonight . MVFR/VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly east of Lake Ontario. Wednesday . VFR, but showers possible east of Lake Ontario. Thursday through Saturday . VFR.

MARINE. Light winds and negligible waves will persist into this afternoon before a cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes tonight helping to increase winds from the northwest, especially on Lake Ontario. A round of Small Craft Advisories will be issued tonight into Wednesday on Lake Ontario.

Waterspouts will be possible behind the cold front tonight into Thursday with lowering temperatures aloft. The period for best waterspout potential would be later Wednesday into Thursday morning with cold temperatures aloft and winds becoming light enough to favor developing low-level convergence zones where waterspouts typically form.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Wednesday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ044-045.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/TMA NEAR TERM . TMA SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . TMA MARINE . JLA/TMA

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	39 mi	53 min		71°F			1011.6 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	40 mi	41 min	S 2.9 G 5.1	71°F
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	55 mi	53 min	SSE 1 G 1.9	70°F	79°F		1012.4 hPa	54°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Dansville, Dansville Municipal Airport, NY	13 mi	47 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	70°F	66°F	87%	1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDSV

Wind History from DSV (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY

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