Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Morris, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 222054 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 354 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry weather and quiescent conditions lasting through Friday as high pressure builds into the east coast. With the high, a gradual increase to above normal temperatures are expected. Low pressure will slowly pass through from the Ohio Valley to the coast of New England this weekend. As this system passes by it will initially bring mixed precipitation on Saturday, while possibly changing over to accumulating wet snow on Saturday evening through Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. A high pressure center to our southeast will continue to push eastward through the evening, allowing for the breezy southwest winds to gradually shift southerly and diminish throughout the overnight hours. Depending on how calm the winds can get tonight will determine the low temperature tonight. Assuming calm winds, places inland could see lows in the teens, while along the lake shore lows will be in the 20s.

Expect similar conditions Thursday as the high pressure remains overhead. Major differences between today and Thursday will be calmer winds and warmer temperatures. Highs Thursday should reach low 40s throughout much of the area, while the area to the east of Lake Ontario can anticipate upper 30s for highs.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Thursday night and Friday an initial area of high pressure draped along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines will ever so slowly drift eastward . while a second and stronger surface ridge near James Bay builds east-southeastward to the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile . a closed upper level low and its attendant surface low will track from the lower Missouri Valley to Illinois and Indiana. While this latter system will circulate plenty of mid and high cloud cover across our region during this time frame . lingering ridging and drier air at the lower levels will keep the vast majority of our area dry . with just a low chance of rain reaching far south- western New York by sunset on Friday Otherwise. lows ranging from the upper teens across the North Country to the mid/upper 20s near Lake Erie Thursday night will be followed by highs in the lower to mid 40s on Friday as broad warm air advection continues across our region. For our climatologically coldest point of the year . such high temperatures will be some 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

After that . the aforementioned vertically stacked low will lift northeastward to Lower Michigan and Lake Erie Friday night and Saturday . while gradually weakening as its energy transfers to a developing secondary coastal low along or the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The secondary coastal low will then continue to deepen as it moves northeastward along (and then off) the New England coastline Sunday and Sunday night . while lingering deep cyclonic flow across our region gradually gives way to surface-based ridging building eastward from the Upper Great Lakes.

Ahead of the initial surface low and its parent upper level low . a feed of deepening Atlantic moisture and increasing synoptic-scale forcing will overspread the region from southwest to northeast Friday night and Saturday . with the lift being further augmented by a passing 40-50 knot low level jet . and a strongly diffluent flow aloft. This will result in precipitation chances ramping up in a similar manner . with the strong forcing and deep moisture allowing for precipitation to become fairly widespread from the western Finger Lakes westward Friday night . then across the remainder of the area on Saturday. This 24-hour period will also feature a rough 6-12 hour window where the heaviest precipitation from this event will fall . with this tied closely to the passage of the above mentioned low level jet. Saturday night and Sunday the deep moist cyclonic flow on the backside of the strengthening coastal system will then maintain fairly widespread (albeit lighter) precipitation areawide . which remains covered in the forecast by a mix of high likely to categorical PoPs. The steadier precipitation will then become much more scattered late Sunday and Sunday night as the deeper synoptic moisture gets stripped away . and the aforementioned surface ridge builds into our region.

With regard to ptype . in general the models have trended toward a somewhat more northerly track and longer persistence of the initial primary low Friday night and Saturday . which in turn results in warmer air aloft persisting longer across our region . with some guidance now suggesting that the latter could even persist through most of Saturday afternoon across our far eastern zones Meanwhile. boundary layer temps still appear poised to fall into the 20s east of Lake Ontario and the lower-mid 30s elsewhere Friday night . before potentially climbing back into the mid and upper 30s again during the day Saturday. Should all this actually come to fruition . we could see the development of a complicated wintry mix (with primarily rain across the lake plains of far western New York) Friday night and early Saturday . followed by a transition back to more of a general rain/snow mix during the rest of Saturday as boundary layer temps warm again . and the layer of warm air aloft is gradually eliminated All the above said. notable model differences still persist with respect to how thermal profiles will evolve across our region Friday night and Saturday . and with both this and the 5th/6th period nature of this time frame in mind . for now have elected to keep a simpler and more general rain/snow mix in the forecast through the day Saturday.

After Saturday . the precipitation should tend to be more in the way of wet snow through the remainder of the event . though marginal thermal profiles may still be supportive of some rain temporarily mixing back in again across the lower elevations during the day Sunday.

To summarize . as of this point it appears quite possible that this system could bring a round of wintry mixed precipitation . and/or a notable water- laden snowfall to portions of our region from Friday night through Sunday . with the potential for these heavily dependent on the eventual track/strength of the low and its resultant influence on thermal profiles across our region . all of which still remains at least somewhat uncertain as of this writing. With this in mind . will continue to advertise both of these possibilities within our Hazardous Weather Outlook.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Following the passage of the weekend system . the aforementioned ridge will then build directly across our region and bring about a return to mainly dry weather for this period . though cannot completely rule out a few snow and rain showers through Tuesday due to the combination of lingering upsloping and the passage of another shortwave Otherwise. temperatures will remain a bit above late January normals . and will probably stay that way through at least the end of the month with the GFS/GEM/ECMWF remaining in good agreement on keeping any notable cold air bottled up well to our north over northern Canada.

AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The lake induced clouds have moved out of the WNY TAF sites making conditions VFR, while KART is still in MVFR conditions due to the lingering lower clouds. The lake clouds should push north out of KART early this afternoon increasing CIGS to VFR conditions. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the evening through Thursday. Breezy southwest winds should subside throughout the afternoon hours today.

Outlook . Friday . VFR conditions. Saturday . MVFR/IFR conditions possible with rain and wet snow. Saturday night through Monday . MVFR/IFR conditions possible due to snow.

MARINE. Surface high pressure to our southeast will push eastward through the remainder of this afternoon. Breezy southwest winds will subside throughout the afternoon into this evening allowing for minimal waves.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . EAJ NEAR TERM . EAJ SHORT TERM . JJR LONG TERM . JJR AVIATION . EAJ MARINE . EAJ

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	39 mi	56 min		34°F			1026.8 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	40 mi	26 min	SSW 1 G 1	34°F
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	55 mi	56 min		32°F	35°F		1026.6 hPa	11°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Dansville, Dansville Municipal Airport, NY	13 mi	32 min	S 4	10.00 mi	Fair	38°F	9°F	30%	1028.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDSV

Wind History from DSV (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY

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