NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 105 Pm Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Friday morning...
Rest of today..South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight, then becoming south 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Friday..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
Friday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Slight chance of rain through around midnight, then rain likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
wave heights are for ice free areas.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 071634 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1034 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

UPDATE
(Issued 1030 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

High level clouds currently scattered across the CWA as expected.
With plenty of sunshine getting through and light southerly winds today, the warm temperature forecast remains on track.

With the southern Ontario low pressure expected to dominate the wind field on Friday (continuous WAA), by the time the secondary low approaches Illinois Friday night and precipitation across the CWA begins, precipitation should be rain only. Towards the end of the event (Saturday morning), snow may begin to mix in with the rain over the western CWA as westerly CAA finally arrives, but the most common solution on model guidance is a dry slot that terminates precipitation shortly thereafter. As the previous forecast issuance states, the most impactful aspect of this storm is the rainfall, plus some gusty winds (fastest over Lake MI).

Sheppard

SHORT TERM
(Issued 324 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Today through Friday:

Quiet weather is expected as a transient upper level ridge moves overhead. Mid/high level clouds will persist across portions of the area today, with a risk of stratus building over the area tonight as south/southwest winds steadily increase low level warm advection.

After a seasonably chilly start to the day, well above average temperatures are expect today through Friday. Highs will be well into the 40s, with a few low 50s today, with widespread upper 40s to mid 50s for Friday.

Gagan

LONG TERM
(Issued 324 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Friday night through Wednesday:

The 00z suite of ensembles continue exhibit reasonable agreement Friday night and Saturday. The trend and theme of not phasing northern/southern stream energy is by far the more dominate outcome, though there are still some minor differences in the development, location and potential deepening of low pressure. Surface low development with the GEFS is either directly over southern WI or just to the northwest, while with the GEPS and ECMWF ensembles the low track is over southern WI or to the southeast. The upper level pattern evolution and surface low track favor a mainly wet and not white system, though some changeover to light snow is possible as the low exits and cold advection begins. Overall, the biggest impact from the current ensemble variance is on the location of the more substantial swath of rainfall. One quarter to one half inch of rainfall is expected this this system.

There are some indications that another weak area disturbance aloft may move across the area Saturday night, bringing a chance at additional light snow. Moisture looks meager resulting in a dusting of light snow and minimal if any impact.

High pressure builds into the region for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. This results in quiet conditions and temperatures near average for mid December.

Gagan

AVIATION
(Issued 1030 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Light south winds expected today. Still expecting scattered high level clouds and VFR conditions today and tonight. There is some potential for a lower stratus deck (MVFR or low-end VFR level) to develop tonight, but confidence is too low to include a prevailing OVC/BKN deck in TAFs at this time, so this will show as SCT around 2500 ft in the next TAF issuance. The 2000 ft AGL winds (which carry the moisture for said clouds) are from the southwest, maxing out at 35 to 45 kts from 03z to 09z tonight. If south surface winds grind to a complete halt tonight, there may be a weak low level wind shear threat from 03z tonight to sunrise Friday.

Sheppard

MARINE
(Issued 324 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Southwest winds are gradually declining over Lake Michigan early this morning, and that trend will continue today and tonight.
are after midnight. Low pressure of 29.3 inches will move from the northern Plains into south central Canada tonight into Friday.
This will increase southwest winds, with occasional gusts between 25 and 30 kt. Another area of low pressure will develop over northern Illinois Friday night and move northeast southern Wisconsin on Saturday. Southwest winds will shift to the west Saturday night and to the northwest on Sunday as the low exits to the northeast. Will need to keep an eye on gales for the southern half of Lake Michigan on Saturday.

Gagan

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Milwaukee, WI,