Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bay, WI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday July 18, 2019 1:36 AM CDT (06:36 UTC) Moonrise 9:49PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 107 Am Cdt Thu Jul 18 2019
Rest of tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..South wind 10 to 15 knots veering southwest with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201907180900;;236554 FZUS53 KMKX 180607 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 106 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-180900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bay village, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 180401
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1101 pm cdt Wed jul 17 2019

Update
We're starting to see convection percolate over northern ia now
as the LLJ begins to strengthen upstream. But, this is also right
under the h7 thermal ridge, so this stuff is very elevated. It
will likely develop north northeast before starting to get its
cold pool organized and begin a dive to the southeast. That will
take quite a while and we may not see any convection in the
madison milwaukee metro areas until closer to 10-13z... Give or
take. The main threat still looks to be some strong winds and
hail.

Aviation(06z tafs)
We are looking at the potential for a round of storms to move
through the TAF sites somewhere in the 10-16z Thursday time frame.

This activity is organizing over northern iowa southern mn at late
evening and will eventually turn southeast toward southern
wisconsin later tonight. It will then push off to the southeast of
wisconsin by late morning. Another round of storms is also
possible Thursday evening, but that may remain located north of
the TAF sites.

ExpectVFR conditions through the TAF period, except a period of
lower conditions is always expected as any storms move through.

Winds will be light early in the TAF period, becoming southerly
10-20kts on Thursday.

Prev discussion (issued 856 pm cdt Wed jul 17 2019)
update... SPC day 1 trimmed considerably across our area. Slight
gone and marginal only in our northwest. Airmass largely capped
with SPC meso charts showing 12-14c cap into SRN mn and iowa.

Anything coming across later tonight looks to be quite elevated
but still ample elevated CAPE that will be rooted above 5k feet at
the lowest late. Meso models still show some activity evolving
late but much less organized pronounced from earlier runs.

Pc
marine... Only isolated fog noted especially near port washington
but remainder of webcams look decent. So went ahead and cancelled
the advisory that was in effect for the southern areas.

Pc
prev discussion... (issued 536 pm cdt Wed jul 17 2019)
update...

the convection across southeast wisconsin is still expected to
diminish early this evening as surface based instability
diminishes with loss of heating. Still some heavy rainfall and
lightning under this stuff, so remain alert.

The focus then turns to what may develop later tonight. The
genesis of the next round should be in the vicinity of southern
mn. There's some agitated CU along the mn ia border early this
evening, but this is also right under a h7 thermal ridge of
+12-14c... That's quite a cap that may be difficult to bust
through. It may form a bit farther north, along the edge of the
cap and where the nose of the LLJ will be poking in.

Additionally, the convection that rolled across eastern ia has
brought some lower CAPE values in that region and that will have
to be overcome. Not surprising... The short range guidance suite is
all over the map on the genesis and eventual movement of
convection tonight. It may be a pretty late show for southern
wisconsin... More toward the 3-6 am timeframe.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

vfr conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light winds
tonight will become southerly around 10-15kts on Thursday. The
main concern during the period will be the potential for
thunderstorms. The storms across southeast wi early this evening
will diminish quickly with the loss of heating. We will then watch
for storms to develop somewhere over southern mn later tonight
and move east southeast, potentially across southern wisconsin
toward sunrise on Thursday. It would then move out of the area by
afternoon with quiet weather likely until more storms possibly
develop Thursday evening. This scenario is far from certain,
however. Lower operating conditions are expected within any
shower storm activity.

Prev discussion... (issued 334 pm cdt Wed jul 17 2019)
short term...

tonight and Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Isolated thunderstorms will gradually diminish across southern wi
through 5 pm as we lose surface-based instability. The line of
storms tracking through eastern iowa will bring a few light
showers to southeast wi and thunder may clip iowa county briefly,
but it will largely miss us to the south.

The next round of thunderstorms to impact southern wi is expected
to develop over central south central mn (on the nose of the low
level jet) and track eastward into west central and southern
wisconsin overnight into Thursday morning with one or two bowing
line segments. The storms may produce damaging winds, especially
west of madison, with a weakening trend as they reach southeast
wi.

We should clear out for a time late Thursday morning and allow us
to warm into the lower 90s. With dewpoints in the lower to mid
70s, we will be primed for heat indices in the lower 100s. Thus,
the timing for the heat advisory to begin at noon still looks
good.

There is a chance for afternoon thunderstorms to develop along any
lingering outflow boundary, and this looks like it would be toward
central wi at this time. This area of focus can change, so keep
up with the latest forecast.

Long term...

Thursday night through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium:
could see some storms Thursday evening into Thursday night. Plenty
of moisture and instability will remain in the area, with the low
level jet overhead. Looks like a weak wave may slide through
during this time period as well. Models seems to firing storms
within and to the north of the 850 mb temp gradient. There is some
variance among models with this area, so not high confidence in
where exactly storms will go up. Seems the north half of the
forecast area has the best chance, with some models keeping this
activity farther north. Given the available instability along with
decent shear and lapse rates, there is the potential for some of
these storms to be severe.

Models remain in good agreement that Friday should be the hottest
day of the week. It looks dry through the day, with the warm
southwest flow keeping dewpoints and temps aloft on the high side.

The lows Thursday night might struggle to fall much below 80 where
it doesn't rain, so Friday will get a running start with temps.

Models have 925 mb temps pushing 30c, which would suggest the
potential for surface temps into at least the mid 90s with heat
indices in the 105 to 110 range.

Models continue to show a faster front timing Saturday compared
to a couple days ago. If the front slows at all, this could mean
temps similar to Friday, especially toward illinois. A faster
front would be much less heat, especially in the northern forecast
area. Kept the southern areas on the hotter side for now with
heat indices pushing 100, but overall it looks like most places
should be below 100 unless the front slows down. There will be a
chance for storms with the front, especially during the afternoon
and evening.

Sunday does look cooler, as the cold front should be south of the
area. Could be some storms lingering, particularly in the
morning. The storm chances will depend on how fast the front
pushes through.

Monday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium:
temps should be back near normal for the first half of next week.

It looks mainly dry during this period under high pressure.

Aviation(21z TAF update)...

isolated thunderstorms will gradually diminish through 5 pm. The
environment is capable of short- lived pulse thunderstorms that
produce heavy rain and gusty winds. MVFR ceilings are possible
with storms, but otherwise expectVFR ceilings through the
evening.

A line of storms is expected to track through southern wi
overnight into Thursday morning. Besides heavy rain, the main
severe threat with these storms would be damaging winds, mainly
from madison and west. Showers with a chance for MVFR ceilings may
linger through Thursday morning, but expect gusty southerly winds
to develop Thu afternoon. Another round of storms may develop
Thursday late afternoon or evening and persist into the overnight.

The best chance for storms would be north of i-94 and could be
severe.

Marine...

it appears that the dense fog has dissipated across most of the
south half of lake michigan now, but there is still an area of
dense fog in the nearshore areas by port washington. Therefore,
the south half and the nearshore area's dense fog advisory remains
in effect through mid evening. Southerly winds will develop
tonight which will diminish the chance for fog.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Heat advisory from noon Thursday to 11 pm cdt Friday for wiz046-
047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

Lm... None.

Update... Davis
tonight Thursday and aviation marine... Davis
Thursday night through Wednesday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 13 mi36 min S 6 G 7 74°F 1011.9 hPa (+0.0)
45187 18 mi36 min S 3.9 G 3.9 73°F 72°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 25 mi46 min SSE 6 G 6 71°F
45186 26 mi36 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9 72°F 70°F
45013 27 mi36 min S 9.7 G 12 72°F 71°F1 ft1012.3 hPa
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 34 mi36 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 73°F 1012.3 hPa72°F
45174 41 mi26 min SSE 3.9 G 3.9 1 ft1009.3 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI8 mi43 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F70°F88%1012.1 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi43 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F71°F85%1011.6 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI20 mi44 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F70°F84%1011.4 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL24 mi41 minSSE 310.00 miOvercast75°F71°F88%1010.6 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW3W4W3CalmN6NE8NE7E8E7SE8SE6SW6SE7SE6S7S5S6SE4S5SE4S5S3
1 day agoSW5W4SW5SW7SW6SW6
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SW7W4W5NW4SE7E6SE7S7S8SE8SE10S10S7S4S3CalmS3W3
2 days agoS3S3S3SW8SW7SW7SW9
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SW9SW7SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.