Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bay, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:39PM Sunday August 25, 2019 6:22 AM CDT (11:22 UTC) Moonrise 12:38AMMoonset 4:02PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 505 Am Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019
Today..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots backing east late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..East wind 10 to 15 knots veering southeast with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Monday night..South wind 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then veering west early in the morning. Showers with Thunderstorms likely. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.
LMZ646 Expires:201908251600;;178719 FZUS53 KMKX 251006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 505 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-251600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bay village, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 250802
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
302 am cdt Sun aug 25 2019

Discussion
Today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium to high:
high pressure will continue to head eastward today, pulling away
from the region as low pressure approaches. Moisture will
gradually increase today into tonight ahead of the low. There
could be enough lift for a few sprinkles or light showers in the
west by later this afternoon, but model soundings show a lot of
dry air to overcome if precip is going to hit the ground. Could be
enough saturation eventually, so put a slight chance in there.

Have a slight chance for showers across southern wisconsin
tonight as moisture continues to increase. Doesn't look like much
in the way of instability, so left out mention of thunder.

Temps aloft for today look fairly similar to the last couple days.

With increasing mid and high level clouds, temps may struggle to
get to what they did yesterday. Kept similar highs though, with
some filtered sunshine likely and given 925 mb temps maybe a
degree milder. Should see temps milder tonight than the last
couple nights given a somewhat milder airmass along with more
clouds.

Monday and Monday night... Forecast confidence is high.

No real change to the forecast reasoning during this period,
except to bump pops higher due to higher confidence. Our main area
of precipitation will arrive Monday evening with the surface cold
front. This event features a leading southern stream mid level
shortwave that will lift into illinois lower michigan later
tonight into Monday morning. This could clip southeast wisconsin
with a quick round of rain at that time. Things should then quiet
down until the frontal influence arrives late Monday
afternoon evening. There's still enough cape, deep layer shear and
dynamics for a marginal risk of severe storms. But, the later
timing of the front will be working against storms achieving
severe status. Rainfall could be in the 3 4 to 1 inch range.

This is a very progressive system, so look for the rain to be
diminishing ending quickly after 06z Tuesday. Expect it to be dry
by sunrise on Tuesday.

Tuesday through Thursday... Forecast confidence is high.

Brisk west winds will usher in a dry and cool airmass for mid
week. Overall, it looks like highs will be in the 70s, but
Wednesday could be a day where we struggle to reach 70. There's
some model disagreement on just how far the colder air will
penetrate, but expect a rather chilly day either way on Wednesday,
especially with those elevated winds.

Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The guidance suggest a weak trough will be dropping through the
area, but the airmass looks awfully dry to support any showers.

For now, will keep it dry, but we may end up introducing a small
chance of rain for Friday in the coming days.

Saturday and Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure looks to exert its influence again, providing a dry
weekend.

Aviation(09z tafs)
Vfr conditions are expected to persist through tonight. Lake
clouds in the east are starting to dissipate early this morning,
with mainly mid and high level clouds likely today into tonight.

Could see some afternoon cumulus again, mainly away from lake
michigan.

A few showers or sprinkles are possible in the west later today,
with a slight chance for showers across southern wisconsin
tonight.

Marine
Persistent southeast winds between departing high pressure and an
approaching low today into Monday will result in building waves,
especially across western portions of lake michigan. Winds will
pick up tonight, with gusts to 25 knots possible. Gusty south and
then west winds are likely Monday night into Tuesday as the low
and an associated cold front move through the area. A small craft
advisory will likely be needed for tonight into at least Monday
night.

Low pressure passing by to the north may bring westerly wind gusts
to advisory levels Wednesday.

Beaches
Increasing southeast winds ahead of an approaching cold front will
likely bring a high swim risk to the lake michigan beaches late
tonight through late Monday night. We'll likely issue a beach
hazards statement later today to highlight this threat. West
winds arrive by Tuesday, bringing lower wave heights, but also a
cooler airmass.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Today tonight and aviation marine... Ddv
Monday through Saturday... Davis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 13 mi22 min SSE 14 G 17 68°F 1021 hPa (+0.0)
45187 18 mi22 min SSE 12 G 16 71°F 72°F4 ft
45186 26 mi22 min ESE 12 G 16 68°F 72°F4 ft
45013 27 mi52 min SSE 14 G 18 69°F 68°F4 ft1022 hPa
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 34 mi32 min ESE 14 G 19 66°F 72°F3 ft1022.3 hPa58°F
45174 41 mi32 min SE 14 G 18 73°F4 ft1019.7 hPa
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 47 mi42 min SSE 14 G 17 69°F 1022.7 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N4
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI8 mi29 minSSE 610.00 miFair66°F54°F65%1022 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi29 minSE 410.00 miFair63°F55°F76%1021.4 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI20 mi30 minS 410.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F53°F66%1021.5 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL24 mi27 minSE 510.00 miFair64°F55°F75%1020.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRAC

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE9SE11SE13E15E13E11
G17
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E10E10E9E7NE7NE6E8E10E7SE9SE11
G16
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1 day agoE10NE10NE9E10E10E7E11
G18
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G19
NE9NE12NE15NE12NE8NE7NE6NE7NE7NE8NE6E5E5CalmSE6
2 days agoNE7NE9E12E9E12
G17
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NE11E9NE11NE10NE8NE8NE7NE7NE7NE7NE8NE6NE5NE8NE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.