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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 705 Pm Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots backing west late in the morning, then backing southwest early in the afternoon rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight becoming 10 to 20 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
wave heights are for ice free areas.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 052144 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 344 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

KEY MESSAGES
(Issued 340 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023)

- Light rain showers near Kenosha county continue southeastward out of the region.
- Mostly dry weather expected through Friday, with the exception of a chance (30%) for trace amounts of rain / snow on Wednesday.
- Gusty southwest winds Wedensday evening.
- Large uncertainty regarding the position/timing of this weekend's low pressure system passing by, but precipitation is likely at some point Saturday or Sunday.

SHORT TERM
(Issued 340 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023)

Tonight and Wednesday:

Lake MI shoreline convergence has created a few isolated rain showers, currently near Racine and Kenosha counties. These will soon clear out to the southeast. Light northwesterly CAA will send tonight's overnight low into the mid 20s to around 30, with lingering clouds preventing it from dropping any further.

The lingering moisture below 850mb lends itself to the possibility (30% chance) of trace amounts of precipitation (sprinkles or flurries) on Wednesday. CAMs corroborate this, with a few areas of weak simulated reflectivity appearing in the daytime hours. Winds turn southwest and become gusty (around 25 mph) Wednesday evening.

Sheppard

LONG TERM
(Issued 340 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023)

Wednesday night through Tuesday:

Gusty southwest winds continue off and on through Friday as a strong low pressure passes through southern Canada. These winds will carry in a warmer airmass, with Thursday's daytime high expected to be in the upper 40s to low 50s, and Friday's in the mid 50s. The 300mb ridge axis passes over Thursday night, while a strong 300mb jet streak over the western CONUS deepens a trough over the Rockies. Split flow develops east of the tip of said trough, and the resultant diffluent flow rapidly develops a low over the southern plains on Friday. The speed and track of this low as it ejects northeastward towards our CWA remains highly uncertain, and depends on the phasing of the upper air pattern.
Ensemble guidance is unsure of whether to place the precipitation in the Saturday or Sunday timeframe, but consensus is growing on modest precipitation rates (whenever it does arrive).

Sheppard

AVIATION
(Issued 340 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023)

Mostly MVFR ceilings expected tonight, with cloud bases generally between 1500 and 3000 ft and cloud coverage decreasing from OVC to BKN. Winds will be northwest at around 7 kts tonight. Winds turn southwest late Wednesday morning, accelerating to 15 kts with 20 to 25 kt gusts by Wednesday evening. Wednesday's cloud coverage will teeter between SCT and BKN at around the same altitude, with just a chance (30%) for trace amounts of precipitation (sprinkles / flurries).

Sheppard

MARINE
(Issued 340 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023)

Low pressure around 29.9 inches will track eastward from Indiana this evening, while high pressure of 30.5 inches overspreads the Great Plains. Light north to northwest winds are expected tonight.
Southwest winds will then develop across the region later Wednesday and linger into the rest of the week as a strong low pressure of 29.2 inches sweeps across the northern Great Lakes region. Gusty southwest winds expected Wednesday evening and night with potential for a few gales. Another period of gusty southwest winds expected Thursday night into Friday though gales are not likely.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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