Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Racine, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:18PM Saturday December 7, 2019 6:52 PM CST (00:52 UTC) Moonrise 3:06PMMoonset 3:11AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 506 Pm Cst Sat Dec 7 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..South wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet early in the morning.
Sunday..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots early in the afternoon, then easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest wind 5 to 15 knots backing south 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then backing southeast early in the morning. Chance of rain through around midnight, then rain likely after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..South wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Rain. Waves around 1 foot. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201912080500;;009699 FZUS53 KMKX 072306 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-080500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Racine, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 072350 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 550 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

UPDATE. Widespread cirrus over southern Wisconsin early this evening as pressure gradient tightens ahead of low pressure riding along the U.S./Canada border. Upstream upper level warm air advection should continue to bring sct-bkn cirrus to the area much of the night. The clouds along with gusty south winds will keep temperatures holding mostly in the upper 20s to low 30s overnight. Will need to lower a few spots in the east into the upper 20s for MinT.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS). Axis of low level jet will pass across southern WI overnight. Above 1K feet, southwest winds will be gusting up to 45 to 50 kts resulting in low level wind shear criteria. Some short term guidance is trying to bring lower clouds and MVFR ceilings into the area Sunday morning, but not sold on this scenario. May hold off until the afternoon when upstream cold front and low level trof approach southern WI. Satellite imagery does reveal some low clouds over the southern MS Valley region. Do expect this area to start spreading northward, but this area of low clouds may remain to the south of southern WI. Some light rain or drizzle will be possible later Sunday night.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 312 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2019)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight through Sunday . Forecast Confidence is High .

A system exiting the northern Rockies will track across the US/Canada border tonight through Sunday. Much of the forcing is going to be focused along northern WI and the Lake Superior region and with limited available moisture the forecast will remain dry through Sunday morning. Stronger S/SW winds via a LLJ will transport enough moisture in the lower levels to allow for low end PoPs near the IL border Sunday afternoon as a front stalls out. However, there might still be enough dry air aloft to keep things dry. In either case though, temps are warm enough for precip to remain liquid. Overnight the winds keep things mixed and lows may not fall much below the freezing mark. The WAA associated with the stronger southerly flow will allow temps to warm into the lower 40s for Sunday.

LONG TERM .

Monday through Wednesday . Forecast confidence is high.

In the mid levels on Monday there is a very broad trough that will be digging through most of the Midwest. There will also be an embedded shortwave that moves through the region on Monday. The embedded shortwave will help drive surface cyclogenesis of the low and drive it out of the plains toward the Midwest. There is still some uncertainty in the track of the surface low Monday afternoon. These slight differences in track bring uncertainty in when the rain to snow transition begins Monday evening. Overall the system is rather weak and could produce of 1 to 2 inches of snow or less. The bulk of the snow will be falling mainly north of Milwaukee and Madison.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, there will be an arctic air mass over the Upper Midwest. A high pressure system will be keeping it dry and winds around 10 mph. This should keep wind chills around -10 to -15 Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

Thursday through Saturday . Forecast confidence is medium.

There will be high pressure in place on Thursday, with temperatures warming into the mid 20s. Things then become more uncertain for Friday and Saturday. In the mid levels there is zonal flow and temperatures will begin to climb towards normal. A short wave will come through the Midwest, but the timing is still uncertain. The short wave could help produce some light precipitation on Friday, but it will most likely hold off until Saturday. There could be some light snow Saturday from the short wave and the presence of an elongated trough out the the west. Overall nothing of much concern at this point.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS) .

VFR conditions are forecast through Sunday morning. A system passing to the north of the region tonight will bring an increase in southerly winds this afternoon through Sunday. These southerly winds bring better low level moisture towards the end of the TAF period and MVFR cigs spreading into the region are forecast. Stronger winds stream in overnight and could result in wind shear issues at all terminals.

MARINE .

A low pressure system will move across Lake Superior tonight through Sunday morning. Strong W/SW winds aloft overspread the area and these winds should be able to mix down and gale force gusts are expected over the open waters. The strongest gusts will be focused across the northern half of Lake Michigan but a Gale Warning is in effect for the entire open waters of Lake Michigan. For the nearshore waters believe there is enough of an inversion to prevent the strongest winds from making it down to the surface and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Waves could range from 10 to 14 feet across the far northern waters. Winds and waves begin to diminish Sunday afternoon. We remain under a breezy north to northwesterly flow through the week and gusts could approach small craft conditions at times through the week.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM CST Sunday for LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779- 868-870-872-874-876-878.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Sunday for LMZ643>646.



Update . mbK Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine . mbK Sunday Night through Saturday . Patterson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 10 mi53 min S 8.9 G 12 35°F 1022.7 hPa (-1.3)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 19 mi43 min S 7 G 8.9 34°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 46 mi73 min S 11 G 16 35°F 1023 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI2 mi60 minS 810.00 miFair34°F23°F64%1024 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI12 mi60 minS 610.00 miFair34°F25°F70%1023.7 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI17 mi61 minS 1010.00 miOvercast34°F24°F67%1023.2 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi58 minS 610.00 miFair33°F23°F66%1024.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRAC

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmSW4SW4S4CalmSW3SW5SW8SW8SW8S5S6S8SW9SW11SW11
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1 day agoS4S4SW5SW7SW4W5W7NW7
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N11N11NE9NE7NE3CalmCalm
2 days agoNW9W4W6W6W5W5W5W3W5W5W5W4W3W3Calm--SE4S7S7S4SW7S5S5S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.