Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Racine, WI

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Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday July 18, 2019 12:41 PM CDT (17:41 UTC) Moonrise 9:49PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cdt Thu Jul 18 2019
Rest of today..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 35 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Numerous showers early in the afternoon. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots backing south late in the morning, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the afternoon veering southwest with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201907182200;;257832 FZUS53 KMKX 181605 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-182200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Racine, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 181522 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1022 am cdt Thu jul 18 2019

Update
Wake low winds developed this morning across the northern forecast
area including madison, the dells, juneau, and sheboygan.

Southerly wind gusts up to 36 mph have been reported. These winds
should shift southeast with time as rain tapers off.

As for precip trends, we still have some thunderstorms
regenerating over southwest wi on the nose of the weakening low
level jet. These should diminish with time through late morning
and this is lingering longer than previously anticipated.

The extensive cloud cover and lingering precip are holding
temperatures down across southern wi this morning and it's going
to be hard to recover this afternoon. After coordination with
chicago, we cancelled the heat advisory for most of southern wi
for today and are keeping it in effect for tomorrow beginning at
10am 15z.

For far southwest wi, including iowa, lafayette, and green
counties, we are keeping the heat advisory going for today.

There's a decent chance that the warmer and more humid air mass
will be able to nudge into southwest wi later this afternoon.

Marine
Gusty southerly winds will persist through late morning due to a
wake low. These are in response to a rapid pressure change as the
precip weakens over the area. A few gale force gusts are possible.

The sheboygan c-man station reported a peak gust of 38 kt last
hour, but that sensor is 100 feet off the ground water.

We will start to see some breezier southerly winds across the
lake this afternoon with some clearing, primarily the northern
half with gusts up to 20-25 kts possible with waves growing to 3-4
feet. We will see gusts along the nearshore approach small craft
advisory conditions, but do not expect winds to reach criteria.

Into the evening and overnight we will see more chances for
storms especially across the central portion of the lake. These
storms may be capable of some stronger gusts at times. Storm
chances will continue for Friday and Saturday with a nice, dry
stretch of weather expected next week.

Prev discussion (issued 701 am cdt Thu jul 18 2019)
update...

storms with mostly heavy rain and lightning continue through the
region and will make their way out this morning. Otherwise the
forecast remains on track.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

the strongest storms are making their way through southeast
wisconsin now with heavy rain and lightning continuing for the
next hour or so before most of the region becomes just light to
moderate showers. There will be additional chances for storms
through much of the morning hours but they will likely push out
later this morning into the early afternoon. The biggest concern
will be for the southeast which for the next hour could see MVFR
vsbys and CIGS associated with storms. Otherwise we should see
southwest winds that will gust to 20-25 kts this afternoon
into the evening we will see additional chances for storms causing
additional concerns for vsbys and cigs. Although some of these
storms may be strong they may remain primarily to the north of
milwaukee and madison. In addition there will be some low level wind
shear of 40 kt from the southwest up to 2000 ft, though this will be
strongest further west.

Prev discussion... (issued 338 am cdt Thu jul 18 2019)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

Storms are expected to continue from the west this morning
through southern wi and push out of the area by the late morning.

There are multiple sources of forcing for these storms. There is
the warm front which will be aided by the LLJ and associated
theta-e advection as well as an upper level shortwave that will be
pushing through the region. This will be a concern given some
instability around 1500-2500 j kg of MUCAPE and 35-40 kts of 0-6
km bulk shear. Any storms will be elevated with most storms
likely remaining on the weaker side especially as they track
east southeast.

After storms and associated clouds push out of the region in the
morning afternoon, we should expect the Sun to warm the region up
quite quickly. Highs should reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with
dewpoints in the mid 70s. This will lead to a very warm and sticky
day, with heat indices around 100 degrees to the southwest parts
of the cwa, and mid to upper 90s elsewhere.

We will continue the heat advisory as is for today, despite the
lowered highs and heat index values. We still want to convey that
it will be very warm and humid, and precautions with respect to
heat should still be made. If the clouds clear out quicker than
expected this afternoon, temperatures and heat index values will
rise higher than forecast.

There is additional potential for storms later this evening,
though they will be very dependent on the way storms play out
later in the morning hours. However, if we can get the Sun out and
warm up enough we will see a chance for a few severe storms.

There may be some upper level influence with some models
indicating some pva. However, the main forcing looks to be the
warm front that will be just to the north. There will be
additional influence from the LLJ as well as fairly decent theta-e
advection.

Outside of the influence of morning convection the other piece of
uncertainty is where convection will occur. The storms may
actually stick further to the north closer to the boundary.

However, cams still show storms in the area so we will have to
monitor how the situation tonight develops. Storms will push out
of the region during the morning hours Friday.

Friday... Forecast confidence is high.

Heat advisory continues through 11 pm cdt Friday evening. Model
certainty trends continue to suggest a hot and humid day across
the area. Forecast highs in the middle 90s, with some upper 90s in
southeast wisconsin, are more in the 75th to 90th percentile
range, which is on the higher end of the guidance envelope.

However, gusty southwest winds and a good amount of Sun should
allow the middle to perhaps upper 90s occur. Record highs at
milwaukee and madison will be approached. Heat index values are
not in the 105 to 111 degree range across the area, with dew
points in the middle to perhaps upper 70s. This will be the most
impactful heat-related day. In addition, most of the day should be
capped and dry. Left low pops in the north late in the day, but
most thunderstorm chances should hold off until evening.

Friday night through Saturday night... Forecast confidence is
medium.

Chances for thunderstorms occur for Friday night, as the low
level jet remains pointed into the region. The activity may end up
north of the area, but left in pops for now, just in case. Better
chances for storms then occur Saturday into Saturday night, as
the cold front moves south southeast into and through the area.

There is a good amount of mean layer elevated CAPE and deep layer
bulk shear Friday night into Saturday night for some strong severe
storms. SPC marginal risk seems reasonable at this time. Could
also see some heavy rainfall, as precipitable water values are
high.

The increasing clouds and storm potential Saturday should keep
highs low enough to limit heat index values to the 90s.

Long term...

Sunday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Enough cold air advection occurs on Sunday that the current pops
may need to be removed in later forecasts. Large high pressure
moves southeast into the region for the first part of next week,
which should bring dry conditions and pleasant temperatures. The
current pops for Sunday night early Monday may need removal in
later forecasts, if this trend continues.

Aviation(09z TAF updates)...

storms will push through this morning causing concerns for breezy
gusts and locally heavy downpours. This could potentially cause
some temporary MVFR ifr vsbys and CIGS but they generally should
not last long. These storms will push out by the late morning with
clouds clearing out a bit into the afternoon. This afternoon
winds will be breezy from the southwest with gusts up to 25 kts
possible.

Into the evening we could see additional storms chances with
similar concerns for breezy winds and locally heavy downpours.

There is a slight chances for a few stronger storms but these
should remain primarily to the north.VFR conditions are expected
for most of the period.

Marine...

storms should be mostly weak as they push over the southern half
of the lake this morning, though some stronger gusts to 30 kts
are possible. Into the late morning early afternoon we will start
to see some breezier southerly winds across the lake, primarily
the northern half with gusts up to 20-25 kts possible with waves
growing to 3-4 feet. We will see gusts along the nearshore
approach small craft advisory conditions, but do not expect winds
to reach criteria.

Into the evening and overnight we will see more chances for
storms especially across the central portion of the lake. These
storms may be capable of some stronger gusts at times. Storm
chances will continue for Friday and Saturday with a nice, dry
stretch of weather expected next week.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Heat advisory from 10 am to 11 pm cdt Friday for wiz046-047-051-
052-056>060-063>066-069>072.

Heat advisory until 11 pm cdt Friday for wiz062-067-068.

Lm... None.

Update... Cronce
today tonight and aviation marine... Ark
Friday through Wednesday... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 10 mi41 min SSE 22 G 24 68°F 1010.2 hPa (-3.7)
45187 17 mi41 min SSE 14 G 18 70°F 65°F1 ft
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 22 mi51 min S 23 G 27 72°F
45186 25 mi41 min SE 14 G 19 69°F 68°F1 ft
45013 26 mi41 min S 25 G 31 66°F 4 ft1007.9 hPa
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 42 mi41 min SSE 12 G 18 70°F 70°F1012.2 hPa70°F
45174 42 mi31 min SE 14 G 19 1 ft1010.1 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI2 mi48 minSSE 20 G 3110.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy72°F68°F87%1009.9 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI12 mi48 minSSE 16 G 2510.00 miA Few Clouds73°F70°F90%1010 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI17 mi49 minS 21 G 3310.00 miOvercast and Breezy74°F69°F85%1008.3 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi46 minSSE 14 G 2210.00 miLight Rain71°F68°F90%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE6SW6SE7SE6S7S5S6SE4S5SE4S5S3S4S6S5S5SW4W9CalmW3SE9S10S20
G31
1 day agoE6SE7S7S8SE8SE10S10S7S4S3CalmS3W3CalmCalmW3W4W3CalmN6NE8NE7E8E7
2 days agoSW8W13
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SW9SW7SW7SW5W4SW5SW7SW6SW6
G15
SW7W4W5NW4SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.