Saturday, October19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Racine, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:04PM Saturday October 19, 2019 3:25 PM CDT (20:25 UTC) Moonrise 10:06PMMoonset 12:46PM Illumination 64% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 306 Pm Cdt Sat Oct 19 2019
Through early evening..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots veering northwest early in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers late in the evening. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast early in the afternoon, then becoming east late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then veering southeast after midnight rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Monday..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the morning, then veering south early in the afternoon veering southwest late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ646 Expires:201910200900;;958310 FZUS53 KMKX 192006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 306 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-200900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Racine, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 191713
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1213 pm cdt Sat oct 19 2019

Update
The mid high level clouds have thinned out and allowed temps to
warm a bit quicker than forecast. Adjusted highs up a few more
degrees with some spots getting into the mid 60s in SE wisconsin.

The rest of the forecast is on track.

Aviation(18z tafs)
Vfr conditions are forecast through the afternoon hours. Then as a
cold front and showers approach the terminals CIGS fall towards
MVFR and eventually drop to between 1,500ft and 3,000ft at times
this evening. Some improvement in CIGS are possible behind the
front but the clearing could support the development of fog late
tonight into Sunday morning. Still some uncertainty in just how
low vsbys could be tonight but some guidance does suggest patchy
dense fog. Will watch conditions tonight and see about the need to
add dense fog to the tafs. S to SW winds could gust to 15kts
ahead of the front this afternoon then switch to the W NW and
become lighter overnight.

Prev discussion (issued 936 am cdt Sat oct 19 2019)
update...

mid and high level clouds continue to linger across the area this
morning ahead of the incoming frontal boundary. A few weak returns
are showing up on radar associated with these clouds but the 12z
sounding from grb shows considerable dry air beneath these clouds.

So, its going to take awhile before any of this precip reaches the
surface. Other than some minor tweaks to temps and sky, the
current forecast is on track.

Marine...

winds will continue to increase out of the south today ahead of a
passing front. This will also cause waves to build across the
northern half of lake michigan. The small craft advisory will
remain in effect for winds and waves through the afternoon evening
hours. No major changes are needed at this time.

Prev discussion... (issued 643 am cdt Sat oct 19 2019)
update...

had to increase cloud cover early this morning due to stubborn mid
to high level deck. Should see this area largely scatter out this
morning before the main area of clouds moves in from the west.

Still think there should be a fair amount of sunshine today,
especially in the east.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

mid to high level clouds will decrease this morning. Clouds will
then increase again later today as a trough and front approach
the area. Some lower ceilings will be possible as an area of
showers moves through west to east this afternoon and evening.

Skies will likely clear west to east behind the departing system
later this evening and overnight. Will probably see some fog
development tonight, mainly away from lake michigan. The fog could
be dense at times.

Prev discussion... (issued 320 am cdt Sat oct 19 2019)
short term...

today through Sunday - forecast confidence... Medium to high.

A trough of low pressure and associated weak surface front will move
through later today into tonight. This will bring a round of showers
to southern wisconsin. Should see plenty of sunshine to start the
day today, with clouds picking up in the west by late morning, then
gradually spreading east during the afternoon. Showers should hold
off until the afternoon in the west, likely not reaching the east
until the evening hours. May see a diminishing trend in showers
coverage as the showers move into the eastern forecast area. Precip
should wind down in the east by midnight, with clearing skies behind
the departing system.

Temps will be mildest in the east today, farther ahead of the trough
and associated clouds. Winds in the east may have an easterly
component, especially north toward sheboygan. Went with highs a
little cooler near the lake as a result.

High pressure and light winds will quickly move in behind the
departing system tonight. Model guidance is suggesting the potential
for fog development overnight, especially away from lake michigan
where skies will clear out earlier. The fog could be dense at times.

Left out fog mention in the far east for now. Should see any fog
that develops dissipate by mid-morning Sunday.

The NAM is hanging on to fog stratus through the day, which seems
overdone compared to other models. The NAM tends to remain saturated
in the lowest layers too often during cooler times of the year. If
the fog departs as expected, should see plenty of sunshine Sunday.

Looks like a pleasant day, with highs near normal in the upper 50s
and low 60s.

Sunday night and Monday - forecast confidence... Medium to high.

An unsettled period is expected as deep low pressure in the central
plains takes a turn to the northeast toward the mn wi border by 00z
Tuesday. The low is expected to undergo the occlusion process and
weaken slightly as it moves to the northeast. Never the less, it
will remain a potent, strong system as it moves across the upper
midwest. An increasing low level jet will return precipitable water
values of around 1" to southern wi by Monday morning as the low
level occluded front sweeps through the area. Although the better
low level convergence and shear looks to remain to the east and
south of the area, enough synoptic and frontogenetical forcing with
this system will bring a period of showers and a few t-storms to the
area, mainly late Sunday night into Monday morning. The band of
showers will remain progressive and should diminish from west to
east during the morning and early aftn as the mid-level dry wedge
swings through. Increasing southwest winds behind the occluded
front will gust to 30 to 35 mph and will usher cooler air back into
the region. Monday will be the last day with highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s for some-time, perhaps until next spring!
long term...

Monday night through Friday - forecast confidence... Medium
trending low.

Early in the period southern wi will remain under the influence of
occluded but deep low pressure moving slowly northeast across far
northern wi and the lake superior region through Tuesday. Blustery
southwest to west winds will continue to carry colder air across the
region through Tuesday as 925h temps fall to around 3-4c. Wind gusts
on Tuesday will again be in the 30 to 35 mph range. A lingering low
pressure trof and several short waves rotating around the low will
result in a chance of showers, especially later Monday night into
Tuesday morning. At this point, the low level thermal profile
favors all liquid precipitation. Daytime temperatures on Tuesday
will be 10 to 15 degrees colder than Monday. The slow moving low
pressure area will finally shift farther north into canada Tuesday
night. However the medium range guidance is in reasonable agreement
on carrying weak short wave and period of isentropic upglide across
the area later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Guidance drastically
diverges for the later periods as GFS remains much more progressive
with this weak wave and moves it off to the east by Wednesday night.

Ecmwf has been showing considerable run to run variability. The
latest deterministic ECMWF now shows developing surface front from
the southern plains into the central great lakes with surface low
pressure eventually traversing this front to the northeast Thursday
night. For now, thinking this is an outlier compared to other
extended guidance and wpc blended models also deemphasizing this
solution compared to GFS and gem. Wl continue small pops for this
period. With the cold air expected to be in place, chances for more
of a mix of precip types will be increasing. Cips extended analog
has a strong signal for below normal temperatures persisting into
the last days of the month.

Aviation(09z TAF update)...

clouds will increase today as a trough and front approach the area.

Some lower ceilings will be possible as an area of showers moves
through west to east this afternoon and evening. Skies will likely
clear west to east behind the departing system later this evening
and overnight. Will probably see some fog development tonight,
mainly away from lake michigan. The fog could be dense at times.

Marine...

southerly winds will be breezy today ahead of an approaching area of
low pressure and associated cold front. Could see a few gusts to 30
knots across the north half of the lake. Waves will be highest in
the north as well. Extended the small craft advisory from port
washington to sheboygan until 00z this evening given latest wave
forecast showing 4 foot waves hanging on a bit longer.

Southeast winds will pick up Sunday night into Monday ahead of a
stronger approaching low pressure system. The winds will remain
elevated and become south to southwest later Monday into Monday
night, and then westerly by later Tuesday. Winds may gust to gale
force at times Monday through Tuesday night. Winds will be a little
lighter Wednesday, but will remain gusty and out of the west.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for lmz643.

Update... Stumpf
today tonight and aviation marine... Ddv
Sunday through Friday... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 10 mi85 min S 11 G 14 52°F 1006.8 hPa (-2.7)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 19 mi45 min SE 12 G 13 55°F
45186 25 mi45 min ESE 12 G 14 53°F 50°F2 ft
45013 26 mi55 min SSE 16 G 19 51°F 47°F4 ft1006.9 hPa
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 42 mi45 min SE 14 G 18 56°F
45174 42 mi25 min ESE 9.7 G 14 51°F2 ft1004.6 hPa (-3.3)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 46 mi45 min S 6 G 8.9 54°F 1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI2 mi32 minSSE 1110.00 miFair59°F45°F60%1007.2 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI12 mi92 minS 8 G 1810.00 miFair68°F46°F46%1006.8 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI17 mi33 minSE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F46°F62%1006.4 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi30 minSSE 810.00 miFair62°F46°F56%1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRAC

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12SE9S9S9
G18
SE10S7S7S8S9S7S8S5S4S7S8S9S11S11S10S10S9S12S15S11
1 day agoNE3NE3NE5CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE7S12S15S13
G23
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2 days agoNW13
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NW7NW4NW5NW5NW6NW6NW6W6NW5W4NW6W5NW5NW6NW6NW8--NW6NW5N4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.