Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Racine, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:32PM Thursday July 9, 2020 3:55 AM CDT (08:55 UTC) Moonrise 11:37PMMoonset 9:49AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Am Cdt Thu Jul 9 2020
Early this morning..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves nearly calm.
Today..South wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and early afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots veering southwest early in the morning. Thunderstorms likely and a chance of showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:202007092100;;558158 FZUS53 KMKX 090805 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-092100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Racine, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 090448 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1148 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

UPDATE. The MCS over nrn WI is expected to shift more swd tnt but most likely dissipate before reaching srn WI. Slight chances for storms toward central WI toward morning. A well organized shortwave trough will then move approach and move across srn WI and nrn IL for Wed aft-nt. Although wind shear will be weak, relatively large CAPE and potential wet microbursts and outflow will bring a SVR threat.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS). VFR conditions for tnt-Thu, but tstorms will develop from west to east Thu aft-eve. The storms will bring gusty winds, limited vsbys and low cigs.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 942 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020)

UPDATE . The forecast is on track for tnt-Thu.

MARINE . Light to modest sly flow will continue over Lake MI tnt-Thu, followed by a cold front that will shift the winds to light to modest nwly flow for late Thu nt-Fri AM.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 712 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020)

UPDATE . Convective initiation will be possible early this evening along the outflow boundary and lake breeze collision in ne Waukesha, Washington, and ern Fond du Lac Counties. Any showers or storms should remain isold. Otherwise, will watch for a MCS which may dive sewd from ne MN and nw WI for late tnt. But there is only a slight possibility it will affect locales toward central WI. Finally, a well organized shortwave trough will then move approach and move across srn WI and nrn IL for Wed aft-nt. Although wind shear will be weak, relatively large CAPE and potential wet microbursts and outflow will bring a SVR threat.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) . VFR conditions for tnt-Thu, but tstorms will develop from west to east Thu aft-eve. The storms will bring gusty winds, limited vsbys and low cigs.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 323 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight Through Thursday Night . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Lingering showers and weak storms are expected across the region, and will dissipate into the evening as we lose sunlight.

Kept the Heat Advisory going until 7 PM CDT, though only the far western counties have reached 100 degree heat index values. These values are still in the upper 90s in the rest of the Heat Advisory area, so will leave it as is into early this evening.

Overnight into the early morning, some models are suggesting we could see some outflow showers/weak storms from an MCS in northern Wisconsin. This would generally not be expected to cause any major concerns, as it should be deteriorating as it comes into the northern portions of the CWA. In addition, the cold/stationary front will persist across much of northern Wisconsin. This will keep chances for weak showers and thunderstorms through the early morning, primarily to the northwest parts of the CWA.

The main concerns for Thursday will come in the afternoon and evening, as a strong upper level low/shortwave and associated MCV from Iowa makes its way towards the CWA. This will trigger storms across the region, some of which may be strong. Although there will not be much in the way of shear, there is a period in the early to mid evening that we may see some better deep layer shear.

In addition, for much of the afternoon and early evening we will have plenty of instability of at least 2000 J/kg. With the strong forcing, potential for large hail and damaging winds will remain the primary concerns. With the additional shear in the early to mid-evening, we could see storms increase in strength briefly or at least be maintained for a few more hours, before we lose instability by the late evening. Forcing will continue to be present overnight Thursday night, and may bring continuing rain potential across the CWA.

The other concern will be rainfall and flooding. We will likely have fairly high PWATs of 1.50 to 2.00 inches with favorable Corfidi Vectors. This is favorable for some flooding potential. However, given the lack of rain over the past month or so, most areas will be able to handle the rain. Where the concern will lie is in the urban areas that have the tendency to be a bit more flashy, especially the areas that we just recently hit with heavy rainfall.

Friday Through Friday Night . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

The main 500 mb shortwave trough/remnant MCV circulation is expected to slowly shift east across and east of the area on Friday. This, along with the weak surface low, should continue to bring chances for showers and storms Friday morning, before tapering off west to east in the afternoon. The NAM is slower than the other models with ending precipitation across the area, but sided more with the consensus of the other models. Expected clouds may keep highs a little cooler than currently forecast.

Friday night should end up dry across the area, with any convection remaining well west of the area. GFS tries to bring some light QPF into the far west later Friday night, though this seems unlikely to occur as it is much further east than the other models.

LONG TERM .

Saturday Through Sunday Night . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are bringing a 500 mb shortwave trough southeast through the region Saturday afternoon and night. Some cyclogenesis occurs ahead of this feature over southern Wisconsin by 00Z Sunday, then shifts to the southeast Saturday night. Continued chances for showers and storms Saturday afternoon and night. Warm and humid conditions should continue ahead of this system Saturday, though may be a little cooler with the large spread in NBM highs.

May see some diurnal showers and storms occur Sunday, though this activity may be more widely scattered. High pressure should then build into the region Sunday night, bringing dry conditions. Temperatures may be a little cooler than currently forecast for Sunday, as there continues to be a fairly large spread in the NBM highs.

Monday Through Wednesday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

The highs should move off to the east Monday, with south winds and very warm and humid conditions returning to the region Tuesday into Wednesday. An approaching cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday may bring the next decent chances for showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION(21Z TAF UPDATES) .

Cumulus clouds have developed across the region, including isolated showers and weak storms, which have not been able to last very long. From now through the early evening, expect potential for an isolated shower/storm that could bring brief heavy rainfall perhaps impacting VSBYS.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across the area, with scattered CIGS clearing out by the early evening.

Into tomorrow, we will start to see a system push in from the west. This will bring potential for some scattered showers overnight and into tomorrow morning, but these will mostly stick to the north and west. Into the afternoon and evening, we will see better potential for scattered to widespread storms across the region. This will cause some aviation VSBY concerns with heavy rain, small hail and gusty winds possible.

MARINE .

Mostly quiet conditions with increasing southerly winds are expected across Lake Michigan tonight, with a broad area of high pressure drifting east. Increasing southerly winds are expected for Thursday, as low pressure pushes across northern Ontario. This will drag a weak cold front across the lake later in the day on Thursday, with storm potential across the lake into Friday morning. Then winds will shift to west/northwest on Friday.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . Gehring Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine . ARK Thursday Night through Wednesday . Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 10 mi56 min S 4.1 G 5.1 77°F 1011.5 hPa (-0.4)
45187 17 mi76 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 75°F 75°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 19 mi46 min NNE 1 G 1 77°F
45013 26 mi56 min SE 3.9 G 3.9 74°F 66°F1011.9 hPa (-0.4)
45174 42 mi36 min SSW 1.9 G 3.9 78°F 78°F1011.3 hPa70°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 46 mi76 min Calm G 1 73°F 1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI2 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair76°F68°F77%1011.7 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI12 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair73°F68°F84%1011.3 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI17 mi64 minSSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds77°F68°F74%1010.7 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair72°F66°F84%1010.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRAC

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmCalmS53SW5W5W5SE6S7SE6SE8SE8S8S10S5S5S5S7SW3S3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmW3CalmSW5W7W7SW8NW8NW5E8SE8SE9S9S9S11N18
G34
N8CalmSW6W6CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW4W6W6W7--S5S9S9S12S10S8S12S9S6S6S4SW5SW5SW5SW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.