Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Racine, WI

UPDATE
Issued 1045 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

With the DGZ extending all the way to the surface today, and a general lack of upper-air forcing for ascent, the main driving factor behind today's additional snowfall is surface to 925mb FGEN (as opposed to the typical 850-700mb levels we typically analyze FGEN). As such, the modeled surface to 925mb wind fields in model output (specifically the SW to NW wind shift axis / convergence axis) serve as a good proxy for where to expect additional snowfall this afternoon / evening. The general expectation (based off the latest CAMs) is for weak surface based frontogenesis to continue to linger over our region (roughly where the existing snowfall and wind shift are over southern WI), with a very slow drift southeastward, confined to far eastern / southeastern WI into the evening, then pushing out over Lake MI by around 9 PM CST.

Generally expecting 1 to 3 inches of additional accumulation, with rates briefly reaching (or even exceeding) 1 inch per hour in some spots. KMSN airport recently confirmed these snowfall rates via a 1-hour snowboard measurement (~1.5 inch per hour). A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the affected area.
Given how dry and powdery the snowfall is, some marginal blowing snow will be possible (further reducing visibility), with west to northwest winds occasionally gusting up to 25 MPH. On the bright side, winds have generally been underwhelming (with the exception of far eastern / southeastern WI) over the past few hours. Gusts are currently 20 MPH or less further west, with some potential to increase slightly this afternoon / early evening.

Sheppard

SHORT TERM
Issued 456 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Today through Sunday night:

The narrow band moderate to heavy snow continues to meander and morph slowly over the Highway 18 and Interstate 94 corridor early this morning. The heaviest snow is currently over northern Milwaukee and northeast Waukesha Counties, with mainly light snow elsewhere in the Winter Weather Advisory area. Snow rates of one half to one inch per hour are expected with this narrow band, with rates of one quarter inch per hour or less elsewhere. 1 to 2 inches of additional snow accumulation is forecast for the advisory area at this time.

This band has been driven by 850 mb to 700 mb frontogenesis response from a slowly moving trough in this layer. The narrow snow band has been essentially quasi-stationary this evening into the overnight hours, though it has recently been reduced to the current affected area. Forecast soundings are also showing a deep and saturated dendrite snow growth zone from overnight lingering into today. This snow band has been quite difficult to forecast, and there is some uncertainty with what may occur with this band into today.

CAMs and other models suggest that this band may linger across the advisory area into this morning, before slowly shifting southward this afternoon and southeast of the area by early to middle evening. Continued monitoring will be needed to see if this narrow heavy snow band will redevelop or will become more light snow into this morning, and if the current advisory needs any extension in time and/or expansion to the south.

Another Arctic cold front shifting southeast through the region this evening would help shift this snow out of the area. Thus, have kept light snow in the forecast with high probabilities (80 to 100 percent) today before exiting southeast by middle evening. CAMs have some possible convective snow showers shifting southeast but missing northeast parts of the forecast area this evening. This may need some watching, as the snow squall parameter is over one to the northeast of the area.
Again, most of this activity should remain to the northeast.

Another period of light snow is expected Sunday afternoon, exiting to the southeast Sunday night, with warm air advection and deep moisture combining with a cold frontal passage and some differential CVA passing through. Forecast soundings show steep low level lapse rates with saturation in the dendrite snow growth zone during this period.

For now, have another period of high probabilities for light snow (70 to 90 percent) Sunday afternoon. Snow rates should generally be around one quarter inch per hour or less, with light QPF and high snow to liquid ratios allowing for snow accumulations of 1 to perhaps up to 2 inches possible.

Cold lows in the single digits above zero are expected tonight, with wind chills in the single digits below zero. Wind chills should dip to or below 20 below zero Sunday night into Monday morning, and a Cold Weather Advisory may be needed for the entire area. Lows Sunday night should drop below zero for most of the area with the fresh snow cover.

Wood

LONG TERM
Issued 456 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Monday through Friday:

Bitterly cold conditions will continue through the day Monday, with temperatures struggling to get much above zero.
Additionally, winds gusting 25 to 30 MPH will result in the wind chills of 20 below to 25 below zero early morning, only improving to 10 below to 20 below zero by the afternoon. Though below zero temps are expected Monday night, winds will be lighter as high pressure slides by to the southwest, resulting in wind chills remaining in the 10 below to 20 below zero range.

Dry weather is likely Monday into Tuesday, with a shortwave possibly brining snow chances back to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures will be a little milder mid-week, though likely remaining below normal. Colder conditions are then expected to return late week into the weekend, along with light snow chances.

DDV

AVIATION
Issued 1045 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Expecting light to moderate snowfall to continue over the region, leading to IFR/LIFR visibility and ceilings. Some of the lighter snow / flurries towards central WI have been associated with ~2,500 ft / 5SM MVFR cigs / vis. This will continue to be the status quo through the afternoon, with the snow confined to just southeastern WI into the evening, moving out over Lake MI by around 9 PM CST (at which point the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory expires). With a light and powdery snow texture, some marginal blowing and drifting snow may occur, leading to additional periods of reduced visibility. Winds will be out of the west / northwest at around 12 knots, occasionally gusting to around 20 knots.

A lull in the snow is expected late this evening through mid Sunday morning, with continued potential for MVFR / Fuel-Alt MVFR ceilings (most estimates between 1,500 and 3,000 ft, with some brief windows of > 3,000 ft VFR possible). Northwest winds decelerate and back southwest.

Sheppard

MARINE
Issued 456 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Low pressure around 29.3 inches will move into eastern Ontario today. Gusty west winds are expected over southern portions of the lake, with lighter winds to the north. Winds should become more northwest tonight, as a cold front shifts southeast across the lake.

A Small Craft Advisory has been extended through today south of Port Washington, for gusty west winds.

Another low pressure system around 29.7 inches will track from northwest Minnesota into Lake Superior Sunday afternoon and evening. Winds will turn to southwest to west and increase ahead of this system. A few gusts may approach gale force Sunday afternoon and evening.

A cold front will move across the lake late Sunday evening, causing winds to become west to northwest and strengthen. High pressure around 30.5 inches will move into the central Plains Monday, helping sustain the strong winds.

Gales are likely later Sunday night into Monday, with a Gale Watch in effect for all of Lake Michigan. Building waves and cold air moving into the region will bring a period of freezing spray Sunday night into Tuesday. Some heavy freezing spray is possible during this period.

The Gale Watch is in effect for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan as well later Sunday night into Monday morning. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, with another Monday into Monday evening, for gusty winds. Freezing spray may occur.

Winds will weaken and shift west to southwest Monday night into Tuesday night, ahead of another low pressure system around 29.9 inches shifting from Alberta towards the Great Lakes.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM Saturday.

Gale Watch...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...midnight Monday to noon Monday.

Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...midnight Monday to 6 PM Monday.