Wednesday, August5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Aurelia, IA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:41PM Wednesday August 5, 2020 8:36 PM CDT (01:36 UTC) Moonrise 9:09PMMoonset 7:06AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aurelia, IA
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location: 42.73, -95.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Sioux Falls, SD
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FXUS63 KFSD 052350 AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 650 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

The main focus for tonight's forecast is on very limited potential for severe weather tonight. Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a stronger shortwave trough in northwest flow aloft tracking through northeastern SD into western MN. Height falls associated with this disturbance will aid in forcing for ascent for development of new isolated storm activity through this evening. Ahead of a weak surface boundary around the MO River Valley of central SD, clearing skies and broad warm air advection across the remainder of the region should allow for some destabilization this afternoon with dew points creeping into the lower 60s. However with stratus lingering across much of the region, destabilization has been slower and weaker than previous expected, making it difficult to erode mid level capping.

Meager instability and mid level lapse rates, along with most high resolution model guidance, suggest a very low (but nonzero) chance of additional storm development this evening. This would be most likely in the MO River Valley where stratus has cleared, but forcing aloft is likely too weak to support new storm development there this evening. If any new storms can develop in this environment, a 40- 50kt 500mb jet from the northwest and southerly sfc winds would sustain ample deep layer shear for organized updrafts. Assuming storms could maintain close proximity to unstable air in a south/southeastward storm motion, an isolated severe storm or two could produce gusts up to 60 mph (DCAPE > 1000J/kg) and perhaps hail up to quarter size.

Severe weather threat degrades further after sunset due to waning instability, but did maintain a slight chance for warm air advection showers and storms overnight in far southeast SD and northwest IA where existence of elevated instability remains possible. Slight chances for rain linger in northwest IA into Thursday, when the upper trough departs to the east. A more likely impact, supported by a majority of model soundings, is lingering cloud cover overnight along and east of I-29 with patchy fog possible early Thursday. Big question for Thursday is how long clouds and/or fog will linger in the region. If they linger later into the day, high temperatures, which are currently expected to reach the 80s, may not be realized across parts of northwest IA and southwest MN.

LONG TERM. (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

For Thursday night into Friday, the region falls under the influence of upper ridging, yielding drier and warmer weather. Breezy southerly winds will persist daily with dew points well into the 60s linger in the region.

For late Friday night through the weekend, notably warmer air feeds into the region amidst strong warm air advection ahead of an approaching front. In fact, mid level temperatures near the 95th percentile of NAEFS climatology on Saturday. With daily highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s over the weekend and dew points in the 70s, heat indices will peak in the 90s to near 100 degrees each afternoon.

Chances for showers and storms are introduced in relation to a front/inverted sfc trough over the western Dakotas late Friday night into Saturday. This disturbance should progress through the region by Monday, but confidence in the progression and any details is low at this time. Thus, despite the seemingly many periods of rain chances, we will see periods of dry weather over the weekend as well. Upper ridging should break down by early next week, yielding a cooler and more comfortable (less humid) weather pattern for at least a day or two.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening into the overnight for northwest IA (including KSUX), northeast NE, and southwest MN as a weak weather system moves through. Strong storms look unlikely; however, small hail and gusty winds could accompany the strongest cells. Southeast SD will likely avoid most shower activity, but very light winds in the boundary layer along with mostly clear skies will likely lead to areas of fog. Have included this in the KHON TAF, which is close to the center of the surface high pressure. Fog is not expected to be widespread or dense, and is forecast dissipate shortly after sunrise. Light south and southeast winds of 8 to 12 kt re-develop for the daytime hours Thursday.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SD . NONE. MN . NONE. IA . NONE. NE . NONE.

SHORT TERM . BP LONG TERM . BP AVIATION . VandenBoogart


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherokee, Cherokee Municipal Airport, IA10 mi41 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast70°F60°F71%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCKP

Wind History from CKP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3S3CalmCalmS6SE3S4S3S5S4S5S5S8S7S9S11S12
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6SE4SE4E4S3CalmCalmSE3CalmSE5SE4SE4
2 days agoCalmNE3CalmCalmNE3CalmN3CalmCalmN3N4NE5NE3NE6CalmNE5NW4N4N4NW3N4N4NE3E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Sioux Falls, SD (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Des Moines, IA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.