Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aurelia, IA
July 26, 2024 6:52 PM CDT (23:52 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:11 AM Sunset 8:53 PM Moonrise 10:45 PM Moonset 11:24 AM |
Area Discussion for - Sioux Falls, SD
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FXUS63 KFSD 262328 AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Hot and humid conditions will continue through next week.
Daily afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s with dew points in the low 70s will result in late afternoon heat index values in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees.
- Wildfire smoke will remain over the area through at least early Saturday. Surface impacts will be minimal, but Air Quality is in the Moderate category this afternoon. Those who are highly sensitive to air pollution may be impacted.
- Low chances (<20%) for showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning and early afternoon. Sunday evening chances increase (35-55%) for scattered thunderstorms. There is potential some storms could become strong to severe, mostly during the overnight hours.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Afternoon skies continue to be obscured by wildfire smoke. While most of the smoke has remained aloft, air quality due to PM2.5 at the surface has remained in the Moderate category (level 2 of 6).
While this will not impact most, very sensitive populations may need to restrict their time outdoors.
Winds this afternoon and into the evening will be breezy out of the south. Gusts 20-25 mph will continue through midnight, calming slightly toward Saturday morning. Lows tonight will be on the warm side of average in the low 70s. Chances for fog overnight are low (<15%), and if any does form it will be patchy in nature. Areas most likely to see fog or low stratus development is east of I-29.
Winds will increase again and become south-southwesterly as the SPG tightens in the afternoon. This will bring in slightly drier air and so conditions will be slightly less humid than Friday. Strong WAA will still result in hot afternoon highs in the upper 80s east of I- 29, and low 90s west. Aloft, flow becomes northwesterly and begins to push wildfire smoke out of the area.
Conditions for Sunday will be hot and humid with highs again in the mid 80s east of I-29, and low 90s west. Dew points will be in the 60s to low 70s. A series of weak mid-level waves Sunday brings periodic low chances (<20%) chances for isolated to scattered and thunderstorms during the morning and early afternoon. These storms should remain sub-severe, but could produce a few stronger wind gusts. Sunday evening a stronger wave could trigger additional thunderstorms with the potential that a few could become strong to severe. High instability and steep mid- level lapse rates will be in place over a large portion of the region, but so will a strong capping inversion. The best forcing looks to remain to our north, so there is a question as to whether or not the cap can be broken. Currently, the best chance for stronger storms looks to be overnight when the LLJ picks up and a band of 850 mb vorticity pushes in from the west. Lows for Sunday night will be slightly cooler thanks to the northwesterly winds behind the cold front, in the mid to upper 60s.
CAA results in slightly cooler day for Monday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Dew points will still be high, though, in the 60s and 70s. By Tuesday morning, winds will again be out of the south, and WAA will increase, as will the flow of moist air into the region from the south. Hot and muggy will be the story for the first half of the week. In addition there will be periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms as a series of weak disturbances move through the mid-levels. By the end of the week another high pressure ridge looks to begin building in.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
VFR conditions will be the rule at TAF airfields through 28.00Z.
Lingering isolated CU early this evening will quickly dissipate within the next couple hours with mostly clear/sunny skies continuing through the remainder of the period given relatively dry atmospheric column.
Southerly surface winds will remain breezy this evening and overnight with occasional gusts up to 22 kts at KHON/KFSD, whereas winds will weaken a bit and turn to the southeast at KSUX. Winds Saturday will once again be from the south with gusts to 25 kts at all TAF airfields.
Stronger winds aloft overnight will allow for some low-level wind shear concerns at KHON/KFSD. Expect winds in the 1500 to 2500 kft layer to increase to between 40 and 45 kts before diminishing after sunrise Saturday morning.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Hot and humid conditions will continue through next week.
Daily afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s with dew points in the low 70s will result in late afternoon heat index values in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees.
- Wildfire smoke will remain over the area through at least early Saturday. Surface impacts will be minimal, but Air Quality is in the Moderate category this afternoon. Those who are highly sensitive to air pollution may be impacted.
- Low chances (<20%) for showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning and early afternoon. Sunday evening chances increase (35-55%) for scattered thunderstorms. There is potential some storms could become strong to severe, mostly during the overnight hours.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Afternoon skies continue to be obscured by wildfire smoke. While most of the smoke has remained aloft, air quality due to PM2.5 at the surface has remained in the Moderate category (level 2 of 6).
While this will not impact most, very sensitive populations may need to restrict their time outdoors.
Winds this afternoon and into the evening will be breezy out of the south. Gusts 20-25 mph will continue through midnight, calming slightly toward Saturday morning. Lows tonight will be on the warm side of average in the low 70s. Chances for fog overnight are low (<15%), and if any does form it will be patchy in nature. Areas most likely to see fog or low stratus development is east of I-29.
Winds will increase again and become south-southwesterly as the SPG tightens in the afternoon. This will bring in slightly drier air and so conditions will be slightly less humid than Friday. Strong WAA will still result in hot afternoon highs in the upper 80s east of I- 29, and low 90s west. Aloft, flow becomes northwesterly and begins to push wildfire smoke out of the area.
Conditions for Sunday will be hot and humid with highs again in the mid 80s east of I-29, and low 90s west. Dew points will be in the 60s to low 70s. A series of weak mid-level waves Sunday brings periodic low chances (<20%) chances for isolated to scattered and thunderstorms during the morning and early afternoon. These storms should remain sub-severe, but could produce a few stronger wind gusts. Sunday evening a stronger wave could trigger additional thunderstorms with the potential that a few could become strong to severe. High instability and steep mid- level lapse rates will be in place over a large portion of the region, but so will a strong capping inversion. The best forcing looks to remain to our north, so there is a question as to whether or not the cap can be broken. Currently, the best chance for stronger storms looks to be overnight when the LLJ picks up and a band of 850 mb vorticity pushes in from the west. Lows for Sunday night will be slightly cooler thanks to the northwesterly winds behind the cold front, in the mid to upper 60s.
CAA results in slightly cooler day for Monday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Dew points will still be high, though, in the 60s and 70s. By Tuesday morning, winds will again be out of the south, and WAA will increase, as will the flow of moist air into the region from the south. Hot and muggy will be the story for the first half of the week. In addition there will be periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms as a series of weak disturbances move through the mid-levels. By the end of the week another high pressure ridge looks to begin building in.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
VFR conditions will be the rule at TAF airfields through 28.00Z.
Lingering isolated CU early this evening will quickly dissipate within the next couple hours with mostly clear/sunny skies continuing through the remainder of the period given relatively dry atmospheric column.
Southerly surface winds will remain breezy this evening and overnight with occasional gusts up to 22 kts at KHON/KFSD, whereas winds will weaken a bit and turn to the southeast at KSUX. Winds Saturday will once again be from the south with gusts to 25 kts at all TAF airfields.
Stronger winds aloft overnight will allow for some low-level wind shear concerns at KHON/KFSD. Expect winds in the 1500 to 2500 kft layer to increase to between 40 and 45 kts before diminishing after sunrise Saturday morning.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KCKP
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCKP
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCKP
Wind History graph: CKP
(wind in knots)
Des Moines, IA,
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