Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aurelia, IA

UPDATE
Issued at 349 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

High level clouds have pushed southeast, leaving mostly clear skies and drier conditions across the CWA this morning. Behind the weak cold front, surface high pressure will remain in place for the day. Synoptic and mesoscale guidance (GFS/ECMWF/HRRR)
remain in good agreement on a dry column from the surface through the mid-levels, limiting fog potential. Wind speeds are also a limiting factor, with sustained 5- 10 mph if not higher through the morning. If any isolated fog were to develop, chances remain confined to river valleys near and south of Highway 18 across southeast SD and northwest IA, and burning off quickly by mid-morning.

Sunny and pleasant conditions hold steady through the day with minimal cloud cover (<20% via 7z NBM) and light winds allowing afternoon high temperatures to warm into the upper 50s and low 60s.
Potential to tap into the mixed layer continues to support high temperatures slightly warmer than the NBM. Quiet weather continues through Sunday night into Monday morning until a weak front moves through, changing wind directions from predominantly west/northwesterly to a more southerly flow. The continued dry environment and northwest flow aloft will sustain sunshine and above normal temperatures to start the week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 201 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Dry west to northwest flow aloft will bring dry and mild conditions to the surface through early next week. A weak boundary will sag into the area later tonight into Sunday as low pressure moves east along the Canadian border. Other than a little moisture in the 500 to 300 mb layer, dry air below will keep any precipitation from forming. Given the mild low levels, expect highs in the 50s and 60s Sunday and Monday, warmer on Monday.

Another weak surface cool front sags south Monday night into Tuesday, but high temperatures will still climb well into the 50s.
Once again, the wave to the north responsible for this weak front lacks moisture, so precipitation is not expected.

A sharp ridge of high pressure will develop over the western U.S. and allow for a northerly upper level jet to dive south onto the Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will likely bring a quick shot of light precipitation with only minor impacts anticipated. The latest EC, Canadian and GFS ensemble output only hinting at a 5-10 percent chance for more than a tenth of an inch of rain.

The sharp ridge of high pressure aloft strengthens through the week, keeping northerly flow in place through the end of the week with near to below normal temperatures expected. This ridge is then expected to spread across the Plains neat weekend which would support very mild, above normal temperatures. Precipitation during this time is not expected.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 532 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period, with minimal impacts to aviation. Winds stay light, and shift with the front passing through late Sunday/early Monday from westerly to southerly. There is some concern with the strengthening of the LLJ to cause LLWS towards the end of the period for KHON and KFSD and the area in between, though confidence exact timing and strength at this time is low.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.