Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:38 AM

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FXUS61 KBGM 281745 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 145 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front moves through the region today with a few showers and thunderstorms. A stronger cold front an area of low pressure brings another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. High pressure attempts to build into the region for the middle of next week. Temperatures remain well above average all week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
945 AM Update

Low clouds are burning off for most of the area this morning, allowing for sunshine mixed with scattered mid level cloud cover. The low clouds are lingering the longest over the Wyoming Valley, but these should dissipate by noon. Still expecting a cluster of showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop over the southern Finger Lakes and Central Southern tier by 2-4 PM, then dive south-southeast across NE PA into the early evening hours. Instability is progged to be around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE with LI values only modestly unstable around -1 to -3. Deep layer shear from the incoming 12z guidance is up slightly, around 40 kts. A few of these storms could produce brief heavy downpours, small hail and gusty winds.Temperatures were bumped up closer to the latest NBM/Bias Corrected guidance, as the warm front will surge northeast pretty well later this morning; therefore highs will range in the 70s for most locations this afternoon, except low 80s for the Wyoming Valley.

Previous Discussion Below

A warm front will slowly move east of the region this morning. This allows most of the region to enter a warm sector ahead of a cold front across the Great Lakes. As a result, shower and spotty thunderstorm chances shift north and east this morning to the NY Thruway area southeast toward Sullivan County NY. Some clearing is anticipated later this morning and afternoon across most of CNY into NE PA with these areas a bit more firmly in the warm sector. With most of us in the warm sector 70's should be realized for this afternoon.

Enough lift and moisture looks present for some showers to develop this afternoon with the afternoon heating. It does not look really unstable but enough to promote a few thunderstorms as well. CAPE values are modeled to reach around 500 J/KG today coupled with 20-30 knots of 0-6KM bulk shear. As a result, a few thunderstorms may organize into a couple of clusters with some gusty winds from the Finger Lakes this afternoon into NE PA by early evening.

The frontal boundary remains over the region through Monday.
However, lift needed for more than a spotty shower or thunderstorm shifts to our northwest with an area of low pressure across the Great Lakes. Given the continued warm and moist advection with westerly/southwesterly air, low temperatures will continue to trend warmer only falling into the 50's tonight. With the front over our region Monday a fairly noticeable temperature gradient looks to set up from south to north from the 80's to even a few 60's for highs north of NY Thruway.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
340 AM Update...
Upper level ridge axis remains over the region Monday night with a trough beginning to push into the Great Lakes. Moisture, lift, and modest instability moves ahead of the trough and along the ridge setting off some rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region. Warm air advection continues with mild temperatures settling in overnight. Lows are expected to range in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Similar pattern continues on Tuesday as the upper level low slowly moves into the region dragging a cold front along with it. Both of these features provide enhanced lift over our region increasing the chance of thunderstorms with the possibility of some being severe in nature. In terms of instability CAPE values are ranging from 500-800 J/Kg with 0-6 km bulk shear values up to 35 knots. Severe chances will depend on timing of the front and how quickly the ridge breaks down Tuesday morning. Current model runs show the trough arriving late afternoon and early evening. A warm front may also move ahead of the cold front with some pop up showers possible. This may also limit instability for the afternoon as well. Highs are expected to range in the upper 70s to low 80s with lows in the 50s overnight.

In terms of flash flooding, corfidi vectors remain favorable for a short time frame in the afternoon. This supports potential training to occur in developing storms. Although the warm cloud depth layer remains unfavorable at this time which could also hinder these chances. Otherwise PWAT values are about 2-3 standard deviations above normal suggesting sufficient moisture will be available to replenish storms.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
340 AM Update...
Temperatures behind the front wont cool significantly as warm air quickly returns to the region with a ridge sliding into the Eastern US on Wednesday. A slight chance of showers are possible, depending how fast the upper trough exits. There are some timing differences in model guidance. Otherwise a brief dry period works its way into the region Thursday as the ridge strengthens. Rain showers and thunderstorm chances return on Friday and Saturday as an upper trough over the central US begins to advance eastwards. With the ridge in place during this period temperatures will range in the upper 60s to mid 70s during the day. Overnight lows will remain relatively mild falling into the low to mid 50s.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

1730Z Update

VFR areawide currently, however showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over the region between 18 to 24z this afternoon/evening. These will bring occasional restrictions, with the best chance to see a t'storm at ELM, ITH, BGM and AVP where tempo groups were added to the TAFs (mainly 19-24z). SYR and RME have less instability, with only rain showers expected.

The frontal boundary drops back south into Central NY/Twin Tiers later this evening and overnight. Winds become light and variable with low stratus and areas of fog likely to develop after sunset. RME and SYR are the first sites to go MVFR Fuel Alt by 20-22z, then IFR or lower here after 00-03z this evening.

Further south, ITH, ELM and BGM fall to IFR by 03-08z tonight, with both CIG and VSBY restrictions. Below Alternate Minimum restrictions are possible at all 3 sites for a time late tonight into early Monday. The lower stratus clouds stall near or just north of AVP, bringing perhaps a short window of MVFR restrictions late tonight into mid-morning Monday, with some patchy light fog around here too.

The CIGs lift up, out of IFR by quickly between 13-16z Monday, and mainly VFR by 18z...except still lingering MVFR at SYR and RME on the north side of the warm front.

Outlook...

Monday Afternoon...Lingering MVFR SYR and RME. VFR expected for the rest of our taf sites

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in rain showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday...Lingering morning clouds and restrictions possible, becoming VFR in the afternoon.

Thursday...VFR Likely.

Friday..Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t'storms possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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