Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Coopers, NY

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coopers, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 081934 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 334 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Smoke will become less dense as it shifts west and as a result, visibilities will improve. An upper level low in eastern New England will bring scattered light rain showers to the region through the start of the weekend. There will be a better chance for more widespread showers early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

330 PM Update...

We continue to be under the influence of a stationary upper level low to the east of us. As a result, another shortwave moves into our region this afternoon kicking off scattered rain showers over central NY. Some of the showers could be convective with CAPE present in the soundings. QPF is expected to be low due to the showers being sporadic and spread out over the area. Rain showers are expected to dissipate once they encounter dry air over NEPA. In terms of near surface smoke, visibilities are expected to improve this afternoon/evening and into the night as the highest concentration drifts west. More elevated smoke is slower to clear out with dominant northwest flow continuing.
Therefore skies are expected to remain hazy throughout this period and temperatures were lowered to reflect this.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the 40s overnight. A shallow and weak inversion develops tonight which could favor patchy fog formation, but confidence is low as clouds could prevent it.

Upper level low persists tomorrow sending yet another short wave to the area. This brings another round of afternoon showers, with the potential for some isolated thunderstorms. Northerly flow keeps temperatures cool with highs in the 60s with a few spots reaching the 70s. Also less smoke is expected tomorrow, providing more instability due to more solar radiation being able to get through. Shear is lacking in model soundings therefore SPC convective outlook suggests only general thunder for our region and we concur. Rain showers are expected to diminish tomorrow night breifly brefore returning Saturday morning.
Lows are expected to cool into the 40s at night.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
3:30 AM Update...

The upper level low begins to move off to the NE Friday night with flow briefly out of the NNW that could bring in some more smoke for late Friday night into Saturday. Luckily the NNW flow does not last long as a trough begins to dig into the western Great Lakes helping flow become more westerly and eventually southwesterly in the low levels later Saturday. Models have trended towards stronger ridging over us for Saturday as that trough digs so forecast soundings indicate more capping likely so chances of showers and thunderstorms were lowered across most of the region. The highest chances have been kept around the Catskills with the higher terrain.

For Saturday night into Sunday, there has been a big trend towards the digging trough becoming a cut off low over the upper Midwest so that likely keeps us under the ridge. Chances of precipitation for Sunday were lowered greatly from the previous forecast to mostly just a slight chance and if the trend continues to stronger ridging, chances of precipitation may have to be removed entirely.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
3:30 AM Update...

There is finally a better looking chance at some meaningful rain in the long term. With the trend towards a cut off low, odds have increased of a slow moving surface low that develops across the Ohio River Vally early next week. Strong southerly flow develops ahead of the low helping to advect deep moisture with PWATs in ensemble means getting over 1.5 inches which is some of the highest values we have seen since the April rain. As of now, the biggest uncertainty is the speed at which the front moves through or if a weak coastal low is able to form as the interior low occludes. The EPS has trended towards a widespread 1 inch or more of QPF across much of our region while the GEFS is a little lower with the mean QPF down around 0.75 to an inch. Almost all ensemble members have precipitation early next week with uncertainty on timing.

Once the shortwave moves through late next week, flow becomes northerly again and if the fires in Quebec are still active after some of the rain this week, we could be dealing with some smoke again. At least with the early week rain, odds are there will be better evapotranspiration so with the upper level trough overhead, it will be easier to develop some afternoon instability so chances of precipitation were kept for each afternoon late next week.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Widespread smoke over the region has drifted west allowing visibilities to improve greatly at most terminals. Smoke is expected to linger a bit longer at AVP with MVFR visibility before gradually improving to VFR. Rain showers are expected this afternoon/evening mainly impacting NY terminals. If a shower were to pass directly over a terminal, then brief restrictions may be possible. Confidence was too low to include showers at AVP as they may dissipate before getting that far south.

MVFR to Fuel Alt ceilings are expected at RME/SYR/ITH/ELM/BGM from 08-13Z tonight due to saturated conditions aloft. Rain showers are also possible tomorrow afternoon with occasional isolated thunderstorms, but was left out at this time. North- northwesterly winds will be fairly light throughout this TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Mostly VFR; Chance for showers each day, which may lead to brief restrictions.

Sunday through Tuesday...Possible restrictions with rain showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York

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