Monday, April19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Aurora, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:54PM Monday April 19, 2021 6:16 PM EDT (22:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:12AMMoonset 1:18AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 428 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening...
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers after midnight. Showers likely late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Rain and snow overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Snow and rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Snow and rain showers likely in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Thursday night. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
LOZ044 Expires:202104200315;;810213 FZUS51 KBUF 192028 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 428 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-200315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aurora, NY
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location: 42.74, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 192141 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 541 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Scattered shower activity will taper off this evening, giving way to quiet weather through Tuesday. Another storm system will move into NY and PA Wednesday with additional rain showers.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/.

530 PM Update

Lowered PoPs a bit and removed the mention of isolated thunderstorms this evening from the forecast, as this potential has now moved east of our area. Upstream satellite and radar show partly sunny skies and perhaps just an isolated shower or two for much of CNY and NE PA through sunset. Also, increased PoPs into the likely range late tonight into Tuesday morning across the NY Thruway corridor from Cayuga county east to Oneida county, as the CAMS and other hi- res guidance is indicating an area of rain developing here along a frontal boundary. Rest of the near term forecast is on track.

Previous Discussion Below

Pop-up showers and isolated thunderstorms will taper off early this evening as we lose diurnal heating. Any storms which fire will produce small hail due to the very low altitude 0C isotherm.

Skies will be partly cloudy overnight in advance of a frontal system moving across Lake Ontario. Isolated showers will affect the Finger Lakes region. Temperatures will fall into the lower 40s along the NY/PA border.

Mainly dry weather will be over NY and PA Tuesday, though the presence of a frontal system will spark isolated showers across our far northern forecast counties. Temperatures will push into the middle and upper 50s.

A Mid-Atlantic storm will rotate into PA Tuesday night, dragging cold air into northwestern sections of NY. A cold rain will fall across much of the region, but our northern and western counties will see snow mix with the rain. Snow accumulations of 1 to 1.5 inches are possible, especially over high terrain.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. 330 PM Update . The main concern with the short term is the low pressure system traversing through our region on the day Wednesday. Precipitation will have already started by Wednesday morning and most models have the warm front stalled over north central NY. North of the warm front, areas will see mostly snow with this event but 2m temperatures are likely going to be at or above freezing which will limit accumulations and make for a wet sticky snow. Through the day, the warm front transitions to a cold front as the center of the low moves into southern New England in the late morning. Strong CAA quickly transitions the precipitation to snow in the late morning into the early afternoon for CNY and NE PA.

Since most of the snow will be falling during day light hours, snow ratios were greatly lowered to 4:1 over NE PA and about 7:1 over the Finger Lakes region. Higher elevations above 1500 feet were kept near 10:1 west of I-81. Warm ground temperatures will also be melting the snow as it accumulates making the snowfall forecast a challenge. With steep low level lapse rates, snow accumulations will be heavily influenced by elevation with the high elevations of Steuben county, Onondaga county, Madison county, Northern Cortland county, and the southern Tug hill possibly seeing 4 inches or more depending on how quickly the cold air advects in. Current snow accumulations are still uncertain given all the factors at play in late season snowfall during daylight hours.

Wednesday night into Thursday, 850 mb temperatures fall to -10C which is cold enough to support lake effect snow showers. The lake effect snow is expected to be more convective and showery rather than organized bands so there will be an additional 1-2 inches possible over higher elevations of CNY. The snow showers continue into Thursday but as day time heating occurs with the strong solar heating, the snow showers transitions to rain showers before coming to an end late in the afternoon with weakening CAA and a ridge building in. Enough cold air will still be in place Thursday night for below freezing lows once again.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. 330 PM Update .

High pressure will build in from the south on Friday, bringing temperatures back up into the mid 50s to low 60s across the area with mostly sunny skies. Saturday will see temperatures a bit warmer with increasing clouds during the day as the next low pressure system approaches.

Models are in agreement that a low pressures system will move through the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night, bringing a broad swath of rain showers to the area Saturday night through the afternoon on Sunday, tapering off during the evening hours. A ridge will build into the area early in the week, but the models are not in agreement as to how this will transpire. The ECMWF ridge over the central US is more amplified and takes longer to move over the eastern US than the GFS ridge, which is less amplified but broader and follows the departing low pressure system much quicker. The timing of the ridge moving into our area will impact when WAA begins to take place, thus impacting the temperature forecast for Monday. Because confidence during this period is still low, NBM model guidance was used for temperatures.

AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Scattered shower activity will continue to affect the terminals through early evening. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, and any storms which develop will produce small hail. We expect the showers and storms will be non-restrictive.

VFR conditions are forecast for most of our terminals through the next 24 hours. The exception will be Tuesday morning across the KRME and KSYR terminals as ceilings fall to between 1500 and 2500 feet.

Outlook .

Tuesday morning . Minor ceiling restrictions and isolated showers possible for the NY terminals as a weak front moves into the region and dissipates.

Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening . Mainly VFR. Late Tuesday night through Thursday..Low pressure system with rain showers and restrictions likely, especially Wednesday. Rain showers may mix with or change to snow showers Wednesday afternoon-Thursday.

Friday . High pressure and VFR conditions expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . DJP NEAR TERM . DJP/MJM SHORT TERM . AJG LONG TERM . JTC AVIATION . DJP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 51 mi47 min SE 4.1 G 7 61°F 1008.1 hPa34°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi17 min W 2.9 G 8.9 59°F 1009.1 hPa (-0.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 60 mi47 min 53°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY18 mi24 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F34°F38%1008.8 hPa
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY23 mi21 minVar 410.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F34°F39%1009.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW6SW5SW4SW3SW45SW66SW7SW7CalmCalmW4SW6SW4CalmE4SE11645E53
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW34S45SW6SW6SW4S6S5S5SW64NW966NW9W7NW10
G15
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2 days agoNW6W5NW5W6NW3W4NW4NW6NW5NW7NW6NW7NW6NW7NW6NW6N4CalmNW7NW5NW8NW5N3N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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