Tuesday, September22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Aurora, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:04PM Tuesday September 22, 2020 7:35 AM EDT (11:35 UTC) Moonrise 12:10PMMoonset 9:36PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202009221530;;185497 Fzus51 Kbuf 220821 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 421 Am Edt Tue Sep 22 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-221530- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 421 Am Edt Tue Sep 22 2020
Today..South winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest less than 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 55 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aurora, NY
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location: 42.74, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 221049 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 649 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

SYNOPSIS. Staying dry for the rest of the work week, with sunny skies for most days as temperatures warm to more summer like values.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 330 AM Update . Skies are staying clear for today with high pressure in control. Winds will turn a little breezy, however, as the remnants of Teddy working into the Canadian Maritimes lead to a tightening pressure gradient over the area. Otherwise, temperatures are starting off chilly this morning in the 30s, but should quickly jump up into the 60s this afternoon across most of the area with abundant sunshine. Some of our cooler spots across the higher elevations of the Catskills may only stay in the upper 50s, while the wyoming Valley stands a better chance at highs near 70F. Northwest winds should gust up to around 15 to 20 mph especially across the higher elevations this afternoon.

Tonight won't prove as ideal a radiational cooling night with 850 mb temperatures rising to around 10C and winds staying fairly steady at around 5mph across most of the area. Additionally, a few more clouds are expected mainly north of the Thruway with a shortwave grazing the area. However, with dry air in place and high pressure sprawled over the region, another dry day is expected. Temperatures fall back into the mid 40s to lower 50s before rising into the 70s across the area Wednesday. Northwest winds increase to around 10 to 15 mph areawide, with gusts to around 20 to 25 mph.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. 400 am update .

Main concerns in the short term focused mainly on the gradually warming temperatures and the potential for patchy valley fog both Thursday and Friday mornings.

Quiet weather pattern persists through the middle of the week but we will start to see the beginnings of a pattern shift going into later in the week. Weak high pressure at the surface continues with weak cyclonic flow aloft and increasing deep moisture allowing for additional cloud cover Wed night into Thursday. This will help limit the amt of night time cooling, which would usually limit the potential for fog . with temperatures only falling into the upper 40s and lower 50s by Thur morning. However, an increase in moisture will counteract the warmer temperatures and still allow for at least some patchy valley fog in the morning.

The long wave trough over ern Canada will begin to shift to the east on Thursday as a couple, weak embedded short waves rotate ewd through the srn Ohio Valley and the mid Atlantic region . staying south of the forecast area. Will mainly be an increase in cloud cover for central NY and ne PA Thur into Thursday night.

Upper level ridging kicks in late Thursday night into Friday along with a re-emergence of the surface high which will allow for some clearing and overnight temperatures into the 40s to around 50. More valley fog possible Friday morning, with skies clearing out later in the day and temperatures back into the mid to upper 70s by the afternoon.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. 400 am update .

The shift in the large scale pattern is expected to become more evident into the weekend as high pressure over the Northeast finally breaks down and shifts to the east and a robust upper level trough deepens across the nrn Plains on Friday night, before closing off over Ontario and deepening further across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley Saturday into Sunday. The system then pushes further east into the Northeast US by Monday, which will draw up a fair amount of warm, moist air from the south ahead of it, and allow temperatures on Saturday and Sunday to climb into the 70s near 80 with dew points in the 50s and lower 60s making it feel a little humid. Rain chances will increase Saturday night, and remain in place through the day Sunday and Monday as well. This period of weather however does not appear to be a complete washout as most of the rain showers will be timed with the passage of a series of embedded short waves within the broad cyclonic flow. Temperatures will likely remain above average at least into Monday with highs back into the lower 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR conditions prevail this morning and through the rest of Tuesday with mainly clear skies. As a weak wave grazes the region tonight, a few more clouds may move into the KSYR and KRME areas, but VFR ceilings are still expected. Otherwise, the typical potential for restrictions at KELM exists tonight into early Wednesday for valley fog. With dry weather and temperatures staying more mild overnight than previous nights, only brief MVFR restrictions are expected before 12Z Wednesday.

Light and variable winds tonight will become northwesterly at 5-10 knots by late-morning. Occasional gusts up to 18 knots will be possible Tuesday afternoon, then winds fall back to around 5 to 8 kts into the evening.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Saturday . Mainly VFR. Possible valley fog at KELM during the early morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER. 4 am update . RH values this afternoon fall to around 30-35% from the Southern Tier of NY southward coupled with some northwest wind gusts of 15-20 mph especially across the higher elevations. Fuel moisture is also fairly low given this stretch of dry weather, which would contribute to any potential fire spread. Wednesday will also be breezy and sunny, but increasing dewpoints will yield RH values in the 50s during the daytime hours.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ040-044-047- 048-072. NY . Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ023-025.

SYNOPSIS . HLC NEAR TERM . HLC SHORT TERM . BJT LONG TERM . BJT AVIATION . HLC FIRE WEATHER .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 51 mi47 min 44°F 1025.4 hPa40°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi35 min WSW 4.1 G 7 47°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 60 mi47 min 44°F 1024.3 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY18 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair41°F37°F89%1025.6 hPa
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY23 mi39 minENE 510.00 miFair37°F34°F89%1026 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW35SW5SW56SW4SW65Calm4NE3CalmCalmSE6Calm3SW3W3SW3SW5SW4CalmSW5Calm
1 day agoW3Calm36--E7E5NE9N86E4NE5N5CalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmSW3CalmSW4SW5Calm
2 days agoCalm5S4NW5NW8N8NW9
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N9N4CalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW34W3CalmW4--4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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