NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
1235 PM Update...

Just some minor changes made to the forecast at this time, mainly raising dew point temperatures this afternoon as we were running a little low.

925 AM Update...

Allowed for valley fog to linger around a little longer this morning before it completely burns off. Outside of some minor sky cover tweaks, the rest of the forecast remains on track today. Did increase PoPs tomorrow evening over western portions of our area as a vigorous shortwave moves through.

345 AM Update...

High pressure will be over the region again today. Morning fog will dissipate by 10 am and give way to mostly sunny skies for this afternoon. Another warm day is expected with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Skies will gradually become partly cloudy tonight with some areas of fog forming during the early morning hours on Saturday. Lows will be in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

Saturday will finally feature a chance for showers and thunderstorms as a shortwave dives south out of Canada across Central NY Saturday afternoon. There will be some weak instability in place with up to 500 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are looking more and more likely west of the I81 corridor with a smaller chance further east. There is very little shear available, so any storms that do develop will be weak, but with PWATs approaching 1.5", a quick afternoon downpour is possible.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
350 AM Update...

A shortwave will push into the area from the west, bringing rain showers Saturday afternoon through early morning Sunday. As it travels across Central NY and NE PA, the shortwave loses energy and will seemingly taper off pretty quickly after Midnight Sunday. Best chances for rain will be west of I-81, but there are slight chances (above 20 percent) across the majority of Central NY and NE PA. With some slightly high PWATs, for this time of year, of 1 to 1.5 inches, some locally intense rainfall isn't out of the realm of possibilities. Temperatures decrease from the high 60s/low 70s Sunday to the low to mid 60s Monday, thanks to shortwave's cooler origins in Canada.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
350 AM Update...

A trough forming over the Great Lakes region heading into early next week will introduce chances for rain showers and afternoon thunderstorms pretty much every day in the long term period.
These look generally weak, with little energy likely to create anything strong or even severe. Though, we're still far out in time, and as model resolution gets better, we'll continue to monitor rain and storm potential. Temperatures will be in the low to high 60s through the week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Mostly VFR conditions expected with high pressure over the region. The only exceptions will be during the morning hours with fog developing. Fog will be a little more widespread with IFR - VLIFR restrictions most likely at ITH and ELM. However, there will also be potential for IFR fog at SYR and RME briefly this morning. Any fog will dissipate by 10 am and then mostly sunny skies are expected the remainder of the day.

Outlook

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with valley fog possible at ELM during the early morning hours. There is a low chance for showers and possible restrictions for Saturday afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...Scattered showers and potential restrictions possible as a frontal boundary approaches.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.