Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aurora, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) High pressure retreats to the east today allowing for a cold front to pass by with some showers later today and tonight.
Cooler high pressure builds in on Saturday with breezy conditions and potential fire weather concerns.

2) A warming trend with some unsettled weather occurs much of next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Isolated showers will pass through the Finger Lakes region prior to sunrise, then a more significant cold front is still on track to move through the area later this afternoon with highest rain chances beginning about 3 PM over the western and northern counties to around 5 PM for the Twin Tiers and after about 7 PM in the Poconos.
There's good agreement that the front and associated showers clear the region between midnight and 2 AM. Ahead of the front, temperatures should surge again into the 60s to around 70. High pressure builds in for Saturday with a cooler airmass settling in with afternoon highs about 20 degrees colder than Friday. Although NW winds will likely gust up to around 25 mph on Saturday, the cooler air will limit mixing out of the relative humidity and that fire weather factor should remain above critical thresholds. Fine fuels should also pick up a little moisture from the prior day's rain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure again slides off to the east on Sunday setting the stage for warmer return flow to set up for much of the upcoming week. Deterministic models and ensemble suites agree on a broad zonal solution with a primary frontal system poised just to our north across lower Ontario. Some initial passing warm fronts on Sunday and Monday may bring showers mainly for CNY and concentrated for our northern and western counties...and then the details and timing of weak upper waves in the flow becomes highly uncertain through Wednesday. Will continue a gradient of PoPs for showers favoring mainly CNY with lesser probability for rain over NEPA.
Temperatures are expected to be very spring-like, bordering on summer with 70s and possibly near 80 a good bet for Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday is up in the air with the GFS and supporting AI runs suggest a faster frontal passage than other models. Most are lacking in overall QPF, but the EC and GGEM are slightly wetter.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through at least 18Z at all terminals. ELM has some LLWS tonight as winds have gone calm, and winds at 2K to 3K feet are around 30 knots. All other terminals have at least some wind so the difference is closer to 20 knots.

Tomorrow, a front moves in late in the day with rain moving into ITH, SYR, and RME between 19Z and 21Z, then 21Z to 0Z at BGM and ELM, and not till after 0Z at AVP. Cigs fall to low end MVFR and potentially IFR as the rain moves through, especially at ITH and BGM, being at higher elevation.

Behind the front and rain showers, MVFR cigs stick around through at least 6Z tonight.

Outlook:

Friday night...A front continues to move through the region with rain and restrictions.

Saturday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Chances for showers, afternoon thunderstorms, and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.