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LCZ423 851 Pm Edt Wed Sep 6 2023
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters...
the areas affected include...
detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie...
at 848 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm west of lake erie metropark harbor to 8 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to near luna pier, moving northeast at 20 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near, Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, woodland beach, and detroit beach around 855 pm edt. Stony point around 900 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor, estral beach, and gibraltar around 910 pm edt. Detroit river light around 915 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina and wyandotte around 920 pm edt. Grosse ile around 925 pm edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive.
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lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8294 4235 8293 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 041740 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1240 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Lingering low-level wrap around moisture from a departing low is supporting scattered showers early this morning for areas south of a line from Holland to Lansing. These showers should gradually diminish throughout the morning as the moisture source from the parent low slowly moves further east. Dry conditions are expected by noon with brief ridging.

Another quick clipper arrives late tonight into Tuesday morning bringing precipitation for the southern half of the state. Highest precipitation chances will be for areas along and south of I-96.
Forecast soundings continue to support snow for this system, though above freezing surface temperatures and light QPF under 0.1 inches will limit accumulations to less than 1 inch.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Some lingering light snow/rain is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in the wake of the departing clipper system, related to moist/cyclonic NNW flow. Pops will be confined to areas mainly near and west of Highway 131 as this is primary driven by lake effect/enhancement. With the DGZ likely becoming unsaturated after 06Z Wed this could be more like a lake effect drizzle situation before the sfc ridge arrives Wednesday afternoon.

An abrupt pattern flip arrives later Wednesday into Thursday as the wrn upper ridge marches east and replaces our departing longwave trough. Strong southwest flow sends a warm front through the region early Thursday, which could produce a brief bout of light snow/rain on Wednesday night mainly north of I-96.

Predominately dry weather with well above normal temperatures is expected to prevail on Thursday and Friday before the upper ridge gets flattened by new energy streaming in from the Pacific and crossing the Rockies. High temperatures rise well into the 40s on Thursday then into the 50s on Friday before a frontal boundary leans in from the west on Saturday.

Precipitation chances increase next weekend as a longwave trough digs over the central U.S. and a slow moving/stalled baroclinic zone sets up from MI to TX. Deterministic and ensemble guidance is suggesting that a strong cyclone could develop along that baroclinic zone and sweep through the GrtLks Rgn at some point late in the weekend. As is typical that far out though there is considerable spread with respect to sfc low track/timing/strength as well as potential p-types/amounts.

Needless to say this will need watched because if we end up on the cold side of that potential strong system there may be significant snow accumulations while being on its warm side could support locally heavy rainfall and perhaps some strong tstms.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Terminals are mainly MVFR this afternoon with some breaks to VFR expected, especially this evening. Light snow moves in overnight with mainly MVFR cigs expected through 12z, with minimal impacts to visbys through 12z as snow is light. Low level moisture increases after 12-15z Tuesday with winds turning south- southeasterly to easterly. This causes cigs and visbys to deteriorate to IFR at most sites through the end of the TAF window, with LAN being the main potential exception,as being on the far edge of any precipitation keeps IFR chances lower but still existent.

MARINE
Issued at 325 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Marine conditions will stay quiet through the next couple of days, then conditions deteriorate Wednesday night with strong southwest winds. Gales will be possible Wednesday into Thursday with waves building to 6 to 9 feet.



GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...None.

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