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LCZ423 851 Pm Edt Wed Sep 6 2023
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters...
the areas affected include...
detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie...
at 848 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm west of lake erie metropark harbor to 8 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to near luna pier, moving northeast at 20 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near, Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, woodland beach, and detroit beach around 855 pm edt. Stony point around 900 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor, estral beach, and gibraltar around 910 pm edt. Detroit river light around 915 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina and wyandotte around 920 pm edt. Grosse ile around 925 pm edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive.
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lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8294 4235 8293 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 040531 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1231 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

UPDATE
Issued at 915 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Surface vorticity and convergence continue the rain showers along and south of a Muskegon to Grand Rapids to Lansing line. These showers will shift south after midnight and focus along the I-94 corridor until Monday morning.

Meanwhile light snow remains possible across the northern counties before clearing after midnight.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 146 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

- Diminishing Rain and Snow This Afternoon/Evening

The area of low pressure over Southern Lower MI will pull off to the east tonight. This system will take the deeper moisture with it. By 00z the DGZ is shown to become unsaturated here in Grand Rapids so we will feature only chance POPs by then. This is supported by the 12z ensemble qpf forecasts which indicate very little potential for measurable qpf after 00z. With temperatures remaining above freezing to start the evening, the potential for impacts is low. We do fall below freezing overnight so there could be a few icy spots on untreated surfaces then.

- Potential for light snow moving in later Monday night

Ridging will be place to start Monday night, but height falls occur as this feature shifts east of the area and the next shortwave approaches from the west. As this next wave nears the area, the moisture deepens up prior to daybreak. Forecast soundings support mainly snow and surface temperatures will be below freezing. Thus we will need to monitor the potential for impacts then.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

West Michigan has multiple chances for precipitation in the coming days with temperatures warming to above normal by the end of the work week.

- Light Snow Tuesday/Tuesday Night

A shortwave and surface low tracking south of Michigan will bring precipitation mainly near and south of I96 Tuesday. With the freezing level under 1000 ft across southern Michigan, snow is the dominant precipitation type, though some rain could mix in near the lakeshore. Accumulations will be light since the northern origin of the system limits moisture, keeping QPF under 0.1 inches.

Light snow/mixed precipitation could linger Tuesday night into early Wednesday. This is due to Cyclonic flow under continued troughing paired with cold air advection (850 mb temps fall to near -7C)
leading to lake effect precipitation.

-Warmup late week

Longwave ridging moves into the region starting Wednesday as the upper-level troughing departs to the east. Warm air advection brings the potential for light rain/snow Wednesday night before dry conditions under surface and upper-level ridging Thursday. Warm air advection then sends temperatures climbing for the end of the week with highs at least in the 40s Thursday through Saturday. Highs could even reach the 50s Sunday, especially across the southern CWA.

This is dependent on the strength of the ridge which is still in question between different guidance. According to WPC cluster analysis, the ECMWF/EPS solution and many of the CMC members favor stronger ridging and warmer temperatures Friday while the GFS/GEFS and a subset of the CMC keep ridging weaker and cooler temperatures.

-Rain chances increase Friday into the Weekend

Longwave troughing then amplifies over the plains late this week causing rain chances to increase. There is question of when this occurs with the same subset that favored weaker ridging (GFS/GEFS/some CMC) bringing in earlier troughing and rainfall with the EPS/ECMWF and the rest of the CMC keeping ridging longer and rainfall later. NBM PoPs capture this well with PoPs under 30 percent through the day Friday increasing to 50-60 percent Saturday into Sunday.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Mainly MVFR though some IFR ceilings remain across the area this morning. Some light precipitation continues across far southwestern lower Michigan resulting in occasional rain for AZO, BTL, and GRR. This precipitation should end during the morning hours though persistent MVFR cloud cover will remain. Ceilings may begin to lift into VFR just beyond the forecast period, then another clipper system will bring renewed IFR across the area after 12z Tuesday.

MARINE
Issued at 915 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

West to northwest winds have been hitting Small Craft Advisory criteria at times from south haven and southward. These gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours but should weaken with the pressure gradient overnight. Northwest winds are expected to continue through Monday before turning to the southwest Monday night.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...None.

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