Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 7:32 PM   Moonset 5:26 AM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 230801 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 401 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers Early this Morning; Marginal Severe Risk Expanded

- Frost/Freeze Risk Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning

- Warmer and unsettled weather moves in for the weekend

DISCUSSION
Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

- Showers Early this Morning; Marginal Severe Risk Expanded

Showers out ahead of the incoming short wave will continue to spread over the region early this morning. The dry air at the surface delayed the onset of precipitation, however scattered showers continue to spread over the region and will continue through the first half of the morning. Coinciding with this short wave will be a strong low level jet. Winds upwards of 35 mph will be possible through the early morning hours. The 925 mb winds should become more amplified with more directional shear from the 850 and 700 mb layers. Looking at BUFKIT soundings CAMS have a weak capping inversion from 2,500 to 4KFT this afternoon. If this is breached, the steep low to mid level lapse rates of 7 to 9 C/KM should greatly aid in convection.

Couple those lapse rates, the strong shear from the LLJ and the cold air aloft and there is a decent chance for severe hail.
Latest mesoscale analysis has decent DCAPE moving into the region.
Given that, SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe storms for across the region this afternoon. Timing wise, latest CAMS brings the best opportunity for strongest convection will be late in the day associated with the cold front, around 00Z. A secondary LLJ is associated with that boundary as well, though it is weaker then the one moving through this morning.

- Frost/Freeze Risk Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning

Clearing skies under surface high pressure and very dry air at the lower levels will create favorable conditions for radiational cooling Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures will likely drop into the upper 20s across a wide swath of southern Lower Michigan. The coldest temperatures will probably in the northeast counties where mid 20s can't be ruled out. The good news is that the trend of a slightly warmer airmass at 850 mb continues with recent model runs.

- Warmer and unsettled weather moves in for the weekend

As this final blast of cold air departs the area, a reorientation of the longwave pattern will move into the central CONUS, setting Michigan up initially on the "sunny" side of a building upper ridge, but by Friday afternoon the ridge axis will have passed us and we'll fall into several days of deep southwesterly flow.

This pattern will allow much warmer and more humid air to stream into our state, along with fairly plentiful cloudiness. At least 2 major disturbances/shortwaves will move through this southwest flow, and bring rounds of rain and possibly storms beginning Friday night and continuing all weekend. It's unlikely the whole weekend will be a washout, but the exact timing and placement of these shortwaves are still pretty uncertain at this time, so some of the more pertinent forecast details remain elusive. Instability and the risk of possible severe weather will be monitored over the coming days, as breaks of sunshine during the day followed by one of these shortwaves coming through near peak heating could easily result in a severe threat.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 137 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A first batch of showers is moving onshore from Lake Michigan and will move west to east across the area during the rest of the overnight period. No thunder is expected in this batch, but gusty winds are picking up associated with the arrival of the showers, and even strong winds a few thousand feet above ground will produce some wind shear conditions through 12z or so. VFR conditions will continue throughout most of the day Tuesday, although mid-level ceilings will linger for most of the day.
Additional showers and a few thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon hours and move through Lower Michigan ahead of a cold front that finally comes through Tuesday evening and switches winds back to a northwesterly direction.

MARINE
Issued at 403 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

An active/hazardous period on Lake Michigan will continue through Wednesday. Gusty winds will continue with southerly flow this morning. Winds will briefly slacken over the lake this afternoon.
However winds will shift to the north to 30 kts behind the front tonight into Wednesday. Though the small craft remains, there is still a chance for brief periods of gales. Hazardous winds and waves should subside Wednesday night into Thursday as a sfc ridge builds overhead

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849.

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