Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Ledge, MI

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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 262032 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 332 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

- Clearing skies tonight for most areas . turning colder

- Some lake effect snow late tonight and Wednesday

- Period of quiet weather latter half of work week

- Questions remain with weekend system

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

-- Clearing skies tonight for most areas . turning colder --

Will be dropping the Winter Weather Advisory headline with this issuance as snow is tapering off and road conditions on the MIdrive page are mostly green.

Northerly winds behind the departing system will open holes in the overcast this evening. This occurs for two reasons, one it is a downsloping flow off the higher ground of Northern Lower Michigan and two it is just a greater distance from the water of the Great Lakes for lake cloud production. Skies will for the most part become mostly clear in many areas. We have gone colder than forecast temperature guidance at this point and could see readings going even colder than what we have in the forecast. We have gone lower teens in many areas and would not rule out some single digits given a fresh snow pack leading to decent radiational cooling conditions. The couple of negatives for ideal radiational cooling will be winds that try to hang on aloft a decent portion of the night. 20 knot winds stay in place all the way to near 100am. 10-15 knot winds are still in place the rest of the night. Also, it looks like at least some lake effect stratocumulus will try to remain in place across Central Lower Michigan tonight in northerly flow off of Northern Lake Michigan.

-- Some lake effect snow late tonight and Wednesday --

Some light lake effect snow will mainly affect Big and Little Sable Points late tonight and into Wednesday. Delta T's are fairly substantial in the middle to upper teens. Winds will be shifting slowly from north-northeast to more of a north flow. This is not an ideal setup with the flow wavering between slightly off shore and due north. Also, moisture is quite shallow. Expecting some snow shower activity though. Any accumulation will be on the light side (trace amounts to maybe an inch).

-- Period of quiet weather latter half of work week --

A period of quiet weather is expected from later Wednesday night through at least Saturday morning. High pressure will be in place the bulk of the time both at the surface and aloft. Temperatures will be slightly below normal during the later half of the week, but moderate more towards normal this weekend.

-- Questions remain with weekend system --

Ensembles from both the GFS and the ECWMF show a low moving through portions of the Ohio Valley this weekend. The GFS is further north and would give us more in the way of precipitation, while the ECMWF is a bit further to the south, which would keep a good deal of the precipitation off to the south of the state of Michigan. The GFS would clearly bring much of the area accumulating system snow, while the ECMWF would be a much drier system for us (possibly even missing us to the south). Confidence is on the low side at this point with this system given model disparity and overall, a weak looking open upper wave. It will be interesting to watch model trends over the next couple days to see what direction this system trends.

Beyond the potential weekend system, ridging builds back into the area for early next week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1242 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

The first few hours will be the most impactful to aviation interests, before conditions improve this evening and overnight.

The last batch of snow is moving in from the West as of 1745z this afternoon. This snow will drop conditions to LIFR with visibilities likely dropping to below 1sm. This is expected to impact all of the terminals. This will then start to clear out from West to East after 20z, reaching KLAN and KJXN toward 00z.

MVFR conditions will hold in for a bit, with conditions likely going VFR overnight at all sites. In fact, we believe all of the inland sites will partially clear, with KMKG keeping clouds being closer to lake effect.

It does look like some MVFR ceilings may redevelop toward the end of the period for all sites except KLAN and KJXN.

MARINE. Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

We have extended the Small Craft Advisory through 700am on Thursday as there will be multiple periods of higher waves through that time. Waves the bulk of the time through Thursday morning will be at or above SCA criteria. Northerly winds will dominate through that time. High pressure builds in after 700am on Thursday which will lead to quiet conditions on the big lake for Thursday and Friday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None.

LM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . Duke DISCUSSION . Duke AVIATION . NJJ MARINE . Duke

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI	78 mi	49 min	N 11 G 16	29°F	32°F		1011.6 hPa (+2.0)	26°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI	90 mi	29 min	NE 15 G 17	29°F			1015.1 hPa	22°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	91 mi	49 min	N 28 G 31	27°F			1009.8 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI	8 mi	56 min	N 10 G 20	0.75 mi	Light Snow Fog/Mist	29°F	27°F	92%	1010.7 hPa
Charlotte, Fitch H Beach Airport, MI	13 mi	54 min	N 8	3.00 mi	Light Snow	30°F	28°F	90%	1008.8 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI	21 mi	54 min	N 4	1.75 mi	Light Snow	30°F	28°F	92%	1008.8 hPa
Ionia County Airport, MI	21 mi	72 min	N 14 G 20	0.75 mi	Light Snow	28°F	25°F	86%	1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLAN

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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