Tuesday, January26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Ledge, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:56AMSunset 5:45PM Tuesday January 26, 2021 3:49 PM EST (20:49 UTC) Moonrise 3:33PMMoonset 6:34AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1105 Am Est Tue Jan 26 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm est this evening...
Rest of today..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots backing northwest 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..East winds around 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ845 Expires:202101262200;;525767 FZUS53 KGRR 261606 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1105 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-262200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Ledge, MI
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location: 42.75, -84.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 262032 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 332 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

- Clearing skies tonight for most areas . turning colder

- Some lake effect snow late tonight and Wednesday

- Period of quiet weather latter half of work week

- Questions remain with weekend system

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

-- Clearing skies tonight for most areas . turning colder --

Will be dropping the Winter Weather Advisory headline with this issuance as snow is tapering off and road conditions on the MIdrive page are mostly green.

Northerly winds behind the departing system will open holes in the overcast this evening. This occurs for two reasons, one it is a downsloping flow off the higher ground of Northern Lower Michigan and two it is just a greater distance from the water of the Great Lakes for lake cloud production. Skies will for the most part become mostly clear in many areas. We have gone colder than forecast temperature guidance at this point and could see readings going even colder than what we have in the forecast. We have gone lower teens in many areas and would not rule out some single digits given a fresh snow pack leading to decent radiational cooling conditions. The couple of negatives for ideal radiational cooling will be winds that try to hang on aloft a decent portion of the night. 20 knot winds stay in place all the way to near 100am. 10-15 knot winds are still in place the rest of the night. Also, it looks like at least some lake effect stratocumulus will try to remain in place across Central Lower Michigan tonight in northerly flow off of Northern Lake Michigan.

-- Some lake effect snow late tonight and Wednesday --

Some light lake effect snow will mainly affect Big and Little Sable Points late tonight and into Wednesday. Delta T's are fairly substantial in the middle to upper teens. Winds will be shifting slowly from north-northeast to more of a north flow. This is not an ideal setup with the flow wavering between slightly off shore and due north. Also, moisture is quite shallow. Expecting some snow shower activity though. Any accumulation will be on the light side (trace amounts to maybe an inch).

-- Period of quiet weather latter half of work week --

A period of quiet weather is expected from later Wednesday night through at least Saturday morning. High pressure will be in place the bulk of the time both at the surface and aloft. Temperatures will be slightly below normal during the later half of the week, but moderate more towards normal this weekend.

-- Questions remain with weekend system --

Ensembles from both the GFS and the ECWMF show a low moving through portions of the Ohio Valley this weekend. The GFS is further north and would give us more in the way of precipitation, while the ECMWF is a bit further to the south, which would keep a good deal of the precipitation off to the south of the state of Michigan. The GFS would clearly bring much of the area accumulating system snow, while the ECMWF would be a much drier system for us (possibly even missing us to the south). Confidence is on the low side at this point with this system given model disparity and overall, a weak looking open upper wave. It will be interesting to watch model trends over the next couple days to see what direction this system trends.

Beyond the potential weekend system, ridging builds back into the area for early next week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1242 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

The first few hours will be the most impactful to aviation interests, before conditions improve this evening and overnight.

The last batch of snow is moving in from the West as of 1745z this afternoon. This snow will drop conditions to LIFR with visibilities likely dropping to below 1sm. This is expected to impact all of the terminals. This will then start to clear out from West to East after 20z, reaching KLAN and KJXN toward 00z.

MVFR conditions will hold in for a bit, with conditions likely going VFR overnight at all sites. In fact, we believe all of the inland sites will partially clear, with KMKG keeping clouds being closer to lake effect.

It does look like some MVFR ceilings may redevelop toward the end of the period for all sites except KLAN and KJXN.

MARINE. Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

We have extended the Small Craft Advisory through 700am on Thursday as there will be multiple periods of higher waves through that time. Waves the bulk of the time through Thursday morning will be at or above SCA criteria. Northerly winds will dominate through that time. High pressure builds in after 700am on Thursday which will lead to quiet conditions on the big lake for Thursday and Friday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None.

LM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . Duke DISCUSSION . Duke AVIATION . NJJ MARINE . Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 78 mi49 min N 11 G 16 29°F 32°F1011.6 hPa (+2.0)26°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 90 mi29 min NE 15 G 17 29°F 1015.1 hPa22°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 91 mi49 min N 28 G 31 27°F 1009.8 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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NE10
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G24
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI8 mi56 minN 10 G 200.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist29°F27°F92%1010.7 hPa
Charlotte, Fitch H Beach Airport, MI13 mi54 minN 83.00 miLight Snow30°F28°F90%1008.8 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI21 mi54 minN 41.75 miLight Snow30°F28°F92%1008.8 hPa
Ionia County Airport, MI21 mi72 minN 14 G 200.75 miLight Snow28°F25°F86%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLAN

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11NE8NE7NE7NE9NE11NE13--NE9NE11NE11NE10NE11
G19
NE12NE14NE12NE10N12NE13
G21
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G24
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G20
1 day agoSE7SE6SE4SE6SE5CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE4NE5NE5NE8N9
2 days agoSW7W8SW5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE4SE4E4SE4S6SE8S7SE13SE10SE13SE9SE9SE10SE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.