Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Ledge, MI

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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 240947 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 447 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

- Friday morning mix, daytime rain, possibly evening snow

- Cloudy weekend with lingering light precipitation

- Relatively quiet but cloudy weather early next week

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Thursday) Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

-- Friday morning mix, daytime rain, possibly evening snow --

This is not an easy low-pressure system to forecast, with irregular precipitation rates and low level wet-bulb temperatures on the fence between supporting rain vs snow. What is relatively good confidence based on agreement of the model suite: After this 0.1 inch rain/snow mix dissipates around daybreak, there should be a several hour lull in precip, followed by about 0.3 to 0.5 inches of precip between late morning and midnight.

We are also fairly confident most of this will be rain, with some exceptions: Midday mix may linger in central Michigan, and a changeover to snow during the evening is possible especially north/west of Holland, Grand Rapids, and Mount Pleasant. There is moderate disagreement in the mesoscale models regarding the temperatures of the lowest 4000 feet, with the NAM3 and WRF-NMM being the colder solutions. We'll speculate that this may be due to differences in how the model physics handle precip rates in the snow melting layer and its feedback into cooling off temperatures. What may also be helping the cause for snow in the northwest would be the ceasing of warm-air advection during the evening as the 850 low will be centered over Lake Michigan. So we can't rule out wet snow accumulations of an inch or less this evening in central/west-central Michigan.

-- Cloudy weekend with lingering light precipitation --

The surface low will be right over Lower Michigan on Saturday and will be in the process of filling in and propagating northeast. There may be drizzle for part of the day, but also there is some concern for fog as winds go light with moist low- level air and some remaining snowpack in place. There is also a chance of wrap- around moisture providing light snow to southern Michigan during the afternoon. For Sunday, there may be enough low-level moisture and lift from disorganized shortwaves to produce drizzle or light snow, but amounts would be very light.

-- Relatively quiet but cloudy weather early next week --

Ensembles are painting mostly cloudy and fairly quiet week, with only occasional chances for minor precipitation amounts. The chance of precipitation may increase later in the week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 447 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

I have delayed the start of the lower ceiling and visibilities in our current set of TAFs

It would seem the persistent low level east winds have brought in enough low level dry air to prevent the large scale MVFR /IFR ceilings from moving in as we had expected. Based on the 08z run of the HRRR it would seem we will need that band of rain south of I-80 (at 0930z) to move north into our CWA to really bring in the lower clouds and more persistent rain. The heaviest rain now seems to want to be in the I-69 area this afternoon so I have moderate rain at JXN for several hours. This idea is consistent with the 1000/850 moisture transport vectors and matches several runs of the HRRR in a row for where the heaviest rainfall is expected in the next 18hrs.


MARINE. Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

Waves will stay below small craft advisory levels through at least Saturday. East winds today may be pretty gusty.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

The localized ice jam on the Kalamazoo River in Comstock remains in place but water levels have slowly fallen. Additional changes in water level are possible. Elsewhere, rivers are steadily declining and mild temperatures through the weekend will ensure no new river ice is produced.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . CAS DISCUSSION . CAS AVIATION . WDM HYDROLOGY . Hoving MARINE . CAS

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI	78 mi	53 min	E 13 G 16	36°F	33°F		1012.4 hPa	35°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI	90 mi	27 min	ESE 13 G 20	35°F			1015.1 hPa	33°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	91 mi	77 min	ENE 9.9 G 12	33°F			1017.9 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Holland, MI

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SE7

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W14 G17

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SW11 G16

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SW14 G18

SW17 G21

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S23 G28

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI	8 mi	24 min	E 9	3.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	34°F	32°F	92%	1015.9 hPa
Charlotte, Fitch H Beach Airport, MI	13 mi	21 min	E 6	4.00 mi	Snow	35°F	32°F	91%	1013.9 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI	21 mi	22 min	E 7	4.00 mi	Light Rain	34°F	32°F	92%	1014.6 hPa
Ionia County Airport, MI	21 mi	27 min	ENE 7	3.00 mi	Light Rain	34°F	32°F	93%	1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLAN

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)

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S13 G19

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (11,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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