Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Ledge, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:42PM Friday January 24, 2020 11:16 AM EST (16:16 UTC) Moonrise 8:04AMMoonset 5:30PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1105 Am Est Fri Jan 24 2020
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers. Patchy fog. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots veering south after midnight. Rain showers and areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots veering west late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers and areas of drizzle. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing west, then veering northwest late in the day. Cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ845 Expires:202001242200;;447761 FZUS53 KGRR 241605 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1105 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-242200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Ledge, MI
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location: 42.75, -84.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 240947 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 447 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

- Friday morning mix, daytime rain, possibly evening snow

- Cloudy weekend with lingering light precipitation

- Relatively quiet but cloudy weather early next week

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Thursday) Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

-- Friday morning mix, daytime rain, possibly evening snow --

This is not an easy low-pressure system to forecast, with irregular precipitation rates and low level wet-bulb temperatures on the fence between supporting rain vs snow. What is relatively good confidence based on agreement of the model suite: After this 0.1 inch rain/snow mix dissipates around daybreak, there should be a several hour lull in precip, followed by about 0.3 to 0.5 inches of precip between late morning and midnight.

We are also fairly confident most of this will be rain, with some exceptions: Midday mix may linger in central Michigan, and a changeover to snow during the evening is possible especially north/west of Holland, Grand Rapids, and Mount Pleasant. There is moderate disagreement in the mesoscale models regarding the temperatures of the lowest 4000 feet, with the NAM3 and WRF-NMM being the colder solutions. We'll speculate that this may be due to differences in how the model physics handle precip rates in the snow melting layer and its feedback into cooling off temperatures. What may also be helping the cause for snow in the northwest would be the ceasing of warm-air advection during the evening as the 850 low will be centered over Lake Michigan. So we can't rule out wet snow accumulations of an inch or less this evening in central/west-central Michigan.

-- Cloudy weekend with lingering light precipitation --

The surface low will be right over Lower Michigan on Saturday and will be in the process of filling in and propagating northeast. There may be drizzle for part of the day, but also there is some concern for fog as winds go light with moist low- level air and some remaining snowpack in place. There is also a chance of wrap- around moisture providing light snow to southern Michigan during the afternoon. For Sunday, there may be enough low-level moisture and lift from disorganized shortwaves to produce drizzle or light snow, but amounts would be very light.

-- Relatively quiet but cloudy weather early next week --

Ensembles are painting mostly cloudy and fairly quiet week, with only occasional chances for minor precipitation amounts. The chance of precipitation may increase later in the week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 447 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

I have delayed the start of the lower ceiling and visibilities in our current set of TAFs

It would seem the persistent low level east winds have brought in enough low level dry air to prevent the large scale MVFR /IFR ceilings from moving in as we had expected. Based on the 08z run of the HRRR it would seem we will need that band of rain south of I-80 (at 0930z) to move north into our CWA to really bring in the lower clouds and more persistent rain. The heaviest rain now seems to want to be in the I-69 area this afternoon so I have moderate rain at JXN for several hours. This idea is consistent with the 1000/850 moisture transport vectors and matches several runs of the HRRR in a row for where the heaviest rainfall is expected in the next 18hrs.


MARINE. Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

Waves will stay below small craft advisory levels through at least Saturday. East winds today may be pretty gusty.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

The localized ice jam on the Kalamazoo River in Comstock remains in place but water levels have slowly fallen. Additional changes in water level are possible. Elsewhere, rivers are steadily declining and mild temperatures through the weekend will ensure no new river ice is produced.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . CAS DISCUSSION . CAS AVIATION . WDM HYDROLOGY . Hoving MARINE . CAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 78 mi53 min E 13 G 16 36°F 33°F1012.4 hPa35°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 90 mi27 min ESE 13 G 20 35°F 1015.1 hPa33°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 91 mi77 min ENE 9.9 G 12 33°F 1017.9 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI8 mi24 minE 93.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist34°F32°F92%1015.9 hPa
Charlotte, Fitch H Beach Airport, MI13 mi21 minE 64.00 miSnow35°F32°F91%1013.9 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI21 mi22 minE 74.00 miLight Rain34°F32°F92%1014.6 hPa
Ionia County Airport, MI21 mi27 minENE 73.00 miLight Rain34°F32°F93%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLAN

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE6SE4S7S4CalmSE4SE7SE9SE7E8E6SE7SE8SE9E8E8E8E9E7E8E11E9E9
1 day agoSW12SW12S13SW13S10S10S10S7S9S9S11S9S7S4S7S7S7S6S6S7S6SE4S7S8
2 days agoW9W11W13W15W13W10SW6SW8SW6S6S7S8SW8S8SW9SW10S9SW8SW8S11S9S13
G19
SW12SW12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.