Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Ledge, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 9:15PM Thursday July 16, 2020 8:39 AM EDT (12:39 UTC) Moonrise 1:49AMMoonset 4:44PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 805 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers until midday, then mostly Sunny in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing southwest after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ845 Expires:202007162000;;933642 FZUS53 KGRR 161205 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 805 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-162000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Ledge, MI
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location: 42.75, -84.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 161020 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 620 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 322 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

- Rain into mid morning then partial clearing

- Pleasant Friday with considerable sunshine

- Warm and humid weekend thunderstorms more so Sunday

- Could be warm and wet next week but not hot

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Wednesday) Issued at 322 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

-- Rain into mid morning then partial clearing --

As we expected the southern stream shortwave developed a surface low that has brought rain to most of our southern and central CWA this morning. The system is in the jet entrance region of a departing northern stream shortwave. It has been tracking largely to the east near I-80 and it should continue to do so. What will slow the end of the rain down is there is an upstream shortwave digging into the large scale trough at upper levels over our area. That will help to keep deformation rain going into mid morning over a good part of the area. Once the trailing shortwaves clears the area later this afternoon we should see clearing skies.

Rainfall amounts have mostly been in the .2 to .3 inch range so far near and south of I-96. We could get another .25 inches or so from this event. That sort of rainfall would not result in any flooding issues.

Since there is a considerable amount of clouds associated with this system and it will take to later in the day for the skies to start to clear it now seems we will not develop enough surface based instability for afternoon thunderstorms. This idea is supported by the SPC SREF which has a less than 5 percent chance of thunderstorms this afternoon over any part of our CWA.

--Pleasant Friday with considerable sunshine--

Once this current system moves east we get shortwave ridging at mid and upper levels for Friday. That should mean a sunny day with light winds and warm afternoon temperatures. There is a fairly strong subsidence inversion around 2000 to 3000 ft, so that should help limit how warm it gets and also keep afternoon convection from developing and keep the high temperatures limited to the mid 80s.

-- Warm and humid weekend thunderstorms more so Sunday--

The next upstream Pacific system is just now coming onshore over western Canada and by the states of Washington and Oregon. This system merges into the longwave trough over the Great Lakes and the eastern 1/2 of Canada over the weekend. The polar jet does sage south into Michigan by midday Sunday. Once there a series of weaker Pacific shortwaves keep Michigan more or less in the entrance region of the polar jet into mid week.

What this means for us is a surge of hot air on Saturday. Model thickness, and the 1000 mb, 925 mb and 850 mb temperatures all suggest highs in the mid 90s Saturday. Because of the approaching cold front Saturday we should not have a strong subsidence inversion so Saturday may well be the hottest day of the month if we can keep the clouds away long enough.

-- Could be warm and wet next week but not hot--

The way this system comes in over the weekend it would seem to me the associated convection will not move into our area till late Saturday night or Sunday. Since we stay for the most part in the jet entrance region into Wednesday do not be surprised if our forecast trends wetter early next week. The front will stall near us. Being on the north side of the front will keep our highs in the 80s but being so close to the front I would expect periods of thunderstorm into Wednesday. After that it seem some sort of ridging tries to move back into this area and if that happens the heat comes back and we dry out.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 616 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Low pressure in NW Indiana will slowly move east today and take the extensive cloud shield with it. Radar currently shows light rain at a few of the terminals, but there's been a decrease in echos over the last few hours. We'll see the rain end this morning. the clearing line has made it to Manistee and will coninue to slowly move east. Current IFR/MVFR will continue through the morning before improving to VFR this afternoon from west to east.

MARINE. Issued at 322 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

The surge of warm air on Saturday may be strong enough that we would need a small craft advisory and likely beach hazard statements.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . WDM DISCUSSION . WDM AVIATION . 04 MARINE . WDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 78 mi70 min 63°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 90 mi30 min E 6 G 8.9 69°F 1014.1 hPa66°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 91 mi40 min ENE 17 G 19 69°F 1014.2 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI8 mi47 minENE 85.00 miFog/Mist68°F66°F93%1013.3 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI21 mi45 minENE 54.00 miLight Drizzle68°F68°F100%1013.5 hPa
Ionia County Airport, MI21 mi45 minNNE 810.00 miOvercast66°F63°F93%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLAN

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S7S9S9SW8S8S12
G17
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S8SE3SE8S9SE9SE5CalmN5N5NE7E5NE7NE8
1 day agoCalm3Calm4W5S46SW8S10
G16
S8S8S5S7SE5SE6S3S7S7S7S7S8S6S6S4
2 days agoN4NW54NW7N74CalmNE4NW7N5NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmSW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.