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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1105 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm est this evening...
Rest of today..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots veering northeast 5 to 15 knots after midnight. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet toward daybreak.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain and a slight chance of snow. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots veering southwest. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 301223 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 723 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 344 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Few icy spots may be possible this morning as patchy fog moves through areas mainly along and north of I-96. Road temps are currently in the upper 20s with air temps right around freezing. An SPS may be warranted to highlight potential hazardous driving conditions for the morning commute due to black ice.

Zonal flow dominates the regime over the eastern CONUS today supporting decent warm air advection with 850mb temps climbing towards +3C to +4C. This will bring high temperatures back into the 40s today. In addition to warmer temps, winds will be breezy as a 45- 50 knot LLJ sets up overhead. Inversion heights up towards 1-2kft will support gusts to 25-35mph mixing down to the surface this afternoon.

Bigger area of focus for the forecast will be on a system that will move through the area late tonight through Friday. In this event, a shortwave will track northeasterly from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley/southern Michigan. This system still looks likely to produce a mix of rain and snow with the rain/snow mix arriving near I-94 after midnight, then towards the I-96 corridor after 7am Friday producing mainly snow. Model guidance continues to highlight the higher swath of 1-3 inches of snow occuring within the I-96 to M-46 corridor, but with many varying thermodynamic parts in play it's possible this band of snow could be much more narrow. Possible mesoscale banding will support higher snow rates at times Friday morning which may allow some accumulation on area roads. Hazardous travel will be possible for the Friday morning commute.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

The front remains nearly stationary over the MI/IN/OH state line area for Friday night with a second upper shortwave sliding through aloft. Weak persistent isentropic upglide will continue much of Friday night, so we expect precipitation to continue Friday night with a rain/snow mix north of I-96 and rain off to the south. There is potential for a wet 1-2 inch snow fall over portions of the central and northern CWA. Location of the front and exactly what the low level thermal profile are like will dictate location and amounts. At this point though it looks like north of I-96 and on the order of around an inch potentially.

Precipitation tapers off on Saturday, but does not completely end as we move through the weekend given an upper trough and shortwaves moving through the region. We have higher pops into Sunday as our model blend is likely leaning a bit on the GFS which has a surface low moving directly through the CWA. The ECMWF is further east with the low development. Rain and snow are in the forecast over the weekend with critical temperatures near thresholds for both ptypes.

As we head through the early to middle portion of next week, conditions become a bit quieter as northwest flow trends towards ridging. One final low may move through the region in the Tuesday time frame though and we have 20-40 pct pops in the forecast for both rain and snow.

Temperatures through the period will be near normals and also conducive for a mixture of precipitation types (Rain/Snow).

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 724 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

VFR conditions are in place at most TAF sites at 12z, the exception being MKG where some fog is occurring. Any fog should lift quickly this morning with VFR prevailing by 15z at the latest. Clouds will lower and thicken this evening into the overnight hours with low ceilings developing. MVFR ceilings will develop around 00z this evening and lower to IFR and LIFR beginning around 05z. Some precipitation will spread into southern TAF sites (AZO, BTL and JXN) after 09z. A mix of rain and snow is possible.

MARINE
Issued at 344 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Small Craft Advisory will continue. Waves will increase today with strong southwesterly winds building towards 20-25 knots, gusting to 30 knots this afternoon. Into this evening winds will shift northerly and waves will quickly fall to 1 to 2 feet late tonight into Friday morning.



GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.

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