Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orchard Park, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
High cloudiness will continue to increasing ahead of the warm front nearing the region overnight.

The warm front will cross the area Friday, however the strongest lift associated will be to our north. This may produce a brief shower across Western NY from late morning through mid- afternoon as it passes through but the vast majority of the day will be rain-free. Model consensus shows a better chance for showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario region during the afternoon hours. With Western NY breaking into the warm sector and with a southerly downslope flow, favor warmer guidance with highs likely to top 70F at many locations Friday.

The first half of Friday night will be mainly rain-free, but showers will move in from the west ahead of an approaching cold front. Ample elevated instability for a few widely scattered thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A positively tilted mid-level trough will translate across Ontario/Quebec from the Great Lakes Saturday through Saturday night, sharpening and becoming increasingly closed off through the upper levels as it reaches the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday morning. This will drag a surface cold front through the forecast area from northwest to southeast through the day Saturday. Deep southwest flow will initially bring warm temps and breezy sfc winds while advecting a steady stream of Gulf-based moisture into the region along and ahead of this front. With the moderately forced environment in place, this will result in numerous showers and potentially a few widely scattered thunderstorms during the day Saturday. Overall coverage and QPF amounts look to be greatest across the Southern Tier and North Country. Cooler, drier air circulating around an area of high pressure building across the upper Great Lakes will push into the region immediately behind the front, resulting in a drying trend through the afternoon and evening though showers may linger in the Southern Tier into Saturday night.

Fair, seasonable weather then expected Sunday through much of Sunday night. There remains a low (15-20%) chance of a few showers reaching far western NY closer to Monday morning as the next system approaches the region.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Strong high pressure ridging will slide east across New England and into the Atlantic Monday as a broad low pressure system tracks from the Upper Midwest to near the southern Ontario/Quebec border by Tuesday morning. This will bring us the next round of widespread showers centered on late Monday and Monday night. Still some uncertainty in overall timing and coverage of showers as models show differences in how vertically stacked the system is, and thus discrepancies in its strength and track.

A cooler, dryer trend is expected late Monday night through Tuesday night as high pressure builds back in from the west and the low substantially weakens and slides across New England. The next area of low pressure will then encroach on the forecast area from the northwest sometime later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing warmer temps and chances for rain, though model spread is considerably higher at this range so PoPs remain close to deterministic NBM in 15- 25% range.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR will continue ahead of a warm front nearing the region overnight.

A warm front will pass by to our north on Friday, and this may produce some light rain showers which may briefly lowers vsby to 5- 6SM. Otherwise, it'll become windy during the day with gusts 25 to 30 knots.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR to MVFR with increasing chances of rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers and a chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.
Monday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Southerly winds will pick up late tonight and especially on Friday, but will direct the highest waves into Canadian waters.
Winds then shift to the southwest and increase Friday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Small craft headlines will likely be needed for some of the waters, at least with the southwesterly flow and possibly with the southerly winds.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ040-041.