Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orchard Park, NY
May 18, 2024 10:53 AM EDT (14:53 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:47 AM Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 2:50 PM Moonset 2:32 AM |
LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 640 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Today - Light and variable winds. Cloudy this morning, then becoming partly Sunny.
Tonight - North winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Sunday - Light and variable winds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sunday night - Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Monday - Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy.
Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 54 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 54 degrees.
LEZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 181041 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 641 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm will continue to be possible today. Dry weather returns areawide tonight which lasts through Tuesday. It will also become unseasonably warm with temperatures climbing well above normal. Unsettle weather returns by mid-week and turning progressively cooler.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Showers and pockets of drizzle will continue to diminish this morning as low-level forcing weakens and the deeper moisture exits off to our east. Low cloudiness and some pockets of fog (especially along the lake shores) will linger for part of the morning hours but some measure of clearing will take place by this afternoon. This will allow for limited instability to build with advertised 300-700 J/kg. With lingering moisture and effects from the trough we could see a few showers or even a thunderstorm develop this afternoon. The best chance to see a shower or storm will be found across Western NY (Southern Tier), and along any subtle boundary. Highs today will be found in the 70s for most locales.
Tonight...any lingering showers will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating
After that
generally quite and dry weather will take hold
That said
with lingering low-level moisture due to the recent rains some fog formation will be possible overnight.
Otherwise...a pleasant night is expected with lows found in the 50s.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Mainly dry weather expected this period as mid and upper level ridge builds overhead, while elongated surface ridge remains anchored in place, stretching from the Mid Atlantic coast to the New England coast. With very weak synoptic flow in place, expect developing onshore flow with lake breezes pushing inland both days that will keep areas along and near the lakeshores a bit cooler than inland areas.
The only small chances for any precip will be: Sunday during peak heating with a weak lingering surface convergent boundary lying across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region where a few scattered diurnally driven showers may bubble up. On Monday, humidity levels start to rise a bit more with a deeper southwesterly flow becoming established as mid and upper level ridge axis shifts just to our east. Strong diurnal heating combined with the increased moisture may be enough to spark a few showers along any aforementioned lake breeze boundaries. Confidence is low at this point of this occurring, so capped PoPs below SChc for now. Otherwise, most areas remain dry through the period.
The main story will be the warmth. Rising heights aloft associated with mid and upper level ridge building overhead, a continued south/southwest low level flow, and a good deal of sunshine will help boost temperatures to well above average levels by the start of the new work week. Expect highs Sunday mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Unfortunately, the strong mid and upper level ridge will start to weaken by Tuesday as successive shortwaves traversing the northern periphery of the ridge start to knock it down. That said, outside of any diurnally driven activity (mainly along and inland of any lake breeze boundaries), which at this time looks to be minimal, better chances for showers and storms will remain north of the Canadian border where the better forcing will stay for time being. It will be even warmer on Tuesday with increasing southwesterly flow promoting better diurnal mixing, which will help boost afternoon highs into the low to mid 80s across the bulk of western and northcentral NY, with a few upper 80s not out of the question for the traditionally warmer spots across the Genesee Valley and lake plains. It will be a bit cooler along the lakeshores.
As is typical this far out in time, model guidance differs some on the timing of the strong cold front that has been advertised to impact the area in the mid to late week timeframe. At this point, front looks to cross the area sometime Wednesday night or Thursday.
This will yield another very warm summer-like day on Wednesday, as highs will once again soar into the 80s for much of the area. That said, precipitation chances will increase Wednesday afternoon as a lead shortwave and associated prefrontal trough approach the area ahead of the actual cold front, with the best chances for showers and storms across western NY during the second half of the day.
Unsettled weather can then be expected as waves of low pressure moving northward along the slowly eastward progressing cold front bring periods of showers and storms to our region for Wednesday night and Thursday, before high pressure builds back in providing a dry finish to the work week. As noted in the previous discussion, a cooler airmass is expected to filter in across the northeastern U.S.
in the wake of the cold fropa, however there is still model discrepancy in just how cool that airmass will be, as well as the exact timing of its arrival. All this said, just using pattern recognition alone lends to fairly high confidence that cooler weather is on the way for the latter half of the work week and potentially into the upcoming holiday weekend. Stay tuned.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Cloudy skies with a few showers lingering across the region this morning. A mixture of VFR to LIFR conditions can be found across area terminals. There is also some areas of fog.
Otherwise...cloudy skies will give way to some breaks with a few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm possible this afternoon across Western NY. Mainly focused across the Southern Tier, and along any subtle boundary.
Elsewhere...mostly dry with VFR flight conditions.
Tonight...any lingering showers will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. There will be some fog possible overnight which may bring some impacts with LIFR-IFR conditions.
Outlook...
Sunday through Tuesday...mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR-MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
MARINE
The only thing to contend with on the lakes today will be some fog over the open waters. A dense fog advisory for Lake Erie has been issue until noon today
Otherwise
light winds with minimal wave action expected on the lakes through Monday.
South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front through the lakes.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 641 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm will continue to be possible today. Dry weather returns areawide tonight which lasts through Tuesday. It will also become unseasonably warm with temperatures climbing well above normal. Unsettle weather returns by mid-week and turning progressively cooler.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Showers and pockets of drizzle will continue to diminish this morning as low-level forcing weakens and the deeper moisture exits off to our east. Low cloudiness and some pockets of fog (especially along the lake shores) will linger for part of the morning hours but some measure of clearing will take place by this afternoon. This will allow for limited instability to build with advertised 300-700 J/kg. With lingering moisture and effects from the trough we could see a few showers or even a thunderstorm develop this afternoon. The best chance to see a shower or storm will be found across Western NY (Southern Tier), and along any subtle boundary. Highs today will be found in the 70s for most locales.
Tonight...any lingering showers will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating
After that
generally quite and dry weather will take hold
That said
with lingering low-level moisture due to the recent rains some fog formation will be possible overnight.
Otherwise...a pleasant night is expected with lows found in the 50s.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Mainly dry weather expected this period as mid and upper level ridge builds overhead, while elongated surface ridge remains anchored in place, stretching from the Mid Atlantic coast to the New England coast. With very weak synoptic flow in place, expect developing onshore flow with lake breezes pushing inland both days that will keep areas along and near the lakeshores a bit cooler than inland areas.
The only small chances for any precip will be: Sunday during peak heating with a weak lingering surface convergent boundary lying across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region where a few scattered diurnally driven showers may bubble up. On Monday, humidity levels start to rise a bit more with a deeper southwesterly flow becoming established as mid and upper level ridge axis shifts just to our east. Strong diurnal heating combined with the increased moisture may be enough to spark a few showers along any aforementioned lake breeze boundaries. Confidence is low at this point of this occurring, so capped PoPs below SChc for now. Otherwise, most areas remain dry through the period.
The main story will be the warmth. Rising heights aloft associated with mid and upper level ridge building overhead, a continued south/southwest low level flow, and a good deal of sunshine will help boost temperatures to well above average levels by the start of the new work week. Expect highs Sunday mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Unfortunately, the strong mid and upper level ridge will start to weaken by Tuesday as successive shortwaves traversing the northern periphery of the ridge start to knock it down. That said, outside of any diurnally driven activity (mainly along and inland of any lake breeze boundaries), which at this time looks to be minimal, better chances for showers and storms will remain north of the Canadian border where the better forcing will stay for time being. It will be even warmer on Tuesday with increasing southwesterly flow promoting better diurnal mixing, which will help boost afternoon highs into the low to mid 80s across the bulk of western and northcentral NY, with a few upper 80s not out of the question for the traditionally warmer spots across the Genesee Valley and lake plains. It will be a bit cooler along the lakeshores.
As is typical this far out in time, model guidance differs some on the timing of the strong cold front that has been advertised to impact the area in the mid to late week timeframe. At this point, front looks to cross the area sometime Wednesday night or Thursday.
This will yield another very warm summer-like day on Wednesday, as highs will once again soar into the 80s for much of the area. That said, precipitation chances will increase Wednesday afternoon as a lead shortwave and associated prefrontal trough approach the area ahead of the actual cold front, with the best chances for showers and storms across western NY during the second half of the day.
Unsettled weather can then be expected as waves of low pressure moving northward along the slowly eastward progressing cold front bring periods of showers and storms to our region for Wednesday night and Thursday, before high pressure builds back in providing a dry finish to the work week. As noted in the previous discussion, a cooler airmass is expected to filter in across the northeastern U.S.
in the wake of the cold fropa, however there is still model discrepancy in just how cool that airmass will be, as well as the exact timing of its arrival. All this said, just using pattern recognition alone lends to fairly high confidence that cooler weather is on the way for the latter half of the work week and potentially into the upcoming holiday weekend. Stay tuned.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Cloudy skies with a few showers lingering across the region this morning. A mixture of VFR to LIFR conditions can be found across area terminals. There is also some areas of fog.
Otherwise...cloudy skies will give way to some breaks with a few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm possible this afternoon across Western NY. Mainly focused across the Southern Tier, and along any subtle boundary.
Elsewhere...mostly dry with VFR flight conditions.
Tonight...any lingering showers will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. There will be some fog possible overnight which may bring some impacts with LIFR-IFR conditions.
Outlook...
Sunday through Tuesday...mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR-MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
MARINE
The only thing to contend with on the lakes today will be some fog over the open waters. A dense fog advisory for Lake Erie has been issue until noon today
Otherwise
light winds with minimal wave action expected on the lakes through Monday.
South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front through the lakes.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 11 mi | 54 min | NW 7G | 60°F | 29.90 | |||
| PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 16 mi | 54 min | 29.91 | |||||
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 26 mi | 54 min | 29.93 | |||||
| 45142 - Port Colborne | 29 mi | 54 min | NW 3.9G | 58°F | 56°F | 0 ft | 29.93 | |
| DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY | 37 mi | 54 min | NNE 1.9G | 59°F | 29.93 | |||
| YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 38 mi | 54 min | WNW 4.1G | 58°F | 29.94 | |||
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 40 mi | 54 min | NE 2.9G | 56°F | 29.95 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBUF BUFFALO NIAGARA INTL,NY | 12 sm | 50 min | NNW 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 61°F | 83% | 29.92 |
Buffalo, NY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE