Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holland, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:02AMSunset 5:12PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 2:02 PM EST (19:02 UTC) Moonrise 4:23PMMoonset 6:12AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1105 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening...
Rest of today..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Periods of snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots veering northwest 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing south late at night, then backing southeast toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots veering northwest late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:201912102200;;146170 FZUS53 KGRR 101606 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1105 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-102200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holland, MI
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location: 42.77, -86.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 101813 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 113 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 1147 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

- Lake effect snow tapers off a bit this afternoon

- Possible boost in lake effect snow again late tonight and Wed morning

- Slick spots at times into Wednesday

- Another system for the weekend

UPDATE. Issued at 1147 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

Lake effect snow this morning got a boost from a 500mb shortwave and deeper moisture than was expected going into the event. Snowfall totals range from a dusting to 3 inches across portions of Western Lower Michigan. The upper shortwave and deeper moisture will pull off to the east this afternoon, so we expect the intensity in the snow bands to decrease. There may be an expansion in area of snow showers, due to typical diurnal affects, but additional snowfall this afternoon should be limited, inch or less in most areas.

Going into tonight and Wednesday morning we are expecting continued lake effect snow showers, especially in the lakeshore counties with a westerly winds in the cloud layer of 20-25 knots. There could be a flare up once again late tonight with another shortwave working through the area. We will take a look at the potential for any headlines with the afternoon forecast update. At this point though we are not expecting significant accumulations. Any headline would be based on travel disruption expectations for the Wednesday morning commute.

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Monday) Issued at 303 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

The main challenges in the period deal with the timing and strength of the snow showers over the next couple of days. To start a low level front was dropping down from the north northwest Stronger low level convergence was noted along this front and has led to a band of snow showers. These stretched from just south of Muskegon . eastward through the Grand Rapids area an further inland to near Lansing. There was even some drizzle just ahead of the snow showers. This front and associated snow shower activity will continue to drop south southeast through the remainder of the early morning hours. With the low level temperatures falling to freezing or lower over the next couple of hours . icy spots are possible on untreated surfaces As for accumulations. it appears this initial band of snow will only lead to localized accumulations of up to and inch or two in a few spots this morning.

An 700 mb wave in ND will pivot east and into MI this afternoon and evening. With favorable lake moisture ongoing and the moisture deepening up . some band of snow showers will likely develop and strengthen leading to perhaps a couple of inches of snow where the bands persist. One favored area may be up between Little and Big Sable points. It appears the low level convergence will be maximized in that area. Around 03Z Wed the DGZ is shown to be moist with a surface trough forecasted to be along the lakeshore . especially south of Muskegon. Given the arctic air spilling over the lake a definite risk for increased band of the snow showers exists then. It is hard to say how much if any snow will accumulate . but these early system tend to overperform given the stronger delta T values that will be in place. Thus localized impacts are likely for the Tue evening and Wednesday morning commutes.

An 850 mb ridge is shown to build in for later Wednesday into Wednesday night. That should result in a general decrease in the risk for accumulating lake effect snow showers.

Warm air advection sets up for Thursday into Friday here in MI as low pressure track northeastward through the Central Plains. A band of moisture on the leading edge of this warm air advection is seen up around 700 mb. This could support a period of snow mainly for the northern parts of the CWA on Thursday.

The next storm system arrives for the weekend. Initially it looks like mainly a rain event for Saturday . but as the upper level wave moves in for Saturday night into Sunday a transition to snow is forecasted. This system as some potential to lead to impacts Saturday night into Sunday especially closer to the lakeshore as the low level flow is forecasted to be north northwest.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 112 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

As is often the case with lake effect snow, aviation conditions downwind of the lake across Western Lower Michigan are highly variable. Conditions range from VFR in between snow bands to LIFR at times.

We expect the snow bands to lose some intensity as we work through the afternoon hours of today. Conditions will improve slightly to mainly VFR and MVFR this afternoon and evening. We are then expecting a slight increase in lake effect snow activity overnight into Wednesday morning where aviation conditions will dip back into the MVFR and IFR categories. Conditions should improve once again Wednesday afternoon.

Winds will be west this afternoon at 10-20 knots, backing down to 8-12 knots tonight and increasing once again on Wednesday to 15-25 knots.

MARINE. Issued at 303 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

The pressure gradient has weakened somewhat which has supported decreasing winds Still. the winds are well within the small craft advisory criteria range. With cold air advection to persist into Wednesday conditions will remain hazardous for small craft. We will maintain the headline. There may be some freezing spray at times which could pose a risk to mariners.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.



UPDATE . Duke SYNOPSIS . MJS DISCUSSION . MJS AVIATION . Duke MARINE . MJS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 6 mi50 min W 16 G 22 25°F 38°F1018.1 hPa19°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 27 mi32 min W 20 G 25 24°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 34 mi22 min NNW 19 G 20 23°F 1021.1 hPa18°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 51 mi62 min W 14 G 25 26°F 1020.3 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI1 mi69 minWNW 11 G 198.00 miLight Snow24°F16°F71%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIV

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW14
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SW8SW8SW8SW7W5CalmSE3SE3SE5S5S5S5S5SE6SE9S10SW8SW14
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2 days agoS8S7S5SE6S6S7S7S7S9S7S9S10S11S14S13S11S12S11S10S8SW21
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.