Monday, April6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holland, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 8:18PM Monday April 6, 2020 1:21 AM EDT (05:21 UTC) Moonrise 5:38PMMoonset 5:54AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Sun Apr 5 2020
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds around 5 knots veering southeast toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..South winds around 10 knots veering southwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 10 knots veering south. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots veering northwest after midnight. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing west. Mostly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..West winds to 30 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:202004060900;;636177 FZUS53 KGRR 060206 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-060900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holland, MI
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location: 42.77, -86.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 060520 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 120 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

- Increasing clouds Monday, rain late

- Storms possible Tuesday evening

- Strong cold front Wednesday night, windy Thursday

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

-- Increasing clouds Monday, rain late --

High clouds will increase on Monday, but temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than Sunday and several degrees warmer than normal. The arrival of moisture below 10,000 feet should wait until Monday evening once southwesterly flow increases to 20-30 kt on the backside of the high. Showers will likely develop by late evening in southwest Michigan on the nose of this moisture advection. Can't rule out an occasional lightning flash overnight, but the greater instability will be in Illinois/Indiana.

-- Storms possible Tuesday evening --

GFS, ECMWF, and NAM are bringing a conditional threat of severe storms Tuesday evening. A weak 500 mb shortwave / speed max and 1000 mb surface low are expected to approach from Minnesota- Wisconsin during the day, while southwesterly low-level flow transports milder, relatively moist air into the region. High temperatures may climb well into the 60s while dewpoints reach the 50s. An EML advecting over Lower Michigan from the central high plains with 700- 500 mb lapse rates of 8 K/km would support capped instability approaching 1000 J/kg in the late afternoon. If storms were to develop with the impetus of the mid-level wave and surface low, environmental 0-3 km shear over 30 kt and 0-6 km shear around 50 kt would be adequate for organization including bow segments.

Here are the caveats and open questions that would limit severe weather potential: Will Monday night's convection tend to backbuild farther west/southwest into Illinois and persist longer than models simulate? This is a typical bias with nocturnal low- level jet setups, resulting in an effective warm front much farther south than expected, and an eroded EML downstream, not to mention clouds. Are models overestimating low-level moisture return? They typically have a high dewpoint bias in our region in early spring. Drier air would decrease instability and increase convective inhibition. Finally of note, a smattering of model solutions are less aggressive with surface low development and have more veered/WSW surface winds rather than backed/SSW.

-- Strong cold front Wednesday night, windy Thursday --

The polar jet is expected to dig southward into the northern Plains and Great Lakes and develop a strong surface low in northern Ontario Wednesday night. 850 temperatures will plunge from about +5C to -5C in 12 hours with the cold front, swinging us back to colder-than-normal weather on Thursday and Friday. Some light showers are also expected with the front Wednesday evening/overnight. The pressure gradient will be fairly strong on Thursday, between the 980 mb low in Quebec and the 1020 mb high in North Dakota. GFS is showing us deeply mixed from the surface to 9,000 feet on Thursday, with enough moisture for shower development due to daytime heating. Wind gusts over 40 mph are likely during the day.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

Clear skies this morning will give way to high clouds through early afternoon. An approaching warm front late in the day will spread lower clouds into West Michigan and MVFR cigs and light rain will develop after 00z.

MARINE. Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

Fairly quiet conditions in the short term with north winds tonight becoming more from the south/southeast Monday. Hazards from lightning are possible over southern Lake Michigan Monday evening/night, and another chance of thunderstorms exists over Lake Michigan Tuesday afternoon/evening. Winds and waves will be hazardous to small craft Wednesday night into Friday, with gusts reaching gale force possible on Thursday.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

River levels continue to drop with the Grand River at Ionia and the Maple River at Maple Rapids still at bankfull. River levels will continue to recede into tomorrow afternoon as dry conditions persist. We expect to see some additional periodic chances for rainfall Monday night through Wednesday night, however the treat for flooding remains low.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . CAS DISCUSSION . CAS AVIATION . 04 HYDROLOGY . Thielke MARINE . CAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 6 mi58 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 37°F 44°F1020.8 hPa33°F
45029 13 mi22 min NNW 1.9 G 3.9 38°F 39°F1 ft1022.4 hPa (+0.0)35°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 27 mi22 min NE 1 G 1.9 36°F
45168 29 mi22 min NW 3.9 G 3.9 37°F 40°F1 ft1022.5 hPa34°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 34 mi22 min E 8 G 8.9 37°F 1023 hPa (+0.4)27°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI1 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair34°F28°F79%1022.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIV

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmCalmNE4Calm4NE4N4N64NE5E4Calm4W8NW10NW8NW6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE6SE4S5SE5CalmW7NW10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E8SE5E33CalmW7W5NW5CalmNW5NW3CalmE3E4E4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.