Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Caledonia, MI
April 26, 2024 3:50 AM EDT (07:50 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:41 AM Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 11:01 PM Moonset 6:49 AM |
LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Rest of tonight - East winds 10 to 20 knots veering southeast 15 to 25 knots toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night - Southeast winds to 30 knots veering south toward daybreak. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 5 to 7 feet after midnight.
Saturday - South gales to 35 knots decreasing to 30 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny with a chance of Thunderstorms and a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Saturday night - South winds to 30 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Sunday - South winds 20 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday - South winds 20 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday - Southwest winds around 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 260611 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 211 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Another Cold Night
- Showers and Thunderstorms Arrive Friday Night
- Warmer with Rounds of Showers and Storms Saturday into Monday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 343 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
- Another Cold Night
We have issued a Freeze Warning for interior sections and a Frost Advisory for the counties bordering Lake Michigan for tonight. The airmass will be modified a bit from last night and return flow begins late tonight as the surface ridge begins to move east, but model soundings still show an very dry airmass through 12Z Friday with precipitable water down near 0.15 inches. This should allow temperatures to drop quickly like last night. There could be some wind picking up by 12Z...but we still expect temperatures to drop to around 30 in the warning area and lower 30s in the advisory.
- Showers and Thunderstorms Arrive Friday Night
Return flow increases Friday but it will take a while to moisten the column of the very dry atmosphere and showers will probably hold off until Friday evening although clouds will be in the increase in the afternoon with isolated showers possible across the southwest zones late in the day.
A large area of isentropic ascent and strong warm advection pattern combine with the arrival of deep moisture to bring increasing chances for rain Friday night and elevated instability should be enough for isolated thunder and some heavier downpours late Friday night. We will keep the categorical POPs across the northwest half of the forecast area where the axis of deeper moisture and lift will be.
- Warmer with Rounds of Showers and Storms Saturday into Monday
Low confidence at present in convective trends for Later Saturday Afternoon and Evening. A conditionally favorable environment for organized convection will be present given MUCAPE values of over 1000 J/kg as moisture climbs in strong SW flow, and deep layer shear values climbing to 35-45 knots given the low and mid-level jets in place. However, this is contingent on storms being able to develop which is in question given weak to no forcing in place given the frontal boundary and shortwave remain to our west. If storms can develop, organized convection is possible which is covered by the current SPC marginal to slight risk across the CWA It will be breezy however with NBM probs of 90+ percent for gusts over 30 mph for much of the area and 10-20 percent for 40+ mph, with warm air advection somewhat limiting gust potential. NBM 20-30 percent precip chances seem reasonable later Saturday.
As the warm front sits to out north Sunday a second round of showers and storms is expected across Central Lower, especially in the northwest CWA towards Ludington aided by a shortwave to our northwest and the right entrance region of the upper-level jet.
Given CAPE values north of 1000 J/kg thunder is likely and deep layer shear is still decent so Sunday will need to be watched too.
Showers then expand across the CWA Sunday Night into Monday as the cold front drifts south before clearing the area Monday evening.
CAPE values on the ECMWF and GFS still look to be above 500 J/kg so thunder continues to be possible.
Dry conditions for Tuesday as a period of surface ridging drifts over the area before chances increase for showers increase Wednesday/Thursday as a shortwave drives through before a trough passes overhead.
850mb temperatures climb into the teens this weekend into early next week causing temperatures to climb into the 70s with low (around 10 percent) chances that areas exceed 80 degrees. Highs will be well into the 70s, which is over 10 degrees above normal, through at least Tuesday making it feel like summer.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 212 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
A warm front will slowly lift towards the Great Lakes region over the next 24 hours from the Central Plains. Clouds will gradually lower and thicken during this time frame. Mainly clear skies are found across the area at 06Z which will remain the case through sunrise. High clouds with bases near 25,000ft will spread in during the morning hours and lower to 7,000-10,000 feet by 00z this evening. Rain showers will spread in after 00z, with the best chances in this TAF period occurring in the 03Z to 06Z time frame towards Lake Michigan.
Winds will be from the east and southeast the next 24 becoming gusty during daylight hours. Today winds of 15 to 25 knots will be common.
MARINE
Issued at 343 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Winds will increase on Friday and Friday night. A SCA may be needed by late Friday afternoon or evening continuing into early next week as a persistent pressure gradient keeps southwest winds elevated and waves building over 4 feet to as high as 8 feet north of Pentwater.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ043-050-056- 064-071-072.
Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ044>046-051- 052-057>059-065>067-073-074.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 211 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Another Cold Night
- Showers and Thunderstorms Arrive Friday Night
- Warmer with Rounds of Showers and Storms Saturday into Monday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 343 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
- Another Cold Night
We have issued a Freeze Warning for interior sections and a Frost Advisory for the counties bordering Lake Michigan for tonight. The airmass will be modified a bit from last night and return flow begins late tonight as the surface ridge begins to move east, but model soundings still show an very dry airmass through 12Z Friday with precipitable water down near 0.15 inches. This should allow temperatures to drop quickly like last night. There could be some wind picking up by 12Z...but we still expect temperatures to drop to around 30 in the warning area and lower 30s in the advisory.
- Showers and Thunderstorms Arrive Friday Night
Return flow increases Friday but it will take a while to moisten the column of the very dry atmosphere and showers will probably hold off until Friday evening although clouds will be in the increase in the afternoon with isolated showers possible across the southwest zones late in the day.
A large area of isentropic ascent and strong warm advection pattern combine with the arrival of deep moisture to bring increasing chances for rain Friday night and elevated instability should be enough for isolated thunder and some heavier downpours late Friday night. We will keep the categorical POPs across the northwest half of the forecast area where the axis of deeper moisture and lift will be.
- Warmer with Rounds of Showers and Storms Saturday into Monday
Low confidence at present in convective trends for Later Saturday Afternoon and Evening. A conditionally favorable environment for organized convection will be present given MUCAPE values of over 1000 J/kg as moisture climbs in strong SW flow, and deep layer shear values climbing to 35-45 knots given the low and mid-level jets in place. However, this is contingent on storms being able to develop which is in question given weak to no forcing in place given the frontal boundary and shortwave remain to our west. If storms can develop, organized convection is possible which is covered by the current SPC marginal to slight risk across the CWA It will be breezy however with NBM probs of 90+ percent for gusts over 30 mph for much of the area and 10-20 percent for 40+ mph, with warm air advection somewhat limiting gust potential. NBM 20-30 percent precip chances seem reasonable later Saturday.
As the warm front sits to out north Sunday a second round of showers and storms is expected across Central Lower, especially in the northwest CWA towards Ludington aided by a shortwave to our northwest and the right entrance region of the upper-level jet.
Given CAPE values north of 1000 J/kg thunder is likely and deep layer shear is still decent so Sunday will need to be watched too.
Showers then expand across the CWA Sunday Night into Monday as the cold front drifts south before clearing the area Monday evening.
CAPE values on the ECMWF and GFS still look to be above 500 J/kg so thunder continues to be possible.
Dry conditions for Tuesday as a period of surface ridging drifts over the area before chances increase for showers increase Wednesday/Thursday as a shortwave drives through before a trough passes overhead.
850mb temperatures climb into the teens this weekend into early next week causing temperatures to climb into the 70s with low (around 10 percent) chances that areas exceed 80 degrees. Highs will be well into the 70s, which is over 10 degrees above normal, through at least Tuesday making it feel like summer.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 212 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
A warm front will slowly lift towards the Great Lakes region over the next 24 hours from the Central Plains. Clouds will gradually lower and thicken during this time frame. Mainly clear skies are found across the area at 06Z which will remain the case through sunrise. High clouds with bases near 25,000ft will spread in during the morning hours and lower to 7,000-10,000 feet by 00z this evening. Rain showers will spread in after 00z, with the best chances in this TAF period occurring in the 03Z to 06Z time frame towards Lake Michigan.
Winds will be from the east and southeast the next 24 becoming gusty during daylight hours. Today winds of 15 to 25 knots will be common.
MARINE
Issued at 343 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Winds will increase on Friday and Friday night. A SCA may be needed by late Friday afternoon or evening continuing into early next week as a persistent pressure gradient keeps southwest winds elevated and waves building over 4 feet to as high as 8 feet north of Pentwater.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ043-050-056- 064-071-072.
Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ044>046-051- 052-057>059-065>067-073-074.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 35 mi | 50 min | E 6G | 44°F | 51°F | 30.23 | 23°F | |
| 45029 | 39 mi | 40 min | SE 12G | 44°F | 46°F | 1 ft | 34°F | |
| SVNM4 - South Haven, MI | 47 mi | 40 min | E 8.9G | 44°F | ||||
| MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI | 52 mi | 30 min | E 8.9G | 42°F | 30.28 | 30°F | ||
| SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI | 69 mi | 50 min | E 2.9G | 43°F | 30.27 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGRR GERALD R FORD INTL,MI | 6 sm | 57 min | E 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 37°F | 30°F | 75% | 30.30 |
Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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