Saturday, October31, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Caledonia, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:15AMSunset 6:37PM Saturday October 31, 2020 12:49 AM EDT (04:49 UTC) Moonrise 5:57PMMoonset 7:05AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Fri Oct 30 2020
.gale warning in effect from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering east 10 to 20 knots late at night, then veering southeast toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..South winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots late in the day. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 9 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest gales to 40 knots veering west gales to 45 knots toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 9 to 13 feet.
Sunday..Northwest gales to 40 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 10 to 14 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest gales to 35 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 8 to 12 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet toward daybreak.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds around 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:202010310900;;096524 FZUS53 KGRR 310205 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-310900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caledonia, MI
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location: 42.79, -85.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 302234 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 634 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Update/Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

- High winds and falling temperatures on Sunday

- Lake enhanced snow showers late Sunday

- Cold early week, moderating by mid-week

UPDATE. Issued at 633 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

I have updated our zone forecast to keep the clouds in through early tonight. Satellite loops show no clearing trend that is obvious to me.

Normally when we get on the anticyclonic side of the upper jet, the skies typically clear here, even at this time of year. However we still have a north wind in the boundary layer and that means our cloudy layer is trapped. Toward midnight the boundary layer wind turns to the south as the surface high moves east of this area. That should bring up drier air from the south and finally clear the clouds. This could mean warmer low temperatures but that would depend on just when the clouds actually clear. So for now I have left the low temperatures alone. If the clouds still show no sign of clearing by 10 pm, I will likely increase our forecast low temperatures significantly.

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

-High winds and falling temperatures on Sunday

Forecast wind profiles continue to show 40 to 45 knots in the mixing layer for Sunday afternoon and evening so we expect the potential for wind gusts over 40 mph along Lake Michigan coastal counties. Strong winds over the lake could also generate waves large enough to cause some beach erosion and coastal flooding. The best chance of that happening will be from late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

- Brief shot of lake enhanced snow showers late Sunday

Sharp thermal trough with 850 mb temps plunging to minus 10C or lower Sunday afternoon and evening. Strong CAA will mean temperatures actually falling through the 30s during the day and surfaces should be cold enough for any snow to stick, although accumulations are expected to be an inch or less most places.

Model soundings show inversion heights generally in or above the DGZ and cyclonic flow and lake generated instability helping create some decent updrafts, although strong winds will tend to prevent disrupt stronger bands. SOme rain will mlx in near the shore because of the warmer lake temps near the surface. The trough axis moves east with drying early Monday. Expect little to no impact to travel at this time.

- Cold early week, moderating by mid-week

Trough moves out early next week with rising heights and moderating temperatures by mid-week. 850 mb temps go from about 0C on Monday to about 14C on Wednesday. No precip expected through the end of the week as western CONUS trough amplifies keeping ridging across the east.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 633 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Currently VFR cigs remain over our TAF sites. I am thinking the clouds should start to clear toward midnight as winds in the boundary layer turn to the south and that in turn brings up drier air from Indiana and Illinois. Skies should for the most part stay mostly clear into Saturday afternoon. By early evening the mid clouds from the approaching system should start moving in.

Winds will light this evening then turn to the south and increase toward sunrise. Gusty winds from the south are expected on Saturday.


MARINE. Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

We have issued a Gale Warning and Lakeshore Flood Warning for the entire nearshore for Sunday afternoon into early Monday. The highest winds will be across the northern zones where gusts could top Storm force at times on Sunday afternoon and evening. Erosion of dunes and some coastal flooding also expected as waves build over 10 feet in west and northwest flow.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM . Gale Warning from 2 PM EDT Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.



UPDATE . WDM SYNOPSIS . Ostuno DISCUSSION . Ostuno AVIATION . WDM MARINE . Ostuno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 35 mi50 min E 4.1 G 8 37°F 49°F1027.5 hPa (+0.6)27°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 47 mi40 min ENE 5.1 G 7 37°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 52 mi30 min E 7 G 8.9 35°F 1029.9 hPa22°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 69 mi50 min E 1.9 G 4.1 38°F 1028.1 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Rapids, Gerald R. Ford International Airport, MI7 mi57 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F21°F61%1028.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGRR

Wind History from GRR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6N8N6N4N5NW4NW7N9N9N9N10N12N8
G17
N106NW9NW8N9N8N6N7NE4E3Calm
1 day agoS4S3S3SE3E4CalmCalmN6NE8NE11NE11N15N13N13N14N12N13N11N10N9NE12N10N9NE7
2 days agoSW7SW10SW9SW8SW8SW7SW6SW8SW9--SW15
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W15SW14SW10W8W7S4S4S5S5W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.