Tuesday, September22, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Caledonia, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 7:40PM Tuesday September 22, 2020 1:40 AM EDT (05:40 UTC) Moonrise 12:47PMMoonset 10:12PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Mon Sep 21 2020
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering west toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:202009220900;;173605 FZUS53 KGRR 220205 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-220900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caledonia, MI
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location: 42.79, -85.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 220528 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 128 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

- Warm and Dry Through Saturday

- Wet and cooler Sunday through Wednesday

- Smoke will hang around into mid week

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

-- Warm and Dry Through Saturday--

The official start of Fall is tomorrow at 931 am. The rest of this week into the weekend is likely to be warmer than normal. The average high temperature at Grand Rapids from the 22nd through the 26th is 69 degrees. We are forecasting highs in the range of 75 to 78 during that time period. The normal low averages 48 degrees, which is what our forecast is for Tuesday morning, but the rest of the week, lows are forecast closer to 56 degree. Both the high and low temperatures are forecast between 5 and 10 degrees above normal.

We can thank the polar jet for being north of the Canadian border for this. Also we have upper level ridging for the most part through this period. We do actually have three shortwaves come through this area during that time but the first two (tonight and Wednesday) are on the northern stream and the 1000 to 850 mb flow stays from the southwest even through the upper level winds do briefly shift to the northwest behind each of these shortwaves. That means we continue to get feed of warm dry air through the week.

By Saturday we have the the first of the three Pacific shortwaves that came from the area of eastern Russia coming into the Great Lakes. That really increases the upper heights over us and results in strong warm advection. I could see highs into the 80s if this plays out that way. Still it will be to dry for rain, even then.

-- Wet and cooler Sunday through Wednesday--

By Sunday we start to see the impact of the second Pacific shortwave coming toward us. Since there is a trailing wave digging into the back of the Pacific trough near the dateline we get strong rossby wave breaking over the Great Lakes as this is happening. By Monday afternoon both the GFS and ECMWF and their ensemble members. A deep upper trough with a closed upper low develops near this area. This time we are deeply inside of the cyclonic side of the polar jet. That will result in enough low to mid level instability for lake effect showers, water spouts and other related phenomena. It will also turn much colder. I would expect area wide highs in the 50s at best by Tuesday.

The details of how this plays out at the surface for rain is still being resolved by the models but the ensembles of the GFS (20) and the ECMWF (50) all show precipitation in that time frame. At this point it would seem later Sunday into Tuesday is when most of the precipitation should occur. The ECMWF ensemble mean area wide precipitation in on the order of an inch for that time period with the greatest amounts, near 1.3 inches, being west of US-131 (lake effect enhancement).

-- Smoke will hang around into mid week--

The smoke is back and more than likely will remain around most of this week since the overall mid level flow is from the west. Until that changes (maybe by Saturday) we will continue to see that smoke layer. From the RAP model smoke cross sections, it seems most of it is between 5,000 ft and 20,000 ft. The greatest smoke density is near 10,000 ft.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday night. Southeast winds overnight around 5 knots going southwest 5 to 10 knots today.

MARINE. Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Our wind/wave event north of Whitehall is playing out largely as forecast. Ludington's buoy has waves around 5 feet as of a few minutes ago. Most of the marine buoys and near shore mesonet have wind gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range. As the northern stream system passes north of here the pressure gradient decreases. So, the winds and waves will subside. We should be able to allow the headlines to expire on time (8 pm).

The next event seems to be associated with the system coming into the area on Saturday. Once in the area we may need marine headlines into Tuesday or even Wednesday. If we get that rossby wave breaking event to really happen we may need gales at some point during that time.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . WDM DISCUSSION . WDM AVIATION . Ostuno MARINE . WDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 35 mi53 min SE 11 G 14 65°F 63°F1024 hPa45°F
45029 39 mi31 min SSE 9.7 G 12 64°F 64°F1 ft1024.5 hPa50°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 47 mi41 min ESE 12 G 14 61°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 52 mi31 min S 11 G 14 63°F 1024.7 hPa48°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 69 mi41 min Calm G 4.1 59°F 1025.1 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Rapids, Gerald R. Ford International Airport, MI7 mi48 minSE 610.00 miFair53°F45°F74%1025.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGRR

Wind History from GRR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE7E4E4CalmE5E5E3SE6S6S7S835S8S7S9SE4SE3CalmSE5SE5SE5SE6
1 day agoE4CalmE3CalmE4SE4E4CalmSE5SE6S10E76SE7SE9SE8SE11SE6SE4SE8SE10SE9SE8SE8
2 days agoE3NE6NE3E3E3E3CalmCalmS5SE7E6CalmE5S3S3SE7CalmSE5CalmCalmCalmCalmE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.