Friday, April10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Caledonia, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 8:21PM Friday April 10, 2020 6:23 AM EDT (10:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:48PMMoonset 7:57AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 405 Am Edt Fri Apr 10 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Early this morning..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Today..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet late in the day.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..West winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 6 to 9 feet building to 9 to 13 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:202004102000;;864908 FZUS53 KGRR 100806 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-102000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caledonia, MI
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location: 42.79, -85.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 100852 CCA AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 345 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Hydro

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 331 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

- Snow showers coming to an end by noon, still cold

- Saturday temperatures warm to near normal

- Very significant spring storm Easter Sunday into Monday

- Much cooler most of next week

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Thursday) Issued at 331 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

--Snow showers coming to an end by noon, still cold --

Snow showers are expected to continue into mid morning today. As is typical of deep cold air events in the Great Lakes, there is a shortwave associated with the Polar jet coming back through this area. The RAP, NAM and GFS show inversion levels near 6000 ft and the equilibrium level for convection near 6000 ft till nearly noon. Model sounding cape is as much as 100 j/kg which is good for snow showers actually. The 850 mb temperatures are near -10 till then (noon). I see no reason to believe the snow showers will really end until we get on the anticyclonic side of the polar jet (during this afternoon). While I do not see any significant snowfall today, MKG has had visibilities down below a mile in snow showers and our 88d shows the snow showers continuing. So from time to time expect a scattered, brief snow showers that will significantly reduce visibilities and may put a few tenths of an inch on the grass.

Once we get on the anticyclonic side of the polar jet this afternoon, skies should clear for while. That clearing should last most of tonight. Mid and highs clouds from the upstream system should not move in our area until mid morning Saturday. That should allow most areas to get below freezing early Saturday morning.

--Saturday temperatures warm to near normal--

Saturday should see significantly milder afternoon temperatures as the developing upstream system will push a shortwave ridge into this area. There will be enough warm advection to bring our afternoon temperatures to near normal for this time of year, that would be in the lower to mid 50s.

--Very significant spring storm Easter Sunday into Monday--

With very good model continuity for this event, we are thinking a high wind warning Monday is not out of the question. The GEFS-M-Climate Return interval for the below 980 mb low center, forecast to be over Lake Huron by Monday afternoon, is outside the 30 year climate period (that means a system that deep has not happened in the past 30 years in that area, at this time of year). The ECMWF 00z run is showing widespread wind gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range Monday afternoon. It has near hurricane force wind gusts over northern lake Huron. The ECMWF 18z ensemble mean supports the widespread wind gusts to 50 mph Monday.

We are expecting the phasing of a closed upper low over the Southwestern United States with a strongly digging northern stream system Sunday. This results in a negative tilt upper wave, which typically results in a rapidly deepening surface lows. This is just what our models are forecasting too. A system that deep, in that locations, has been shown by many runs of the ECMWF and GFS (since the 7th at 8 pm). It is also supported by the ensemble means of both models. The Canadian model is also in agreement with a system that deep. The 8 pm from the 9th, ECMWF ensemble low locations are all well clustered just northeast of Lake Huron by 8 pm Monday with nearly all of those members (50) under 980 mb. Some of the members are as deep as 966 mb. If this all really happens, we may be looking at the possibly of widespread power outages

Another aspect of this storm is it does have strong Gulf of Mexico inflow that reaches into Lower Michigan Sunday into early Monday. The M-Climate return interval is well outside a once in a year return period. The 1000/850 moisture transport is aimed at Lower Michigan from Saturday night into early Monday morning. There is 40 to 50 knot low level jet aimed at Southwest Michigan early Sunday morning but the most dynamic period for this area will be Sunday night as primary surface low starts to really organize itself than track toward southeast Lower Michigan. The SPC SREF has a 10 pct chance of thunderstorms for most of Southwest Michigan early Monday morning. The storms would be elevated so there is not much threat for severe storms.

Heavy rain is possible depending the track, the GFS ensemble mean is giving GRR and MKG around 1.5 inches of rain. The ECMWF mean is closer to an inch. One way or the other this will be significant rainfall event.

Some snow is expected later Monday into Monday night but at this point this does not look to be to big of a snowfall event.

--Much cooler most of next week--

The longwave pattern changes with this system, putting the longwave trough near Michigan. This will keep a flow of Canadian polar air into our area from Monday into the following weekend. We will be significantly colder than normal most of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 139 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

While for the most part our TAF sites will be VFR we are still on the cyclonic side of the polar jet and the coldest air has yet to come across Southwest Michigan. Numerous snow showers are seen on the GRR 88D radar related to the instability with the cold air aloft. I see no reason to believe the snow showers will really come to an end until the polar jet axis comes overhead during the mid day hours of Friday (today). So for all of our TAF sites I have tempo IFR in snow showers till nearly sunrise. Then I have VCSH, during the time from 12z to 18z we still could have at least a few minutes of MVFR in snow showers at any of our TAF sites. The snow showers will end first at MKG (jet axis comes over there first). It may take until between 18z and 20z for the snow showers to be east of JXN. The air should be cold enough for snow showers all day. Skies should clear by 00z and winds will finally let up too.

MARINE. Issued at 331 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

We are dropping the Gale Warning and Lake Shore flood advisory in favor of Small Craft Advisory. The SCA will be in effect until 8 pm tonight. We may need gale or storm warnings for Monday but we will wait to address that issue.


HYDROLOGY. Issued at 331 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

Looking at Michigan stream flows from the USGS page, most of our streams are near normal for this time of year. The rainfall Sunday into Monday may present some local flooding issues but at this point we to not expect widespread river flooding from the event.


GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ037- 043-050-056-064-071.

LM . Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . WDM DISCUSSION . WDM AVIATION . WDM HYDROLOGY . WDM MARINE . WDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 35 mi59 min NNW 23 G 27 38°F 46°F1011.5 hPa31°F
45029 39 mi33 min 19 G 25 37°F 39°F6 ft1013.1 hPa28°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 47 mi43 min NW 18 G 21 37°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 52 mi33 min NNE 13 G 17 36°F 1013.5 hPa27°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Rapids, Gerald R. Ford International Airport, MI7 mi30 minWNW 12 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F25°F72%1011.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGRR

Wind History from GRR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W10W10W19
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1 day agoW5W7W7W8W5SW7SW7W8W7SW13W14
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2 days agoSE8SE6SE4S5S4S5SW9SW8S11
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NW5NW8W8NW13
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NW10NW10N6NW6NW3NW4NW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.