Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Caledonia, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:56AMSunset 5:10PM Thursday December 5, 2019 1:25 PM EST (18:25 UTC) Moonrise 2:11PMMoonset 1:02AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1105 Am Est Thu Dec 5 2019
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 10 knots backing south 10 to 15 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the day.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 knots veering southwest late at night, then veering northwest to 30 knots toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet toward daybreak.
Friday..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots veering east late at night, then veering south toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Cloudy. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:201912052200;;320555 FZUS53 KGRR 051605 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1105 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-052200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caledonia, MI
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location: 42.79, -85.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 051723 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1223 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 329 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

- Light snow is expected tonight along US-10; no impacts are anticipated.

- Friday and Saturday should be quiet with a good shot of sun during the latter.

- A period of cold temperatures and lake effect snow remains possible next week.

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Wednesday) Issued at 329 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

The large-scale pattern is largely unchanged from 24 hours ago with a trough across the east and ridge across the west enabling expansive northwest flow across the northern US. New features tonight are a wound up low pressure system in Nevada and a subtle shortwave along the central Canadian/US border embedded in the northwest flow. The latter feature is of most interest in the near- term.

As the ridge "portion" of the shortwave moves over the Great Lakes this afternoon, 850 mb temperatures will recover and the low-level stratus will scatter away. Mid-level moisture progs however look less promising with high clouds expected to develop by mid- afternoon. Highs today will be almost a spitting image of yesterday with mid 30s across central Lower Michigan and near 40 across the southwest. The trough "portion" of the shortwave will arrive after dark tonight anchored by a clipper system at the surface which is poised to track along the I-96 corridor from roughly midnight to daybreak. A dry air intrusion into the snow- growth layer will work against meaningful precipitation north of the low track, with progged low-level thermodynamic profiles suggesting low snow:water ratio snow grains are to be expected. As such, we're not expecting much more than a heavy dusting along US-10.

A punch of cold air in the wake of the trough will promote more low- level clouds during daylight hours Friday. However, as the upper- level pattern becomes more zonal Saturday, southwest low-level flow will kick our clouds away and give us the best chance to soak up the sun so far this month (and if we're being honest, in the coming week as well).

Sunday onward continues to look active as a cut-off low off the California coast is scooped up by a deepening trough diving out of western Canada. Whatever comes of those two features (combined or not) will swing through the Great Lakes around the Sunday night/Monday timeframe with blast of cold air and lake effect snow to follow Wednesday into Thursday. It's worth noting the 12Z mean 850 mb temperature at 12Z Wednesday came in around -20 C with an IQR of around 5 degrees signaling relatively high confidence in both the occurrence and anomalous magnitude of the cold air. With that said, there are still finer details to sort out for which we have plenty of time in the coming days.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

MVFR ceilings that were over most terminals this morning are trying to clear out from south to north. The I-94 terminals have lost the lower clouds for the most part, and should stay VFR until overnight. The I-96 terminals will likely lose the lower clouds for a bit, but they will move back in later this evening as a front moves into the area. There is a chance of a few flurries at the I-96 terminals overnight. These will be light enough and isolated enough that they are not worth mentioning in the forecast at this time. We will see the low clouds eventually mix/move out Fri. This will likely happen just after this forecast period.

MARINE. Issued at 329 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

Winds and waves will continue weakening today leading to relatively calm conditions on the waters of Lake Michigan. Another round of hazardous conditions to small crafts is possible Friday and again Saturday into Sunday. Conditions on Sunday may support minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion from Grand Haven northward.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . Borchardt DISCUSSION . Borchardt AVIATION . NJJ MARINE . Borchardt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 35 mi56 min SW 8 G 8.9 39°F 39°F1016.3 hPa31°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 47 mi46 min SSW 8.9 G 8.9 38°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 52 mi36 min W 5.1 G 7 37°F 1017.8 hPa28°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 69 mi86 min SW 5.1 G 6 42°F 1018.6 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Rapids, Gerald R. Ford International Airport, MI7 mi33 minSW 410.00 miOvercast38°F28°F68%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGRR

Wind History from GRR (wind in knots)
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W11W9NW11W11W8W9W7W10NW8NW8W7NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4
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2 days agoNE5NW6N4NW6N6NW64CalmCalmSE3W5SW4CalmSE3S4SW6S6S7SW9SW13SW12SW13SW12SW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.