Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Caledonia, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:19PM Friday December 6, 2019 4:56 AM CST (10:56 UTC) Moonrise 2:43PMMoonset 2:11AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 305 Am Cst Fri Dec 6 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm cst this afternoon...
Early this morning..North wind 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Today..North wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming 10 to 20 knots early in the afternoon backing northwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet early in the morning. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ645 Expires:201912062200;;929385 FZUS53 KMKX 060905 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-062200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caledonia, WI
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location: 42.8, -87.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 060848 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 248 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

SHORT TERM.

Today through Saturday . Forecast Confidence is Medium to High.

A weak clipper system rolled across northern Lake Michigan last evening. Cold air advection and associated low clouds were sinking southward overnight and have overspread all of southern WI. There are holes in the stratus, especially over portions of northeast WI, so there is some uncertainty in how long these clouds will hold. Winds are rather gusty with the cold air advection. The RAP is showing higher winds than what is actually happening, so I used a blend of RAP and CONSRaw to get winds in the ballpark.

The pressure gradient relaxes as high pressure noses into WI by midday. The low level lapse rates due to cold air advection should decrease as well, so there is a decent chance for skies to clear this afternoon. Despite clearing skies, high temperatures will only make it into the lower to mid 30s.

It will be a chilly night tonight with high pressure overhead and mainly clear skies to begin. Mid level clouds are expected to spread into southern WI overnight as some weak warm air advection resumes with return flow around the high.

With high pressure over the Ohio River Valley and low pressure approaching from the Northern Plains, a tightening pressure gradient will bring increasing southerly winds to southern Wisconsin and Lake Michigan Saturday afternoon. Cloud cover is a little uncertain for the day, as warm air advection and an approaching low oftentimes comes with clouds. Highs are expected to reach around 40, although there is chance for slightly warmer temps.

LONG TERM.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night . Forecast Confidence High .

Continued breezy conditions will keep temperatures on the warmer side Saturday night, with lows only falling into the low to mid 30s. That will set the stage for a warmish Sunday, with highs in the low to mid 40s, despite increasing cloud cover. Precip chances will increase through the afternoon into the evening, likely beginning in the form of patchy drizzle over the southeast, and expanding from there. A little snow will mix in at times north of I-94, especially toward Monday morning as colder air begins to arrive.

Monday and Tuesday . Moderate Confidence Regarding Snow, High Confidence in Temperatures .

The surface cold front will sweep through the region during the day Monday, with temperatures likely falling rapidly through the afternoon and especially into the evening hours. There looks to be a decent chance for most of the area to see a period of light snow Monday afternoon and evening, though uncertainty is higher than usual given some phasing issues in the model guidance with the mid level shortwaves.

Lows Monday night are expected to fall into the teens and single digits, with temps only recovering a couple of degrees during the day Tuesday. It will be quite breezy Monday night and Tuesday as well, resulting in wind chills around or below zero for much of the area.

Tuesday Night through Thursday Night . Forecast Confidence Moderate .

A reinforcing frontal boundary will pass through the area later Tuesday. Tuesday night through Wednesday night currently looks to be the coldest stretch, with overnight lows in the single digits below to single digits above zero, and daytime highs on Wednesday struggling to make it into the teens. Continued breezy conditions will result in wind chills between -10 and -20 late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Another wave may bring a round of precipitation to the Great Lakes/Midwest late in the workweek and/or heading into next weekend, though there is considerable uncertainty as to how this system will evolve.

AVIATION(09Z TAF Update).

Low clouds with ceilings around 2000 ft have overspread southern WI early this morning due to cold air advection in the wake of a weak clipper system. However, there is a hole in the clouds over northeast WI and it is expanding into southern WI. Not sure how long this clearing will last. Gusty northerly winds and these low clouds should persist through the morning hours and then weaken/clear up by early afternoon.

After a brief period of clear skies this afternoon and evening, mid level clouds are expected to sneak southward overnight. Increasing southerly winds and more mid level clouds will develop Saturday afternoon as another low pressure system approaches.

MARINE.

Gusty northwest winds in the wake of a cold front will diminish by early afternoon as high pressure noses into Wisconsin. Look for southerly winds to develop tonight and become strong Saturday afternoon and night. Gusts should reach gale force Saturday night through Sunday. There has been a consistent signal for this to occur, so a Gale Watch is in effect.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878.

Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for LMZ645- 646.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for LMZ643-644.



Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Cronce Saturday through Thursday . Boxell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 14 mi47 min NNW 15 G 18 34°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi57 min NNW 16 G 27 37°F 1016.9 hPa (+3.7)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 41 mi77 min NNW 6 G 14 32°F 1019.3 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N10
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1 day
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SW10
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W6
G17
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G13
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SW10
G15
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G12
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G16
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G18
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G15
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G16
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G14
SW9
G19
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G18
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G12
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G13
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G15
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G12
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G11
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G11
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G17
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G14
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G14
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G13
W7
G12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI6 mi64 minNNW 13 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F27°F72%1018.1 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI11 mi65 minNNW 15 G 2210.00 miA Few Clouds34°F26°F73%1018.1 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi64 minN 11 G 218.00 miOvercast39°F30°F73%1017.5 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI22 mi62 minNNW 15 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F26°F86%1017.9 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI23 mi62 minNNW 10 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F24°F75%1018.3 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI23 mi62 minN 13 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F28°F80%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRAC

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W4W3W3Calm--SE4S7S7S4SW7S5S5S4S4S4SW5SW7SW4W5W7NW7
G16
N11N13
G21
1 day agoW10
G20
W13W10
G19
W11
G20
W16
G24
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G32
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G29
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G25
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NW9NW9
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NW9W4W6W6W5W5W5W3W5W5
2 days agoSW10S8S9SW9SW10SW10SW9
G17
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G21
W11
G20
W9
G18
W10W6SW6W9W10W10W10
G17
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G18
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W12
G19
W11W6W10
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.