Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caledonia, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 7:52PM Saturday August 17, 2019 10:13 PM CDT (03:13 UTC) Moonrise 9:16PMMoonset 7:49AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 905 Pm Cdt Sat Aug 17 2019
Rest of tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering south after midnight, then rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..South wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then veering southwest early in the afternoon easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the afternoon, then subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering northwest early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..North wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ645 Expires:201908181000;;805323 FZUS53 KMKX 180206 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 905 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-181000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caledonia, WI
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location: 42.8, -87.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 180224
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
924 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019

Update
No major changes from earlier thinking regarding thunderstorm
strength and timing for the overnight. If anything, guidance has
come down a bit with the initial elevated, warm air advection
activity ahead of the main line of thunderstorms (currently
located across eastern south dakota and western minnesota). This
would effectively slow down the timing as well, with convection
perhaps not moving into the madison area until closer to 12z 7 am,
and solidly into the mid morning hours for the milwaukee metro.

Overall, believe that the current SPC outlook is well placed,
nicely capturing the instability gradient. The bulk of any severe
weather threat should be confined to southwestern wisconsin, with
just a few stronger storms possible further north and east.

Marine
Southeast winds tonight will become gusty from the south to
southwest on Sunday, with a few gusts across the northern half of
the lake to around 30 knots. Across the nearshore waters,
conditions will approach small craft advisory levels, but will
hold off on any advisory for now given uncertainties about how
morning thunderstorms will impact wind speeds.

Winds will become more westerly late Sunday as the main cold front
finally moves through. High pressure then builds into the area for
Monday.

Prev discussion (issued 629 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019)
update...

initial area of focus for convective development this evening will
be off to the southwest across eastern iowa, along the 850 mb
frontal zone. CU has been percolating there for a few hours now,
but have only seen a few transient showers thus far. A few stray
showers may affect areas south and west of madison later this
evening, but most of the area should remain dry until after
midnight.

At that point, focus shifts to a line of thunderstorms already
taking shape across the dakotas and western minnesota. Expect this
activity to push into the western parts of the forecast area
between midnight and 5 am, eventually moving east through the
entire region during the early to mid morning hours on Sunday.

Depending on the degree of organization when the thunderstorms
arrive, a few strong severe storms will be possible, with a threat
of gusty winds and large hail. The severe threat will be highest
along and west of the i-90 corridor.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

vfr should prevail this evening and the first part of the
overnight. Thunderstorms will then develop ahead of a cold front and
move into the area after midnight from the west southwest,
eventually affecting all terminals into the morning on Sunday.

Gusty winds and periods of ifr visibility can be expected with any
thunderstorms.

Southwest winds will then become gusty Sunday afternoon before the
actual surface front moves through. Some lower ceilings may linger
for a time behind the rain, but should lift back toVFR during the
afternoon. Winds will eventually shift to more of a westerly
direction late tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

Prev discussion... (issued 334 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019)
short term...

tonight and Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Weak moisture advection is setting off a few light showers over
the far southern CWA late this afternoon. These light showers
should continue for several hours before diminishing around 00z.

Can not rule out an isolated storm due to MUCAPE around 1k j kg.

Otherwise, quiet and dry conditions are expected for the bulk of
the evening. Low level moisture will increase later tonight as
precipitable water increases to 1.5 to 2". Short term guidance in
reasonable agreement on a strengthening low level jet developing
across ia mn area around 06z and spreading east into southern wi
by 12z. Similarly, a moderate mid-level short wave strengthening
over the sodak region is expected to move east and further
strengthen. This synoptic system will move across southern wi
during the same time period. Normally would go with widespread
high pops for this developing synoptic setting. However one caveat
is that the convection may develop along the warm front that
extends from northern ia into northern il overnight, which would
retard the heavier convection from spreading into southern wi.

Hence lower confidence for convection spreading into the northeast
cwa and held off on categorical pops in this area. Had enough
confidence to spread higher pops across more of the west late
tonight into early Sunday however. Synoptic lift moves off rapidly
to the east by later Sunday morning. Severe threat looks fairly
low with weak mid-level lapse rates. Also trended away from
higher low level winds depicted by outlier NAM guidance. Small
chance for showers and storms will continue Sunday afternoon as
lingering cold front moves through southern wi.

Long term...

Sunday night through Monday night... Forecast confidence is high.

A cold front will be pushing through Sunday evening which will
clear any rain and thunderstorms out of the area mainly before
midnight. Dry and cooler conditions then move in with overnight
lows dropping into the mid 50s to mid 60s. An area of high
pressure will then move in for Monday and bring with it sunny
skies and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Tuesday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Another 500mb shortwave trough will pass through Tuesday bringing
chances for rain and thunderstorms back to the area. There is
some uncertainty with the timing, placement and whether we are
able to break through the capping inversion. The best lift could
be provided by the cold front expected to push through Tuesday
evening. This would provide a better area of convergence for
thunderstorm development as there will be around 2,000 j kg of
instability available.

As the front pushes southeast rain chances will diminish and
allow an area of high pressure to move in with dry and cooler
conditions expected for the rest of the work week. Highs are
expected to be in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Saturday we'll have
to watch for a few showers and thunderstorms with an approaching
system, but confidence is too low at this time to include in the
forecast.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Boxell
tonight Sunday and aviation marine... Boxell
Sunday night through Saturday... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi73 min S 2.9 G 6 73°F 1011.2 hPa (-0.0)
45187 22 mi53 min S 3.9 G 5.8 78°F 73°F1 ft
45186 30 mi53 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 74°F 74°F1 ft
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 41 mi93 min E 1.9 G 4.1 71°F 1012.2 hPa
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 47 mi43 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 73°F 74°F1011.8 hPa71°F
45174 48 mi53 min S 5.8 G 7.8 74°F1 ft1009.4 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI6 mi20 minS 510.00 miFair73°F69°F87%1011.4 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI11 mi21 minS 510.00 miFair73°F66°F81%1010.8 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi20 minSE 38.00 miFair70°F69°F97%1011.1 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI22 mi38 minS 510.00 miFair68°F64°F88%1011.8 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI23 mi18 minS 410.00 miFair72°F62°F73%1011.5 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI23 mi18 minN 010.00 miFair65°F65°F100%1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRAC

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmCalmSW4W4SW3W4W5SW3W4W4CalmE9SE11
G18
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G22
S8SE5CalmS6S3S5
1 day agoCalmSW3CalmCalmSW3SW3SW4SW5S5S3S7S10S15
G21
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2 days agoNE10N11NE10NE7NE9N8N6N6NW6NW5N6NE7NE9N7N10N10
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.