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Marine Weather and Tides Salisbury, MA Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:10AM

Sunset 5:39PM

Friday March 5, 2021 2:24 PM EST (19:24 UTC)

Moonrise 1:18AM

Moonset 10:55AM

Illumination 54%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salisbury, MA

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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 051818 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 118 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

SYNOPSIS. Dry weather persists through the middle of next week. Colder than normal through the weekend. The pattern then moderates to warmer than normal conditions for the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

120 PM UPDATE .

* Mostly sunny but cold and blustery this afternoon *

Previous forecast matching up well with current observations including Satellite imagery. Temps continue to slowly rise into the low and mid 30s across CT/RI and Eastern MA, mid to upper 20s inland. Temps likely rise a few more degs before falling as sunset approaches. Mid/high clouds lifting/exiting northeast MA, yielding mostly sunny conditions. Although the stronger March sunshine is being offset by the anomalous cold airmass over the region, and blustery WNW winds 15-20 mph with occasional gusts up to 30-35 mph, strongest inland. This is yielding wind chills in the teens inland and 20s closer to the coast. Earlier discussion below.

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Per SPC mesoanalysis, core of cold air aloft stretches from Northeast PA into Lower Hudson Valley of NY eastward into CT/RI/MA, with 500 mb temps down to -32C to -33C! This is supporting a cold morning in progress (especially by early March standards) with temps slowly climbing thru the 20s. Feels colder given blustery NW winds 15-20 kt, gusting to 25-35 kt, yielding wind chills in the single digits and teens.

As expected, cold 850 mb temps today ranging from -12C to -14C across the region this afternoon. Model soundings support boundary layer mixing to almost this level, combined with downsloping WNW winds, these temps aloft will support highs 30-35 in the Coastal Plain including Boston, but highs only mid to upper 20s across the interior. These highs are about 10 degs below than normal, and it will feel colder given the blustery WNW winds.

Airmass is extremely dry with SPC mesoanalysis indicating PWATs down to a tenth of an inch. This is also reflective at the surface with subzero dew pts being observed across the area at 10 am. This will result in afternoon RH values in the 20 percent range. Hence, very dry airmass.

Mid/high clouds streaming across Northern MA into VT/NH and this is the result of slightly warmer airmass aloft (500 mb), ahead of the next reinforcing surge of colder air just across the border.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. Low pressure lingers over Eastern Canada into Saturday, maintaining a surface pressure gradient over Srn New England although diminished from the levels of today. There will also be lingering clouds from the cold pool aloft. But with continued dry air at the surface, expect dry weather through Saturday.

The wind may keep the air stirred tonight and prevent radiational cooling. With dew points in the single numbers, there should be room for temperatures to drop into the teens. Temps aloft will show similar values to today. Therefore will forecast similar max temps for Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Highlights .

* A chilly but pleasant Sunday with plentiful sunshine and light winds. * Warming trend begins Monday with highs in the 50s and possibly 60s Tuesday into Thursday away from the immediate coast.

Saturday night into Sunday .

A highly amplified H5 ridge that extends into the northern Canadian Prairies builds into the Great Lakes, helping to deepen the corresponding H5 trough over Eastern US. This development also helps to nudge the attendant upper closed low further east. On Saturday night, conditions look ideal for good radiational cooling thanks to diminishing winds, clear skies and remaining snow cover north and west of the I-95 corridor. Therefore, we lowered the low temperature on Saturday night to 10th percentile of guidance. On Sunday, 925mb temperatures moderate to between -7 to -9C. With mixing up to that level, expect highs in the 30s across most locations, except for upper 20s in the interior high terrain. With surface high pressure overhead, light winds and plentiful sunshine will make for a rather pleasant day on Sunday despite high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

Monday into Thursday .

The new work week looks to feature a transition into a +AO/+NAO/-PNA regime, which is favorable for a more significant and prolonged warm up. In fact, the AO is forecast to go highly positive, which is a strong signal for building warmth. Along with the lack of snow cover away from the interior and downsloping effect from strong southwesterly flow, blended model guidance will likely be a little too cool with the high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Lending further confidence to anomalous warmth during this period is that both the NAEFS and ENS Situational Ensemble Awareness Table show heights at all levels and 1000mb temperatures rising to 90th percentile for Tuesday and 97.5th to 99th percentile for Wednesday and Thursday. Given such a strong signal for temperatures to overperform, have used the 90th percentile of guidance for forecast highs, yielding low to mid 50s on Tuesday and upper 50s to low 60s for Wednesday away from the immediate coast. Low temperatures overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as well as overnight Wednesday into Thursday are also adjusted using the 75th percentile of guidance as warm air advection continues in earnest.

As for precipitation chances, a passing shortwave to our north could produce some showers on Tuesday but it is way too early to pinpoint the impacts and timing of any precipitation. Then on Thursday, a cold front passage could produce some showers but models still differ significantly on the timing of the frontal passage. Overall, a mainly dry forecast is in store through at least mid week.

An interesting tidbit is that this past meteorological winter has been notable for the lack of anomalous warmth, unlike the previous winter. All four of our climate sites have gone a considerable amount of time without exceeding 50F for high temperature. Boston and Providence last saw above 50F on January 16 2021, with highs of 52 and 55F respectively. Hartford and Worcester last saw above 50F on Christmas Day last year, with highs of 63 and 61F respectively. This run is likely to come to an end by Tuesday. In fact, the CPC has a 70 to 80 percent probability of above normal temperatures for Southern New England in its latest 6 to 10 day outlook. Talk about a taste of spring!

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

18z update .

VFR, dry and blustery WNW winds thru Sunday. Strongest winds will be this afternoon.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in TAF. VFR.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in TAF. VFR.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Tuesday/ .

Sunday night through Tuesday: VFR.

MARINE. Gusty northwest winds today with potential for 25 to 30 kt gusts. Winds diminish later tonight and Saturday with wind gusts Saturday around 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 feet on the outer waters today, subsiding to 5 foot seas on the southern outer waters Saturday.

Light freezing spray will a factor through Saturday. Favorable conditions include air temps around freezing, sea temps 35F to 40F, and strong gusty northwest winds.

Expect Small Craft Advisory conditions today and tonight, diminishing below that level on Saturday.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Saturday for ANZ231>235- 237-250-251. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Saturday for ANZ254>256.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Chai NEAR TERM . Nocera SHORT TERM . WTB LONG TERM . Chai AVIATION . Nocera/Chai MARINE . WTB/Chai

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH	15 mi	24 min	W 25 G 28	26°F			1002.8 hPa (-1.3)	-8°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH	17 mi	99 min	W 12	27°F			1004 hPa	7°F
44073	20 mi	140 min	WNW 18 G 23	26°F	40°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen	24 mi	80 min	W 19 G 25	29°F		3 ft	1003.3 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA	33 mi	34 min	W 16 G 23				1005 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf	33 mi	80 min			40°F	4 ft
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160)	34 mi	58 min			42°F	6 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA	34 mi	54 min		32°F	36°F		1003.7 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME	38 mi	54 min	WNW 13 G 22	26°F	38°F		1003.2 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME	39 mi	84 min	W 8.9	25°F				0°F

Wind History for Wells, ME

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1 AM

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4 AM

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Last 24hr

NW14 G22

NW15 G25

NW13 G21

NW14 G27

NW11 G20

NW14 G21

NW13 G20

NW9 G19

NW11 G18

NW8 G18

NW11 G15

NW9 G14

NW11 G16

NW9 G14

NW14 G19

NW11 G17

NW13 G20

NW14 G22

NW11 G18

NW12 G24

NW14 G21

NW10 G17

NW15 G20

NW10 G20

1 day ago

W12 G18

NW8 G16

NW7 G10

NW6

NW3

NW6 G12

NW8 G12

NW9 G16

NW3

NW5 G10

NW6 G10

NW6 G9

W2 G6

W3

NW3

NW11 G14

NW10 G14

NW8 G16

NW15 G23

NW14 G21

NW12 G18

NW16 G24

NW16 G22

W19 G27

2 days ago

NW18 G31

NW16 G30

NW16 G27

NW8 G16

NW11 G19

NW10 G19

W7 G17

W6 G13

W9 G13

NW9 G14

NW7 G12

SW7

W5 G11

SW4 G10

SW5 G10

SW9 G12

W3

W3 G7

W4 G10

W5 G10

W5 G11

W11 G20

W11 G18

NW13 G21

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA	17 mi	30 min	WNW 11 G 23	10.00 mi	Fair	31°F	-3°F	23%	1004.7 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA	17 mi	31 min	WNW 11	10.00 mi	Fair	32°F	-8°F	17%	1003.7 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH	19 mi	88 min	WNW 10 G 20	10.00 mi	Overcast	25°F	-6°F	26%	1004 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBVY

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

NW12 G21

W15 G26

W11 G25

NW14 G25

NW16 G23

NW12 G22

NW10 G18

NW17 G27

NW15 G22

NW15 G27

NW18 G29

NW19 G30

NW18 G30

NW15 G24

NW16 G26

NW17 G25

NW16 G26

NW13 G24

NW15 G27

NW15 G25

W14 G20

W16 G25

NW13 G23

NW11

1 day ago

W11 G17

W9

NW8

NW6

NW5

W5

W7

W4

NW4

NW6

NW5

Calm

NW4

N5

Calm

NW3

NW5

NW8

NW16 G21

NW15 G26

NW14 G24

W16 G22

W16 G23

W17 G25

2 days ago

NW21 G33

NW17 G30

W14 G24

NW12 G18

W15 G22

W8 G16

W11 G17

W10

Calm

W5

SW6

SW8

SW8

SW9

SW7

SW8

SW8

SW8

W8

W9 G16

NW10 G16

W12 G17

NW11

W8

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Tide / Current Tables for Merrimack River Entrance, Massachusetts (2)

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Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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