Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lackawanna, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A sharp mid level trough along with a surface trough will move southeast across the Lower Great Lakes this evening, veering the boundary layer flow to the northwest. Lake induced equilibrium levels will briefly rise to around 10K feet just ahead of the trough in response to increasing large scale ascent, lower temperatures aloft, and improved synoptic scale moisture. Inversion heights begin to drop again tonight following the trough passage.

Off Lake Erie...

A trough passage will push lake snows to the south across the western Southern Tier. Lake effect snow will adjust to the new northwest wind direction and develop again in the form of upslope snow from the Boston Hills southward to the Chautauqua Ridge. An upstream connection to Lake Huron will also develop overnight and meander across the western Southern Tier, locally enhancing snowfall rates.

Wednesday, the northwest upslope flow will continue, along with local enhancement from the Lake Huron connection. Snowfall rates overnight through Wednesday will be much lower than they are today given the shorter fetch and overall less favorable setup.

Wednesday afternoon, boundary layer flow will begin to back to the west, carrying lake effect snow showers northward from the Southern Tier back into southern Erie and Wyoming counties. Boundary layer flow will continue to back to the southwest Wednesday night, carrying lake effect snow northward across the Buffalo Metro area overnight. Inversion heights continue to lower, and synoptic scale moisture is very limited. This, combined with the rapid northward movement should keep accumulations limited to 1-2 inches as the band sweeps north across the area.

Additional accumulations from early this afternoon through the end of the event will be 6-12" from the Boston Hills and western Wyoming County southward along the Chautauqua Ridge, with light amounts elsewhere.

Lake Ontario...

The passage of a trough and associated veering boundary layer flow will carry lake effect snow south and west into portions of Wayne and Cayuga counties through the overnight. The band should weaken overnight across Wayne and Cayuga counties. Farther west, some lake effect snow will also move into areas south of Lake Ontario from Rochester westward, possibly enhanced by a Georgian Bay band late tonight and Wednesday morning.

Wednesday, multiple bands will continue southeast of the lake, especially from just east of Rochester into Wayne County and southward into the Finger Lakes. Later Wednesday afternoon and evening, boundary layer flow will begin to back to the west. This should allow lake effect snow to consolidate back into a single band over northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga County.

This band will then move steadily northeast across Oswego County during the evening, reaching the Jefferson County shoreline up to Watertown by late Wednesday night as boundary layer flow continues to back to the southwest. This band of snow may produce another 2-4" during its trek east and the north along the shoreline. This type of anticyclonically curved band within a passing low level ridge axis typically drop their heaviest snow close to the lakeshore, with little inland extent.

Additional accumulations through Wednesday afternoon will be 5-10 inches from the southern Tug Hill Plateau across Oswego County, and 4-8" across northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga counties. Farther west, expect a spotty 1-3" from the Rochester area westward across Orleans and eastern Niagara counties.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Ongoing lake effect snows will continue to march northward Thursday morning as wind flow backs to 200-220 degrees across the lakes
Add to that
lake parameters will become unfavorable with increasing shear, falling eq-levels, and depleting moisture. So this all spells a brief break in lake snows but 'not' active weather. A vigourous shortwave dropping across the upper Great lakes will then bring our next chance for some 'light' accumulating snows Thursday afternoon and through the evening. Nothing significant with a general 1 to 2" possible for most locales...but areas just east of both lakes will see some lake enhancement with up to 3 to 4" (Chautauqua ridge and the Tug Hill region).

After that...weak sfc ridge noses in over the eastern Great Lakes and will bring drier weather for Friday through Friday night. With that...southerly flow develops over the region inducing a brief warming trend (temps rising into the 30s). This doesn't last long though...a potent shortwave and 'ARCTIC' cold front will near the eastern Great Lakes Saturday, which will bring increasing chances for some widespread snow
After that
there is some uncertainty heading into Sunday with how fast the front marches east, and also a few waves potentially tracking along this frontal boundary. What is certain...all medium range guidance advertise what looks like some of the coldest air arriving across the Lower Lakes this winter season (H850 T's -23C to -26C). More on that in the Long Term disco.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
...BITTERLY COLD, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OFF BOTH LAKES...

While there remains a great deal of details to work out, there is no question that it will 'likely' become bitterly cold. Highs both Monday and Tuesday will be found in the low teens and even the single digits
Given some winds anticipated
wind chill values will more than 'likely' be found easily below zero.

Now for the fun...given how cold the airmass will be there will be some accumulating lake effect snows off both lakes
How much
way to early at this point to get into the specifics but the signals are there
One thing to think about
with the anticipated 'ARCTIC' airmass it will potentially begin the process of freezing up the lakes. This will especially be the case for Lake Erie. Side note...Lake Erie didn't freeze last year (2024).

AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Overnight through Wednesday, boundary layer flow will become northwest, directing weaker lake effect snow southeast of the lakes with areas of IFR/LIFR. Lake effect snow off Lake Ontario will be across the western Southern Tier including KJHW at times. Lake effect off Lake Ontario will spread out southeast of the lake from near KROC to KFZY and southward into the Finger Lakes. Outside of the main lake effect areas, expect areas of MVFR CIGS and light flurries.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Lake effect snow east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will move northward overnight, with local IFR.
Thursday.. MVFR/IFR with an area of general light snow moving across the area, and lake enhancement east of the lakes.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a small chance of snow showers.
Saturday.. MVFR/IFR with snow showers likely, possibly mixed with rain across lower elevations.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

MARINE
Strong westerlies will continue this evening with high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will become northwest overnight and Wednesday behind a trough and start to diminish. Small Craft Advisory conditions may briefly end Wednesday afternoon, but winds will quickly increase again Wednesday night through Thursday as another trough crosses the eastern Great Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ004-005.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ006.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ012- 019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042-045.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ043- 044.