Sunday, February23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lackawanna, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 5:57PM Sunday February 23, 2020 1:16 PM EST (18:16 UTC) Moonrise 7:25AMMoonset 5:59PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 336 Am Est Sun Feb 23 2020
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Partly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Monday night..Light and variable winds becoming northeast around 10 knots. Rain and snow likely overnight.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. Rain likely.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Rain.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely. The water temperature off buffalo is 33 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:202002231630;;959960 FZUS51 KBUF 230836 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 336 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-231630-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lackawanna, NY
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location: 42.82, -78.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 231718 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1218 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. A broad area of high pressure along the Carolina coastline will bring fair weather with above normal temperatures through Monday. A series of slow moving low pressure systems will bring a prolonged period of unsettled weather with periods of mixed rain and snow Monday night through Wednesday followed by a colder temperatures Thursday and Friday with increasing chances for accumulating lake effect snow.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Broad high pressure across the southeastern coast will ridge northward into the mid-Atlantic states and provide fair weather through Monday. Mid and high clouds across Central New York will slide to the eastward during this afternoon. Meanwhile, ongoing low level warm air advection within a south- southwest return flow will result in favorable downslope conditions and allow temperatures to climb into the upper 40s to around 50 this afternoon.

A shortwave will pass well to the north tonight, which will cause an increase in cloud cover. Meanwhile, there will continue to be a southwesterly flow which will keep temperatures from dropping off too much. Low temperatures will mainly be in the mid to upper 30s across the lake plains, and around freezing inland.

A weak cold front will approach from the north on Monday, but will wash out across Western New York during the day. A southwesterly flow ahead of this will bring increasing low moisture which should eventually result in a fairly solid cloud cover by late Monday afternoon. However, timing the development of the stratus is difficult, and there could turn out to be a fair amount of sunshine Monday morning before it moves in. This will impact temperatures (more sun would allow for warmer weather), but any showers will hold off until Monday night. Highs on Monday will mainly be in the 40s, but it could be a few degrees warmer if sunshine lasts into the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Monday night, weak surface low pressure near the confluence of the Ohio-Mississippi river will nudge a warm front northward towards the Lower Lakes overnight. Increasing moisture and isentropic lift supported by a 20-25 knot LLJ will bring about increasing chances for some light precipitation. In terms of p-type, the most likely scenario will be that precipitation starts as just rain. As the atmospheric column cools snow will then mix in with some minor accumulations overnight. In terms of temperatures, lows will generally be found in the 30s across Western NY and the Finger Lakes region. East of Lake Ontario look for lows in the upper 20s.

Tuesday, broad low pressure will slowly track northward while continuing to pivot its warm front north up across the eastern Great Lakes. This will continue to support widespread light precipitation across the region. As the warm front tracks across the region weak warm air advection will gradually transition p-type mainly over to all rain. It will also nudge temperatures into the low to mid 40s for most locations.

Tuesday night, broad surface low will be in the initial stages of re- energizing as shortwave energy and a jet streak round the base of the mid-level low over the Upper Midwest. While this occurs, our region will remain in the warm advection regime with a continued influx of moisture. This should keep light precipitation going across the area. However, there may be a break late in the night into Wednesday. This will all depend upon how well the warm sector of the system becomes established. In terms of temperatures, lows will range from the low 30s east of Lake Ontario into the mid and upper 30s elsewhere.

Wednesday, deepening surface low pressure then slowly tracks by to our west and northwest. While this occurs it will send a strengthening cold front across the region with progressively colder air pushing into our region following its passage. cold air advection on the backside will drive temperatures back down to the lower to mid 30s by the end of Wednesday night. This will transition p-type from rain over to snow. It will also encourage lake effect snows-enhancement with accumulations likely by Thursday. Otherwise, highs on Wednesday will peak in the 40s out ahead of the cold front. Lows by daybreak Thursday will range from the upper 20s to low to mid 30s as colder air deepens across the region.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. On Thursday a cyclonic flow of colder air will continue to deepen across our region . with 850 mb temps dropping to between -12C and -14C Within this environment. lingering wraparound moisture will promote the likelihood of some light snow pretty much everywhere . with enhancement from favorable orographics and developing lake effect helping to promote at least somewhat better organized snows east of both lakes. Otherwise temperatures will continue to slowly fall given the ongoing cold air advection . with readings mostly dropping off into the 20s by late in the day. Coupled with brisk west winds . this will result in wind chills dipping into the teens.

Cold air advection will continue Thursday night with cooling temperatures aloft. 850H temperatures will cool to the -15C to -20C range through the end of the week and into Saturday. Synoptic moisture behind the exiting area of low pressure, combined with the cold air advection will transition any synoptic snow earlier to lake enhanced snow and then to lake effect snow. With a northwest flow regime over the area, the best chance for lake snows will be southeast of both lakes.

In addition to the lake effect potential, periods of widespread snow showers will be possible with the large upper and mid level trough over the area for Friday and Saturday. Some increased snow coverage will be possible as a few shortwave troughs move over the area.

Temperatures will be cold with highs in the low to mid 20s, with a few readings in the teens possible over the higher terrain. Temperatures will cool each night with most of the area in the low to upper teens, except the north country where it will cool to near zero by Saturday night.

Beyond the long term timeframe, temperatures do look like they will rebound some for the start of the first work week of March.

AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Widespread VFR flight conditions expected through 09Z Monday with some patchy mid and high level clouds. LLWS possible at KROC when surface winds decouple tonight.

Increasing low level moisture will eventually result in stratus developing on Monday, but timing this is challenging. NAM forecast soundings are often overdone, however a persistent moist flow and lowering inversion heights will eventually support an MVFR cloud deck. Slowing down the NAM by 3-6 hours would bring this in to most TAF sites late Monday morning, but a bit earlier at KJHW.

Outlook . Monday afternoon . Mainly MVFR in stratus. Monday night . MVFR with rain showers likely. Tuesday . MVFR to IFR in scattered rain showers. Wednesday . MVFR to IFR with rain or snow. Thursday and Friday . MVFR to IFR with lake effect snow.

MARINE. A moderate south-southwest flow will produce choppy conditions near the north shores of Lake Erie and Ontario through tonight, but are not expected to meet small craft criteria in our waters. Expect a modest flow Monday and Monday night with no marine headlines anticipated. An increasing northeasterly flow on Tuesday may require small craft headlines along the south shores of Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/TMA NEAR TERM . Apffel SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . JJR/SW AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 5 mi46 min WSW 12 G 13 39°F 34°F1017.7 hPa12°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 15 mi46 min 38°F 1017.3 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 21 mi46 min 40°F 1017.3 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 36 mi76 min WSW 14 G 15 39°F 1018 hPa (-1.7)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 36 mi76 min WSW 13 G 19 44°F 1018.3 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY10 mi22 minWSW 15 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F17°F33%1017.3 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY21 mi23 minSW 19 G 2410.00 miFair and Breezy43°F19°F40%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW26
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2 days agoNW7W11W10W11
G16
W7NW9W8W7W11W10W9W8W6SW5W6W5W8W10W9W11SW15
G26
SW21
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SW21
G30
SW19
G28

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.