Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:55PM Thursday July 29, 2021 12:43 PM EDT (16:43 UTC) Moonrise 11:06PMMoonset 11:13AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 953 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters... The areas affected include... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... At 952 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near st. Clair to 11 nm north of algonac to near new baltimore, moving southeast at 25 knots. Strong Thunderstorms will be near, st. Clair around 1000 am edt. St clair flats old channel light around 1020 am edt. Algonac around 1025 am edt. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, lightning strikes, and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4289 8247 4280 8248 4276 8247 4267 8251 4262 8252 4255 8259 4255 8264 4250 8270 4266 8283 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4265 8257 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8252 4293 8250 4297 8242
LCZ422 Expires:202107291500;;644127 FZUS73 KDTX 291353 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 953 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 LCZ422-460-291500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair, MI
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location: 42.82, -82.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 291421 AAA AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1021 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

UPDATE.

As of 1020 AM EDT . Morning convection associated with leftover MCS complex that tracked southeast from Wisconsin last night continues to drift southeast away from the region late this morning. Southeast Michigan was largely spared from the worst of the impacts as the better instability gradient remained more to the southwest, although thunderstorms were able to fire across portions of the Thumb and eventually into northern portions of the Detroit metro bringing a quick half inch to a little over an inch of rain. The Flash Flood Watch is no longer in effect as the heavy rain threat has ended in the greater Detroit metro region.

For the remainder of today, it will continue to be humid as dewpoints stubbornly remain in the upper 60s to around 70 as the lingering frontal boundary slowly drifts southeast as a cold front from northern Lower into the afternoon hours. Brief window of relative clearing skies will signal a window for dry weather into the early afternoon hours as a subsidence bubble in the wake of the morning convection moves through. Water vapor imagery depicts a shearing out weak midlevel wave that will move across Lake Huron mid/late afternoon that may spark some widely scattered showers and a few storms mainly across the Thumb as the front swings through before more substantial drier air moves in by later this evening characterized by clearing skies and lower 850 hPa dewpoints. High temps top out in the lower 80s for most.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 713 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

AVIATION .

As the window for organized thunderstorms closes, the aviation forecast trends to MVFR ceiling between the departing storms and the cold front. Once the current showers move past FNT and PTK, a few showers or stray thunderstorms remain possible as the cold front moves through SE MI but with coverage and timing better suited for inclusion in later updates. Early morning satellite imagery shows high clouds clearing eastward and revealing expansion of low clouds over western Lower MI. These fill in eastward into our area in the warm sector of the surface low tracking through central Lower MI. The cold front follows and sweeps through around mid afternoon. Ceiling then lifts into VFR with the help of peak daytime surface heating on a cooler and less humid air mass. A clearing trend follows toward evening with due northerly wind picking up some clouds from Lake Huron during the night with the best chance of any ceiling restriction occurring east of the terminal corridor through sunrise Friday.

For DTW . MVFR ceiling during the morning becomes VFR below 5000 ft this afternoon as a cold front moves through the DTW area. Northerly wind trailing the front requires a shift to north traffic operations by late afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less today.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

DISCUSSION .

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for urban type flooding potential across the Metro Detroit region through 10 am as a complex of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall moves Lower Michigan this morning.

At the surface a warm frontal zone is draped from north/central WI southeast through central lower MI and into Ohio. Early night strong convection tracked more NNW to SSE feeding on the the strong instability in southern WI into northern IL. Will be watching for greater development that will drive southeastward ahead of the surface reflection as it moves into western MI. The low level jet of 30-35 kts will also be moving over southern Lake MI in west/southwest Michigan helping support stronger convection. Late night trends leaning towards this event ending up as more of a heavy rainfall threat than a damaging wind threat, as the greater threat will stay to the west and southwest of southeast Michigan. However, there will still be potential for some isolated to scattered damaging winds through the early morning with the warm front still hanging around. A Marginal/Slight Risk still in place through 12Z across most of the CWA seems appropriate still.

Timing of the strongest convection into southeast Michigan still expected within the 08-012Z time frame in conjunction with the arrival and progression of the low level jet this morning. High moisture content will accompany this system. Upstream 00Z RAOBs last evening picked up PWATs around 1.50 to 1.75 inches. Latest RAP forecast still has PWATs at 1.75 to just over 2.00 inches over southeast Michigan by 12Z. The high degree of moisture should bring potential for high rainfall rates during the aforementioned time frame as well as any development associated with a surface low as it drifts into central MI later in the morning.

This morning still carries some degree of uncertainty with regards to intensity and/or coverage of both the lead convection as well as any trailing convection. At press time, heaviest rainfall is moving southwest of the CWA with elevated convection rippling off the front across central MI and into the Saginaw Valley. There will be a bookend vortex forecast to move into central Michigan and result in slower moving and training convection producing heavy rainfall. This feature will be what likely brings the potential for 1-3 inches of rainfall across Lower Michigan through the morning hours. There is a scenario where heaviest rainfall just grazes the southwest portions of the CWA.

By the afternoon the main complex will push south of the state. Lower level cold air advection behind the system with surface height rises moving in from the northwest will result in temperatures cooling off and clearing skies. Pleasant weather expected for Friday with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s and much less humid conditions as dewpoints fall into the 50s. Mostly stable conditions hold through Saturday morning until broad cyclonic flow aloft ushers in the next shortwave diving out of Ontario directly and over the central Great Lakes. This will be the next chances for rainfall. Timing appears to be late Saturday into Sunday.

After a slightly warmup on Saturday towards the upper 70s before a reinforcing shot of cooler air settles back into the region by late Sunday. This will be the result of broad troughing over taking the eastern half of the CONUS the early to mid next week. Forecast high temperatures to start next week back fall back into the low 70s. Overall rain chances should be limited given the deeper moisture will be pushed back towards the Gulf Coast states. Any rainfall chances will be governed by the evolution of shortwaves within the cyclonic flow and the eventual breakdown of the trough into late next week.

MARINE .

A thunderstorm complex and associated low pressure move through the central Great Lakes this morning with heavy rainfall and scattered strong to severe wind gusts in excess of 50 kt possible, especially across southern Lake Huron, Lake St. Clair, and western Lake Erie. The cold front follows by midday with the bulk of the showers/storms moving out and cooler northwest wind ensuing through the day. A secondary backdoor cold front drops southward across Lake Huron late tonight with winds veering to northeast and increasing to 20-25 kt Friday morning. This will lead to a growing wave field over southern Lake Huron with Small Craft Advisories likely becoming needed around the Thumb late overnight through Friday morning. High pressure then builds in from the west late Friday with lighter northerly flow backing to the northwest.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Friday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

UPDATE . IRL AVIATION . BT DISCUSSION . AA MARINE . TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 11 mi55 min 83°F 1008 hPa
AGCM4 14 mi55 min 82°F 73°F1009.3 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair 29 mi43 min W 9.7 G 12 78°F 74°F1 ft1008.8 hPa (-0.0)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 32 mi43 min W 8.9 G 14 81°F 1010.2 hPa (+0.4)
PSCM4 42 mi43 min N 8 G 8.9 75°F 1027.1 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI8 mi48 minNW 10 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F70°F70%1009.5 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI24 mi47 minWSW 13 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F73°F69%1009.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

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Last 24hrN5N5NE4N7NE4N5N4CalmCalmSE4S3CalmS3S4SE3S3S5S3S3CalmCalmCalmW8NW8
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1 day agoW9W6W4NW5W5W5N3N3N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4Calm
2 days agoNW6NW7W7W6NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W3W4W3W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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