Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:25PM Saturday January 18, 2020 7:18 PM EST (00:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:43AMMoonset 12:43PM Illumination 37% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0067.000000t0000z-191230t1300z/ 754 Am Est Mon Dec 30 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 800 am est... The affected areas were... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... The showers have moved out of the area. Lat...lon 4289 8247 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4238 8282 4236 8286 4239 8294 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4265 8255 4276 8251 4289 8252 4302 8244 4297 8241 time...mot...loc 1254z 216deg 43kt 4352 8232 4307 8173
LCZ422 Expires:201912301304;;156663 FZUS73 KDTX 301254 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 754 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 LCZ422-460-301304-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair, MI
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location: 42.82, -82.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 182327 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 627 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

AVIATION.

A strong and cold westerly wind will govern conditions tonight. This environment will encourage the downstream flux of lake Michigan moisture, translating into a scattered to numerous coverage of light snow showers. Periodic bursts of heavier snow showers will be possible, particularly during the early portion of the night. Any such activity will lead to brief IFR level visibility restrictions, with potential for a quick accumulation. Outside of snow showers, prevailing MVFR conditions within an extensive low stratus canopy. Gusty westerly conditions will persist throughout the night, reaching 30 to 35 knots at times. A cold front advancing south across the area will provide a secondary focus for snow shower development on Sunday. Outgoing forecast highlights the most likely window during the daylight period to witness a period of accumulating snow and accompanying visibility restrictions. Winds becoming north-northwesterly and diminishing in the wake of this boundary.

For DTW . Favorable environment exists early tonight for periodic lake effect snow showers or flurries to track near DTW. The airport likely resides within the southern periphery of the main corridor of activity, casting some doubt as to the potential for heavier snow showers to directly impact the terminal. Will continue to highlight the most likely window for meaningful activity, centered 02z-05z. Westerly winds will continue to gust within the 30 to 35 knot range well into the night.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceilings under 5000 feet through Sunday.

* High in precipitation type as snow through Sunday.

* Moderate in exceeding crosswind threshold from 250-270 degrees tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 254 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

DISCUSSION .

A region of rain showers, mixed with some snow and sleet at times, now advancing across the forecast area is tied to the mid level trough axis associated with the upper low over western Upper Mi. This upper low will move east and become absorbed back into the mean flow, with the associated surface low tracking across north central Lower Mi and central Lake Huron this evening. The attendant surface cold front will traverse Se Mi shortly after forecast issuance time. Post frontal cold air advection will steepen the low level lapse rates, allowing better mixing of the strong wind fields aloft. Regional observations have shown wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots from Iowa into central Indiana, where post frontal downward momentum transport is stronger. The wind potential across Se Mi appears as though it will be more contingent on the growth of the mixed layer through cold air advection. With model soundings showing 40 knots at the top of the mixed layer, peak wind gusts tonight in the 30 to 40 MPH range (just below advisory) seem warranted.

Afternoon temps have risen well into the 30s ahead of the approaching cold front. Post frontal cold air advection will result in a steady drop in temps tonight, with temps falling into the upper 20s by late evening and low 20s/teens by daybreak Sunday. This of course will lead to the freezing of any standing water/slush on paved surfaces. The presence of deep wrap around moisture and cyclonic flow will support snow shower activity through the night, enhanced by the moisture flux off Lake Mi in westerly flow. A secondary mid level short wave impulse is forecast to rotate across Lower Mi late tonight/early Sun morning, which will support some enhancement to the snow shower activity. A secondary sfc cold front is forecast to move from north to south across the forecast area on Sunday (14Z to 22Z) in the wake of this mid level short wave. Enhanced boundary layer convergence, steep low level lapse rates and ample moisture (super saturated with respect to ice) within the convective cloud layer suggests a chance for some higher intensity snow showers affecting the area with this secondary cold front. The combined affects of the snow showers both tonight and Sunday will likely drop another inch or two of snow across the area. Even with the steepening of the daytime mixed layer, the cold airmass across the region on Sunday will hold daytime temps in the 20s with wind chill readings in the single digits and teens.

A much drier airmass will reside across Se Mi Sun night through early next week. There is reasonable agreement among the model solutions in showing a positive pv anomaly diving from the northern plains into the deep south Mon into Tuesday with enhanced mid level ridging expanding into the Great Lakes region, thus keeping weather conditions rather benign across the Great Lakes. With the polar low drifting north and a quasi zonal flow set to take shape across NOAM, a return of mild January weather looks in store for the end of the forecast period.

MARINE .

Deepening low pressure will track across central Lake Huron this evening. The low will drive much colder air across the lakes. Based on the track of the low, winds across central and northern Lake Huron will actually decrease this evening. Meanwhile, across the south half of the lake, winds will veer to the west southwest this evening with a few gusts exceeding gale force. North-northeast winds will develop on the north third of the lake as the low passes through this evening. A trailing cold front will then be forced south across the lake overnight into Sunday morning, with winds turning north-northwest in the wake of the front. The post frontal gradient will be weakening, so wind speeds/gusts will actually decrease slightly tonight into Sunday morning.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ063-070.

Lake Huron . Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair . Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for LEZ444.

Low Water Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for LEZ444.



AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . SC MARINE . SC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 11 mi49 min 35°F 1000.9 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 13 mi49 min W 19 G 29 36°F 1000.6 hPa30°F
AGCM4 14 mi49 min 36°F 35°F1001.9 hPa
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 32 mi39 min WSW 15 36°F 1003.7 hPa
PSCM4 42 mi79 min WSW 15 G 24 35°F 1016.9 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SE9
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NW14
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SW3
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G24
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G18
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G17
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G20

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI8 mi84 minWSW 10 G 1910.00 miOvercast37°F32°F81%1000.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI24 mi2.4 hrsWSW 17 G 267.00 miLight Rain39°F38°F100%1000.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E6E5E7E8E5E9E11
G16
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1 day agoNW12
G20
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N11
G20
NW9
G16
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NW9NW9NW7NW8NW5NW6NW4N6E4SE5S3S4E4SE6SE6SE8SE6
2 days agoSE3CalmCalmW4W4W9W9
G15
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G14
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G17
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NW7W8
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W7W9
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G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.