Friday, September20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:32PM Friday September 20, 2019 9:27 PM EDT (01:27 UTC) Moonrise 10:12PMMoonset 12:26PM Illumination 56% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0058.000000t0000z-190913t2215z/ 604 Pm Edt Fri Sep 13 2019
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However, additional Thunderstorm may pose a threat as they move into the area from the west this evening. A severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 pm edt for southeastern michigan...the adjacent waters of lake huron...and the adjacent waters of lake st. Clair. Lat...lon 4294 8244 4289 8247 4279 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4250 8270 4259 8284 4266 8285 4272 8269 4269 8260 4266 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8252 4297 8248 4301 8242 time...mot...loc 2202z 228deg 55kt 4286 8231
LCZ422 Expires:201909132213;;745096 FZUS73 KDTX 132204 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 604 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 LCZ422-460-132213-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair, MI
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location: 42.82, -82.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 202308
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
708 pm edt Fri sep 20 2019

Aviation
Se michigan remains between high pressure over the mid atlantic
coast and a low pressure system developing over the plains tonight.

Cloud moisture remains minimal to start the night but then gradually
increases between the systems toward sunrise. Southwest surface wind
helps lift humidity but remains just light enough to allow some MVFR
fog during early morning before clouds become a factor. Southwest
wind increases and accelerates moisture transport from the gulf
coast and mississippi valley during Saturday helping to thicken and
lower clouds with a few showers possible during the afternoon.

Ceiling and visibility remainVFR but trending below 5000 ft toward
Saturday evening.

For dtw... Mixed coverage of mid and high clouds produceVFR above
5000 ft tonight through Saturday morning. Southwest wind also
remains light enough for some shallow fog in the MVFR range but
increasing clouds toward sunrise likely to keep fog from slipping
into ifr.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft.

Prev discussion
Issued at 343 pm edt Fri sep 20 2019
discussion...

aside from a few brief sprinkles that survived through expansive low-
level dry air this morning between i-69 and us-10, high pressure
still maintains control over the region a while longer. Goes-16
water vapor imagery depicts a corridor of midlevel clouds along a
subtle shortwave with varying coverage expected through tonight.

Temperatures are approaching daytime highs, generally in the lower
80s which continues a stretch of above normal warmth with overnight
lows a bit higher than the previous night due to high cloud
insolation effects.

Ridge axis aloft will begin translating eastward on Saturday as a
longwave feature over the western CONUS deepens and tilts
northeastward into the midwest. Meanwhile, winds will reorient in
the lower levels as a midlevel circulation sets up aloft. Moisture
advection will also be ramping up extensively with isentropic lift
becoming a significant factor along the southern half of the cwa
early on Saturday. Pw values will increase by nearly 75 percent come
Saturday afternoon with some solutions suggesting pw values
approaching 2.00 inches as a 0-3 km MAX thetae axis of 348 k works
across the region. There is the potential for some Saturday
afternoon thunderstorms, but given the limited shear environment the
severe threat remains low with mostly just ordinary single-cell
storms. Heavy downpours will be likely in this moisture rich
environment, but the coverage and duration of this activity depends
on how efficiently the low-level capping inversion erodes. Certainly
worth noting that a plethora of forecast soundings are showing tall
skinny CAPE profiles across the CWA while plan view guidance varies
widely on the strength and distribution of the best mlcape
environments.

Attention then turns to the approaching dynamic cold front beginning
late Saturday night. This boundary will be quite the rainmaker with
qpf around 1 inch for most of the cwa, but locally higher values
cannot be ruled out. Given the impressive deep-layer saturation 950-
350 mb , this moisture laden atmosphere will is placed precariously
ahead of the front. Confidence is high for an extended period of
showers and occasional embedded thunder as the front bisects SE mi
late Sunday evening. 00-06z is the most likely time period for the
heaviest rainfall which aligns with the best LLJ enhancement
925 mb winds around 30 knots with multiple reinforcing shortwaves
before and after the front triggering additional showers. Dewpoints
will start to fall behind the front as dry air advection fills in,
but cloud cover will be slow to erode.

Deformation showers should be quickly tapering off early Monday as
mid level dry slot reaches at least as far north as the m-59
corridor. Mid level circulation cold pool (-2 to -3 c at 700 mb)
will be tracking through the northern great lakes during the day,
with northwest upper level confluent flow building in for Monday
night. 500 mb ridge axis moves over the central great lakes on
Tuesday, helping to dry things out from the heavy rain during the
second half of the weekend.

Digging upper level trough coming out of western canada will then
bring another cold front and chance of showers on Wednesday.

Somewhat cooler post frontal conditions behind the front on
Thursday, but there is a wide disparity amongst the cooler canadian
(850 mb temps in mid single numbers) vs the much warmer european
(850 mb temps around 15 c). The differences are clearly evident in
the 500 mb 6 hr height changes as well, with the canadian much more
aggressive and farther south. The GFS is sort of in the middle, thus
a forecast close to normal is probably best way to go for now.

Marine...

high pressure over he eastern great lakes will give way to an
approaching cold front later in the weekend. Southerly winds will
steadily increase late on Saturday and especially into Sunday as the
pressure gradient tightens over the region.

Probabilities for wind gusts to exceed southwesterly 20 knots over
northern marine areas are relatively small for the weekend ahead of
the system. But increase to moderate or high levels in
northwesterlies on Monday. Better probabilities for gusty
southwesterlies exist for saginaw bay, far southern huron, lake st.

Clair, and western lake erie ahead of the front later Saturday night
and Sunday.

There is also the possibility of heavy rain with thunderstorms over
southern portions lake huron southward to western lake erie late
Sunday afternoon to Monday morning.

Hydrology...

a slow moving cold front combined with a region of relatively high
moisture content that will lift into the region within the pre
frontal southwest flow will provide increasing chances for rain late
Saturday night through Sunday night. Total rainfall amounts between
a half inch and an inch are highly probable. The pattern is also one
that will be conducive to supportive locally heavy rainfall.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Kk sf
marine... ... .05
hydrology... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 11 mi57 min 74°F 1020.4 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 13 mi57 min S 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 1020.3 hPa65°F
AGCM4 14 mi57 min 71°F 61°F1020.6 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair 29 mi87 min 72°F 69°F1 ft1019.5 hPa (+0.2)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 32 mi87 min S 4.1 G 6 76°F 1020.7 hPa (+0.7)
PSCM4 42 mi87 min Calm G 0 67°F 1038.9 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI8 mi32 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist68°F62°F83%1021.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI24 mi91 minSSE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F70°F100%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4S5S5S7S7S5CalmS6CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE4SE3SE5SE4SE4CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE6SE7S5S7S9S8SE9SE6SE7S6SE3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE9SE5SE7S8S10SE8SE6SE8SE5SE4SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.