Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 9:10PM Sunday July 12, 2020 8:00 PM EDT (00:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 12:28PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0022.000000t0000z-200710t1945z/ 336 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
.the special marine warning will expire at 345 pm edt... The affected areas were... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... The Thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4293 8245 4289 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4248 8272 4255 8287 4268 8279 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4265 8255 4276 8251 4289 8252 4301 8242 4298 8241 time...mot...loc 1935z 198deg 13kt 4278 8259 4250 8291
LCZ422 Expires:202007101945;;637904 FZUS73 KDTX 101936 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 336 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 LCZ422-460-101945-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair, MI
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location: 42.82, -82.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 122307 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 707 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

AVIATION.

Existing higher coverage of diurnally based VFR cu will transition toward thicker patches of stratocumulus tonight, as low level winds become north-northeasterly and draw moisture southward off lake Huron and northern lower MI. Little evidence yet to suggest a greater coverage of MVFR level cigs will emerge, but will introduce a scattered mention for the morning period. This moisture will lift into another extensive low VFR diurnal cu field on Monday. Winds generally from a northerly direction holding below 10 knots through the daylight period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft through Monday morning. Medium for ceilings near 5000 ft Monday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

DISCUSSION .

Will hold onto the 20 POPs for early this evening as some showers bubbles up near the MI/IN/OH triple point and the decent cu field across northern Lower diving into the Tri Cities and Thumb region. After that still have the flow becoming north-northeast off of Lake Huron with 850 mb/Lake delta T's around 12 to 13C. That in combination of the northern shortwave diving south overnight should be enough to keep the chance of showers near the Lake Huron and have the stratocu spread inland reaching most areas expect the Tri Cities, by daybreak.

That lake cloud should lift into a sct-bkn cumulus field on Monday as the surface high builds into the region. Not too much to argue about guidance temps that will be a few degrees below average on Monday. Diurnal cumulus dissipates Monday night for mostly clear skies however that boundary layer moisture is still in place over SE MI on Tuesday. Expect another sct-bkn cumulus day on Tuesday as it starts to warm with the shortwave upper ridge over Lower MI.

Models continue to trend a little later with the arrival of the next system. The bulk of the showers and storms now expected on Wednesday night with that potent mid level wave. Severe threat looks to be to the south in IL and IN with much better instability and better time to act on that instability. Wednesday looks to be fairly cloudy from both diurnal cu and plenty of debris cloud.

In the wake of that system, may be a linger shower or storm Thursday as the big ridge starts to build. Will continue to keep POPs lower around 20% at best for much of the extended. Models do not have much organized convection, if any, between Thursday morning and next Sunday afternoon on the edge of the big ridge. Highs around 90 on Friday and then low to mid 90s for next weekend.

MARINE .

Weak and broad high pressure will continue to build across the region for the early week period. Weak moisture convergence in northerly flow may promote isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder across the Lake Huron nearshore waters and portions of Saginaw Bay the remainder of today and through tonight, with otherwise dry conditions anticipated through at least early Wednesday. The northerly flow will be gusty at times around 20 knots late this evening into tonight, especially across the open Lake Huron waters and nearshore waters from Port Austin to Port Sanilac where choppy waves of 2-4 feet will also be likely. The short duration of this activity will preclude the mention of a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Winds and waves will then decrease during the day Monday and into Tuesday as lake breeze flow takes over with high pressure overhead.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . RBP MARINE . IRL

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 11 mi42 min 71°F 1009.2 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 13 mi42 min NE 14 G 16 68°F 1009 hPa61°F
AGCM4 14 mi42 min 73°F 73°F1009.5 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair 29 mi60 min N 9.7 G 12 77°F1 ft1007.5 hPa (+0.0)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 32 mi60 min N 9.9 G 13 78°F 1009.1 hPa (+0.3)
PSCM4 42 mi60 min N 15 G 17 67°F 1028.4 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI8 mi63 minNE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F59°F69%1010.2 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI24 mi65 minN 910.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F60°F55%1009.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW4NW5NW4CalmW4W6W8NE10N11
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1 day agoCalmN3CalmNW3CalmNW3NW4NW6NW7NW8NW6NW7NW7NW8W11
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2 days agoCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S5S5S5S6S6
G15
S10SW7S8SE8CalmSE4S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.