Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 122307 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 707 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

AVIATION.

Existing higher coverage of diurnally based VFR cu will transition toward thicker patches of stratocumulus tonight, as low level winds become north-northeasterly and draw moisture southward off lake Huron and northern lower MI. Little evidence yet to suggest a greater coverage of MVFR level cigs will emerge, but will introduce a scattered mention for the morning period. This moisture will lift into another extensive low VFR diurnal cu field on Monday. Winds generally from a northerly direction holding below 10 knots through the daylight period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft through Monday morning. Medium for ceilings near 5000 ft Monday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

DISCUSSION .

Will hold onto the 20 POPs for early this evening as some showers bubbles up near the MI/IN/OH triple point and the decent cu field across northern Lower diving into the Tri Cities and Thumb region. After that still have the flow becoming north-northeast off of Lake Huron with 850 mb/Lake delta T's around 12 to 13C. That in combination of the northern shortwave diving south overnight should be enough to keep the chance of showers near the Lake Huron and have the stratocu spread inland reaching most areas expect the Tri Cities, by daybreak.

That lake cloud should lift into a sct-bkn cumulus field on Monday as the surface high builds into the region. Not too much to argue about guidance temps that will be a few degrees below average on Monday. Diurnal cumulus dissipates Monday night for mostly clear skies however that boundary layer moisture is still in place over SE MI on Tuesday. Expect another sct-bkn cumulus day on Tuesday as it starts to warm with the shortwave upper ridge over Lower MI.

Models continue to trend a little later with the arrival of the next system. The bulk of the showers and storms now expected on Wednesday night with that potent mid level wave. Severe threat looks to be to the south in IL and IN with much better instability and better time to act on that instability. Wednesday looks to be fairly cloudy from both diurnal cu and plenty of debris cloud.

In the wake of that system, may be a linger shower or storm Thursday as the big ridge starts to build. Will continue to keep POPs lower around 20% at best for much of the extended. Models do not have much organized convection, if any, between Thursday morning and next Sunday afternoon on the edge of the big ridge. Highs around 90 on Friday and then low to mid 90s for next weekend.

MARINE .

Weak and broad high pressure will continue to build across the region for the early week period. Weak moisture convergence in northerly flow may promote isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder across the Lake Huron nearshore waters and portions of Saginaw Bay the remainder of today and through tonight, with otherwise dry conditions anticipated through at least early Wednesday. The northerly flow will be gusty at times around 20 knots late this evening into tonight, especially across the open Lake Huron waters and nearshore waters from Port Austin to Port Sanilac where choppy waves of 2-4 feet will also be likely. The short duration of this activity will preclude the mention of a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Winds and waves will then decrease during the day Monday and into Tuesday as lake breeze flow takes over with high pressure overhead.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . RBP MARINE . IRL

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI	11 mi	42 min		71°F			1009.2 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI	13 mi	42 min	NE 14 G 16	68°F			1009 hPa	61°F
AGCM4	14 mi	42 min		73°F	73°F		1009.5 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair	29 mi	60 min	N 9.7 G 12		77°F	1 ft	1007.5 hPa (+0.0)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	32 mi	60 min	N 9.9 G 13	78°F			1009.1 hPa (+0.3)
PSCM4	42 mi	60 min	N 15 G 17	67°F			1028.4 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI

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NE3

E2

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SE1

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NE4

NE10

NE10

NW2 G6

NW3

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NW6

NW6 G11

NW4 G11

N5

NW4 G7

E2 G5

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NE12

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1 day ago

S7

SW4

NW5 G8

SW1

NW4

NW5 G9

NW7 G11

N6 G12

N14 G21

N9 G12

NW8 G12

N11 G18

NW8 G13

NW5 G12

NW14 G18

N8 G17

NW9 G18

NW13 G19

NW13 G22

NW12 G21

NW13 G20

N10 G17

NW11 G21

NE9

2 days ago

N1 G9

NE8

E4

E3

NW3

W10 G14

SE3

SE4

S4

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S6

S6 G9

S6 G9

S6 G9

S10 G13

SW9 G12

S10

S9 G13

N4 G10

NW6 G12

SW4 G8

E8 G12

SE4

S6

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI	8 mi	63 min	NE 8	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	70°F	59°F	69%	1010.2 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI	24 mi	65 min	N 9	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	78°F	60°F	55%	1009.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)

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NE4

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

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NW3

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Calm

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W6

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N11 G14

N7

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1 day ago

Calm

N3

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NW3

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NW6

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NW6

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NW7

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W11 G17

NW10 G14

NW10 G15

NW10 G20

NW11 G17

NW8 G16

NW8 G18

NW7

NW10 G18

NW6

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Calm

NE4

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SE4

S5

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S6

S6 G15

S10

SW7

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SE8

Calm

SE4

S4

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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