Saturday, January23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 5:32PM Saturday January 23, 2021 1:15 PM EST (18:15 UTC) Moonrise 1:13PMMoonset 3:25AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0053.000000t0000z-201023t2100z/ 453 Pm Edt Fri Oct 23 2020
.the special marine warning will expire at 500 pm edt... The affected areas were... NEarshore and open waters from port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... The Thunderstorms over the southern lake huron have moved into the canadian waters and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Strong Thunderstorms crossing the st. Clair river will exit east a little after 5 pm, Thus the special marine waters will be allowed to expire. Lat...lon 4300 8242 4296 8242 4292 8246 4282 8248 4276 8247 4262 8252 4263 8257 4276 8251 4284 8251 4301 8246 4311 8250 4313 8248 4323 8251 4343 8253 4343 8220 time...mot...loc 2051z 225deg 47kt 4385 8192 4360 8219 4340 8237
LCZ422 Expires:202010232101;;729012 FZUS73 KDTX 232053 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 453 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 LCZ422-LHZ443-464-232101-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair, MI
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location: 42.82, -82.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 231744 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1244 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

AVIATION.

High pressure continues to move across the northern Ohio Valley early this afternoon, with northern extent reaching into the airspace and allowing for mainly clear skies with the exception of lingering stratocu at KMBS and KFNT, which has occasionally dipped MVFR at times. Sky attempts to stay mainly clear into the early evening hours before mid/high clouds fill in from the southwest ahead of approaching upper wave that will bring a round of periodic light snow late in the TAF period Sunday after 12z. West/northwest winds 5-10 knots will trend variable overnight for a time before reorienting out of the southeast Sunday.

For DTW . Light snow looks to hold off until after 12z Sunday as southern wing of moisture ascent will take some time to overcome near-surface dry air. Potential will exist for some intervals of MVFR snow towards the end of the period, but confidence not there to include mention at this time.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low in ceilings below 5000 feet after 12z Sunday.

* High in ptype as snow after 12z Sunday

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 358 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

DISCUSSION .

Overnight stratus has held on nicely through the early parts of the morning, with rapid erosion of cloud cover now noted via infrared across the Grand Rapids region as mid-level subsidence ahead of surface high pressure currently located over the Midwest. Expecting the continued erosion of stratus to take place (south of the thumb) as high pressure continues to work east into the Ohio Valley by this afternoon. After a very cold start to the morning marked by overnight lows in the teens and wind chills in the single digits, a modest warm up into the mid to upper 20s is expected later today along with some sunshine. As the high pressure tracks east through the evening, low-level flow will back from northwest to southwest. This will usher in low and mid level clouds across the state and will keep overnight lows slightly warmer, holding in the upper teens to lower 20s.

The next chance for light accumulating snowfall will then expand across Michigan throughout Sunday morning (after 6 AM EST) as weak system relative isentropic ascent takes place behind the departing high pressure system. Saturation will initially occur in the mid- levels on the 296-203K surfaces and will have to overcome some initial low level dry air. As the column saturates, expecting light snow to fill on across the state, with slightly better forcing noted across Flint up into the Tri Cities, where likely PoPs hold. Expecting around an inch of accumulation through the early afternoon in and around the Tri Cities, with totals holding under an inch elsewhere (half inch or under for northern Metro region south). Area of best isentropic ascent will then slide into the Thumb during the later part of the afternoon, with snow chances diminishing by the late evening.

Water vapor imagery shows one of the main features of interest for this forecast package, a pv feature just off the coast of California, set to pivot south across Baja California late in the day before ejecting east into TX/OK by early Monday morning. This will result in the development of a low pressure system interacting with a baroclinic zone, set to track north into the Ohio Valley between 00Z Tue - 12Z Tue. Plentiful moisture will eject north across the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes ahead of the low pressure system and will bring the likely chance to see accumulating snowfall for portions of SE MI starting late Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Predictability of where the heaviest axis of snowfall (potential for 4+ inches) will fall remains low given it will remain sensitive to both the track of the low and trowal/deformation dynamics. WPC cluster phase space analysis shows the most likely location the axis will fall will be somewhere across southern lower Michigan or south into the northern Ohio Valley. As a result, preliminary forecasted snowfall totals of 3-5 inches will hold over the Metro region down to the Ohio border, with gradually decreasing totals north of this heavier forecasted area. Additional adjustments will be needed as the PV feature comes onshore and is better sampled by the NWS upper-air stations in the coming days.

Last, snow chances are expected to taper off later in the day on Tuesday with high pressure filling in from north to south through the midweek period. This will minimize precipitation chances to end the week while temperature trends remain seasonable.

MARINE .

Northwest winds still gusting up around 25 knots over Lake Huron will gradually diminish today, along with the snow showers. Still, the larger waves over the southern Lake Huron will lag with the unstable near surface profiles. Small craft advisories continue through 11 am for the northern/eastern tip of the Thumb region.

Light and variable winds set up this evening as a ridge of high pressure slides through tonight.

Light southerly flow expected on Sunday as weak low pressure tracks through the northern Great Lakes through Sunday night. A period of light warm advection snow likely in this time frame, but visibility's probably remaining at or above 2 miles.

A much stronger low will lift into the Ohio Valley late Monday, and will lead to increasing east-northeast/onshore flow (up around 25 knots), and small craft advisories may be needed by Monday evening and continued into Tuesday. Snow will likely overspread Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair, and possibly as far north as southern third of lake Huron.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . IRL DISCUSSION . AM MARINE . SC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 11 mi46 min 25°F 1026.4 hPa
AGCM4 14 mi46 min 24°F 36°F1027.5 hPa
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 32 mi76 min WNW 5.1 G 11 22°F 1029.1 hPa (+1.0)
PSCM4 42 mi76 min WNW 8 G 13 21°F 1045.7 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI8 mi21 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast23°F10°F58%1027.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW7SW6SW5SW4SW5W9
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2 days agoSW7
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SW6SW6SW7SW6S6S5S6SW6S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.