Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mariaville Lake, NY

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:24PM Monday December 16, 2019 2:18 AM EST (07:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:15PMMoonset 12:04PM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mariaville Lake, NY
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location: 42.83, -74.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 160540 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1240 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. Gusty winds and colder temperatures will affect the region through tonight. High pressure will be over the region on Monday, providing dry and seasonably cold conditions. Another storm system approaching from the south and west is expected to bring snow and or a wintry mix to the region late Monday night through Tuesday. The best chance for a wintry mix will be for areas south of Albany.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Snow shower activity diminishing but still enough to keep slight chances in the western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie valley, Helderbergs and into parts of the eastern Catskills, Taconics and southern Berkshires. Snow showers will dissipate by daybreak and any snow accumulations will be a dusting at best. Mostly clear elsewhere. Winds will continue to diminish to light through daybreak. Lows in the teens to lower 20s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Monday will be a dry and seasonable cold day, as high pressure gradually moves eastward across the region. Cloud cover should generally be limited to areas south of Albany, closer to where a frontal boundary will be setting up over the mid Atlantic region. Most sources of guidance have trended towards any precip holding off until Monday night, so will mention dry conditions into the evening.

The next storm system will then affect the region late Monday night through Tuesday. This system looks to be quite progressive due to an open wave positively tilted trough aloft. Model guidance still not converging with respect to QPF and how far north the warm nose aloft will get. The surface cyclone is expected to track south of our region. There will be enough cold air in place through the depth of the column for precip to begin as snow across the entire area. The first change from the previous forecast was to delay the onset of snow, developing across areas south of Albany after midnight and closer to 4-8 AM from around Albany northward. The snow will generally begin from south to north, as isentropic lift increases. Many sources of guidance indicating a warm nose aloft moving in across southern areas by early Tuesday morning. The main questions with the thermal profile area how far north this warm nose will get and the magnitude resulting in more sleet or freezing rain. Will favor the NAM/ECMWF thermal profile for this forecast. However, there is overall low confidence in the guidance with regards to precip type, especially for areas south of Albany. So for now will mention a mix of snow, sleet south of Albany, with possible freezing rain across parts of Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield counties by Tuesday morning. Regardless of exact precip type, the Tuesday morning commute will likely be affected by snow and/or a mix across much of the area, causing slippery travel conditions.

With regards to QPF and resulting snow accumulations, this appears to be an Advisory level event. There are still some significant QPF discrepancies between the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/NAM, with the GFS indicating the most and the ECMWF the least. The NAM is in the middle. Had to take a blended approach, using WPC QPF as a starting point. Snow ratios do not look overly high with this system, as investigating of forecast soundings from the NAM indicate the dendritic growth zone to be displaced above the maximum omega. This should limit accumulations. The probabilistic snowfall forecast upper range (90th percentile) is only around 5 inches, thus the expectation of Advisory level snow. We are forecasting between 2-5 inches of snow from around Albany northward. Some ice will also be possible across southern areas where snowfall totals are only expected to be around 1-3 inches. Surface temperatures on Tuesday should remain below freezing for much of the area, maybe warming into the mid 30s for valley locations south of Albany.

The snow should end fairly quickly by early Tuesday evening, possibly even just prior to much of the evening commute. Most sources of guidance indicating snow tapering off rather fast as the wave tracks out to sea. A few snow showers will be possible mainly over the higher terrain Tuesday night, but most areas will be dry.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The long term forecast will begin with snow showers and squalls on Wednesday, then mainly dry and cold conditions through the remainder of the period.

A strong upper-level low will sweep across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Wednesday. This will also drag a surface low and arctic cold front through the region at this time. Strong dynamics and steep lapse rates with this system will lead to scattered snow showers and squalls across much of the area. Within any of these squalls, strong winds and reduced visibilities are likely. A light accumulation of snow will be possible for all locations with perhaps the highest amounts in the Adirondacks.

In the wake of the arctic front, temperatures Wednesday night will tumble and a northwesterly flow of air will set up lake- effect snow showers across parts of the Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and Catskills. 850 hPa temperatures fall below -20 C, which in turn will lead to overnight lows below zero across the Adirondacks and the single digits elsewhere. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder.

High pressure from Canada will slowly build across the area Thursday through Saturday. Any lake-effect snow showers will gradually come to an end as drier air filters into the region. Despite some sunshine, highs in most locations will not reach 20 F on Thursday. It will remain windy on Thursday as well. Winds will lighten up for Friday and Saturday. Highs will range from the teens in the Adirondacks to the 20s elsewhere on Friday to the 20s and lower 30s by Saturday.

There remains little model consistency as to if a storm will affect the region by the end of next weekend. The 12 UTC model guidance has backed off on any phasing of a system across the Great Lakes and another system across the southeastern United States. For now, will maintain nothing more than slight chance pops at this time.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Snow showers continue to diminish early this morning with VFR conditions prevailing across all TAF sites. This will lead to a dry day today with continued VFR conditions. Mid and high level clouds will spread into the region throughout the day ahead of the upcoming winter storm system.

West winds will gradually diminish through the overnight period and into the daytime hours. Although, gusts up to 25 kts will still be possible at KALB/KPSF for at least the next few hours.

Outlook .

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY. There are still river flood warnings in effect at Falls Village and Gaylordsville along the Housatonic. River levels are cresting and are expected to fall below flood stage on Monday.

Another storm system will bring snow and or a wintry mix to the region, with bitter arctic cold expected from the middle of next week through at least the end of the work week. With colder air in place and primarily frozen precip expected, no additional flooding is anticipated. Ice will build on some bodies of water by later this week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . JPV NEAR TERM . NAS SHORT TERM . JPV LONG TERM . Rathbun AVIATION . JLV HYDROLOGY . JPV


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 57 mi49 min Calm 29°F 1021 hPa20°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY15 mi28 minWNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy26°F12°F55%1022.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSCH

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE3------------------N4CalmN7NE3NE3CalmE5E3E3CalmW5--S3NW8
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2 days agoS5------------------N4N5NW3NW3NW3SE3E6E4E4NE3NE4NE4NE4NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:35 AM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:55 AM EST     4.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:01 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:38 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:08 PM EST     5.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.5-0.1-0.20.82.23.44.14.33.92.91.810.60.20.112.64.155.45.24.32.9

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Mon -- 02:25 AM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:47 AM EST     4.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:01 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:28 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:00 PM EST     5.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.4-0.2-0.112.53.64.14.23.82.81.60.90.50.20.21.22.84.35.15.45.14.12.7

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.