Tuesday, August4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 9:02PM Tuesday August 4, 2020 9:34 AM EDT (13:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:06PMMoonset 6:25AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Expires:202008041515;;908671 Fzus63 Kmkx 040809 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 309 Am Cdt Tue Aug 4 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Lake michigan will remain in a north to northeasterly wind regime today due to high pressure of 30.2 inches over southern canada and weak low pressure of 29.9 inches over the eastern great lakes. The winds and resultant wave heights will gradually decrease as the high pressure ridge edges closer today. Lighter winds are then expected through mid-week under the high. Winds turn to the south and increase as the high shifts east and a low pressure of 29.8 inches moves into the central plains. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-041515- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 309 am cdt Tue aug 4 2020 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Today..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers this morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight, then becoming northwest 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 kt backing to southwest. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ874


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 040957 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 557 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

- Showers remain possible through today

- Quiet and mild weather Wednesday through Saturday

- Warmer with chances for showers/storms Sunday-Monday

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Monday) Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

-- Showers remain possible through today --

A few light showers are persisting over the heart of the area early this morning. These showers are likely the result of the combination of the large scale forcing overhead ahead of the incoming upper trough, and the low level NE flow bringing some lake instability inland from Lake Huron.

This upper low/trough is expected to progress through the region through today, and be exiting the eastern portion of the area toward 00z this evening. The low and associated cold pool aloft will lead to some light showers developing with the heating of the day. Thunder chances look almost zero with the sufficient instability expected to stay just east of the area. The showers should dissipate toward 00z as the low moves out, and we lose the diurnal heating/instability.

-- Quiet and mild weather Wednesday through Saturday --

Wednesday looks like it should be quiet across the area. The area will be under the influence of ridging in between the departing low to our east, and the next short wave dropping SE over the region. This short wave will arrive on Thursday. However, it will be coming in just after a dry period with high pressure having been in control. Moisture will be quite limited with no influx of moisture expected. Sprinkles look to be about the extent of any possible precipitation.

The trough on Thursday will move out, and upper ridging will take control of the weather for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will gradually warm a little each day as return flow on the backside of the sfc ridge will gradually bring in a little warmer temperatures.

-- Warmer with chances for showers/storms Sunday-Monday --

Rain chances will then slowly increase on Sunday, and probably peaking early Monday. Heights will build a little more toward the area, and a warm front will be trying to nose overhead. This will bring the instability axis closer, along with the forcing from the warm front. Temperatures will also increase a bit more as the area of warmth from the Plains moves in.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 554 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Quite a bit of IFR across Lower Michigan this morning. It's going to take several hours for cigs to lift due to the persistent upper trough overhead. Local radar also shows a few light showers east of US-131. MKG should remain VFR today and the other sites will eventually rise to VFR this afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Our main marine concerns will be found in the first 12 hours or so of the forecast. These concerns include Small Craft Advisory conditions, Beach Hazards, and waterspout potential. Winds and waves are not a big problem early this morning with winds being offshore. They are expected to ramp up some this afternoon as the flow becomes onshore. This will not be the ideal beach day with the cool air temps and clouds, along with the lakeshore water temps having plummeted.

Waterspouts also remain possible into the afternoon, before the threat comes to an end this evening. The weather pattern is quite favorable with the upper low and cold pool of temps aloft moving over the generally warm lake water temps. As the low moves out of the area this evening, the threat will come to an end.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ037-043-050- 056-064-071.

LM . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . NJJ DISCUSSION . NJJ AVIATION . 04 MARINE . NJJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45029 19 mi24 min N 5.8 G 5.8 55°F 53°F2 ft1017.4 hPa50°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi52 min N 8 G 8.9 51°F 52°F1016.7 hPa50°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 24 mi34 min NNE 14 G 18 64°F 71°F1017.6 hPa57°F
45161 28 mi34 min N 1.9 G 3.9 53°F 50°F1 ft1017.3 hPa (+0.4)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi24 min NE 7 G 8.9 60°F 1017.3 hPa55°F
45168 34 mi24 min NNW 9.7 G 12 58°F 57°F2 ft1017.4 hPa52°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi34 min N 11 G 12 57°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi34 min NNE 9.9 G 15 61°F 1017.9 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi41 minVar 610.00 miFair62°F52°F70%1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIV

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE43NW5NW8N8W8NW8NW6
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5N8NE6NE5NE6N6N43N56
1 day agoNW6654W6SW5W6W6W6W6W6W3CalmW3CalmCalmNE3NE3N5NE3N4N4N5NE4
2 days agoE64E3CalmE634E4NE3N7N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3N4N3CalmW3NW3NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.