Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 8:42PM Monday August 19, 2019 10:45 PM EDT (02:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:58PMMoonset 9:42AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Expires:201908200915;;492595 Fzus63 Kmkx 200134 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 834 Pm Cdt Mon Aug 19 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. High pressure of 30.0 inches will continue to track slowly east across the western great lakes tonight into Tuesday. This will result in lighter winds lingering into early Tuesday. South to southwest winds will increase across the lake on Tuesday as the high pulls away and low pressure of 29.8 inches moves over minnesota. The low will move across the lake Tuesday night dragging a cold front through the area. Gusty north winds are expected on Wednesday behind the front. Canadian high pressure of 30.2 inches will then settle over the great lakes by Thursday. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-200915- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 834 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt veering to west 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ874


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 200001
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
801 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 330 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
- best chance for showers storms the next 7 days is tues
afternoon evening.

- isolated shower or storm possible this evening and again late
tonight.

- mainly dry weather expected from Wednesday evening through the
weekend.

- cooler weather settling in for the end of the week.

Discussion (this evening through next Monday)
issued at 330 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
instability continues to creep up this afternoon across the south,
where goes-16 satellite imagery shows moderate to towering cumulus.

We have maintained isolated (20 pct) chances for a shower or storm.

Confidence is not high in this occurring, but the MAX reflectivity
via the href ensemble does show the potential for a few showers or
storms.

Tonight, the main concern will be the reformation of some stratus
and fog. Model data suggests that the south (south of i-96) is most
prone to the fog stratus. Potential exists for some dense fog
towards btl and jxn.

Models show the chance for scattered showers and storms late tonight
across the southern half of the forecast area in a zone of moisture
transport. Not thinking this is a big threat and have opted to stay
dry along with neighboring offices for now. The main show will be
off to our west where a MCS is expected across the state of iowa.

The best chance for precipitation in the next 7 days will come
Tuesday afternoon and evening. The showers and storms tomorrow will
be forced by a shortwave dropping into the area from the northwest
that will be aided by the convective vort likely moving east out of
iowa early in the day. We are expecting an uptick in convection
during the afternoon. Wind fields and therefore shear is on the
light weak side. This could change if the convective vort out of
iowa pushes more east toward our area instead of southeast.

Instability is greater tomorrow with MUCAPE values likely eclipsing
2000 j kg. Any severe weather would be isolated and confined to core
collapses. Again, if the MCV (mesoscale convective vort) moves more
into our area the severe chances will increase.

Some small chances for precipitation will linger into Tuesday night
and Wednesday along and ahead of the cold front. Otherwise, dry
weather is expected Wednesday night through Sunday and potentially
Monday.

Temperatures cool behind the cold front with highs back into the 70s
for Thursday through Saturday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 800 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
a few isolated showers will be in the vicinity of btl lan jxn
through sunset, but the main concern (again) is the late night
fog and stratus potential - where and how dense widespread.

The old sfc frontal boundary is stalled near the mi in border
and the highest sfc dew pts are near the i-94 corridor. Best
chance of fog therefore seems to be at the azo btl jxn terminals
again and will have ifr or lower conditions for a few hours late
tonight and early Tuesday. Farther north at grr and lan went with
a few hours of MVFR.

After fog stratus lifts on Tuesday morning,VFR returns but a few
showers may develop after 18z. Can't rule out a TSTM either,
especially south and east of grr, but was not confident enough to
put that in the tafs yet.

Marine
Issued at 330 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
a light wind regime will bring quiet conditions out on the big lake
from the current time through Tuesday night. A weak pressure
gradient will be in place during this time frame. The next time
frame of concern will be on Wednesday when we will likely have north
winds increasing behind a cold front. This is the typical scenario
(advancing high from the northern plains) where our waves over
perform. The namnest normally does the best in these situations and
the glerl model ran off these winds is indicating the potential for
3-5 footers during the afternoon and evening (working south with
time down the shore). No headlines at this point. We will be
monitoring.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Duke
discussion... Duke
aviation... Meade
marine... Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45029 19 mi35 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 73°F 73°F1 ft1016.2 hPa68°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi63 min N 2.9 G 4.1 74°F 1016 hPa68°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 24 mi35 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 74°F 75°F1016.5 hPa69°F
45161 28 mi45 min E 1.9 G 1.9 72°F 72°F1016.4 hPa (-0.2)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi35 min E 4.1 G 4.1 71°F 1016 hPa67°F
45168 34 mi35 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 76°F 75°F1 ft1016.1 hPa68°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi45 min ENE 6 G 6 77°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi45 min E 1 G 4.1 77°F 1016.9 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miOvercast77°F69°F77%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIV

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmSE4SE4Calm--W5SW7W76W7W5NW4CalmCalm
1 day agoS3SE3CalmS3CalmSE3S3S4SE6SE5S10S9
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2 days agoS11
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--CalmW4SW4CalmCalmCalmS4SE3W5W8W9W6W7SW6--3CalmW7NW3CalmCalmE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.