Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:04AMSunset 5:12PM Thursday December 12, 2019 11:43 PM EST (04:43 UTC) Moonrise 5:50PMMoonset 8:26AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Expires:201912131030;;267949 Fzus63 Kmkx 130316 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 916 Pm Cst Thu Dec 12 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure of 30.0 inches will remain over far northern lake michigan tonight and Friday. The winds will continue to diminish through the night. The light winds will continue through Friday. Strengthening low pressure will track north along the eastern seaboard into new england from Friday night through Saturday night. Meanwhile, high pressure of 30.3 inches will move from saskatchewan and manitoba into wisconsin by Sunday. Elevated northwest winds will develop for Saturday night into Sunday morning, then weakening. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-131030- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 916 pm cst Thu dec 12 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 25 to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of light freezing rain, patchy drizzle and light freezing drizzle late this evening. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south 5 to 10 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 kt veering to west. Chance of drizzle overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of drizzle in the morning, then chance of drizzle and light freezing drizzle in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of snow and drizzle in the evening. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
LMZ874


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 122351 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 651 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

- Some light snow and freezing drizzle possible tonight Central Lower

- Lake effect snow potential Saturday night into Sunday

- Low pressure system Monday night into Tuesday mainly misses us to the south

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

A warm air advection precipitation event is expected across Central Lower Michigan tonight. Some light accumulations of snow are expected up along U.S. 10 where an inch or two of snow is certainly possible. It would not be out of the question to see a few reports around 3 inches by Friday morning up near Baldwin and Reed City. Temperatures are forecast to be marginal for freezing precipitation with many areas transitioning to some light rain or drizzle overnight with temperatures above freezing in most areas. There is a chance for some freezing drizzle, especially across interior Central Lower Michigan from roughly Reed City to the east towards Clare and Harrison. At this time there is not enough confidence to issue a Winter Weather Advisory as we feel precipitation amounts will be light and road/air temperatures will be marginal. We will be monitoring trends though through the evening and overnight and update forecasts as necessary.

The next item of note is some lake effect snow that gets going Saturday night into Sunday. Moisture depth with this evening looks limited once again especially Saturday night. The better chances for accumulating snow may come on Sunday where the DGZ begins to become saturated. Some light accumulations of an inch or two are certainly possible towards Lake Michigan.

On Monday night into Tuesday an area of low pressure is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley into New England by the deterministic models. This is not a favorable track for the GRR forecast area for heavy snow. For heavy snow we would want to see the low track a bit further to the north. The ensemble members in the Euro show the same thinking with many members showing little to no snow at our further southeast point at Jackson. There are a few members showing amounts around 4 inches there. Most other locations would see little to no snow even with Jackson getting 4 if that occurred. The feeling right now is the track is not conducive for a heavy snow swath into our area at this time, but we are monitoring. Also of note, the depth of the low is not too significant, moving by the Great Lakes above 1000mb's. Plenty of time to watch this system, but it appears the trend as been a little further to the south with time.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 651 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

VFR conditions this evening with some areas of light snow or rain near MKG, GRR and LAN. South winds will gust to 20 knots at times this evening then decrease to 10 knots or less after midnight. There will be LLWS through the evening.

MARINE. Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Core of the strongest winds are moving through the area as of mid afternoon. At 2,000ft to 3,000ft a core of 50-60 knots of wind is moving through from west to east between this afternoon and about 1000pm this evening. These winds are beginning to mix down over Lake Michigan, with Big Sable Point touching gales in the last couple of hours. We issued a Gale Warning a bit earlier this afternoon from Holland to the north. South of Holland a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Waves will fall below SCA criteria towards Friday morning. Once the Gale Warning ends, we will need to reissue the SCA for the northern four zones, north of Holland.

A Lakeshore Flood Advisory remains in effect until 7am Friday, but the worst of conditions will be this afternoon and evening in the height of the winds and waves.

The next wave event will come Saturday night into Sunday in northwest flow cold air advection. 4 to 7 footers are expected in this event.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

The amount of water in our rivers will continue to trend down over the coming days. The Maple River at Maple Rapids is still above flood stage, but is also safely trending lower. The bigger impact over the last 24 hours has been the start of ice freeze up processes on some of our rivers, specifically parts of the Muskegon River and the White River. A small ice jam has formed south of Big Rapids, as the near-zero temperatures overnight caused rapid ice growth. With warmer temperatures now moving into the area for the next several days, river levels should resume a downward trend in this area.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for MIZ037-043- 050-056.

LM . Gale Warning until 3 AM EST Friday for LMZ846>849.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LMZ844-845.



SYNOPSIS . Duke DISCUSSION . Duke AVIATION . Ostuno HYDROLOGY . AMD MARINE . Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi61 min S 19 G 22 40°F 35°F1017.2 hPa31°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi43 min SW 27 G 30 40°F 1018.2 hPa (-1.0)33°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi43 min S 14 G 16 41°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi43 min S 6 G 12 39°F 1019 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi50 minSSW 910.00 miOvercast39°F28°F65%1018.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIV

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S6S6S8SE5S9SE7SE9SE9SE11SE13SE13S12S11S17
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2 days agoW16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.