Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:34 AM

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LMZ874 Expires:202404271530;;451844 Fzus63 Kmkx 270805 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 305 am cdt Sat apr 27 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
low pressure around 29.3 inches over southern minnesota continues to drift northeastward this morning, reaching lake superior around noon today. Gusty south winds are expected across lake michigan today, with a few gusts approaching gale force, especially in the northern half of the lake. Winds will then become light and northeasterly tonight into Sunday morning as the low exits and a weak cold front drapes across central portions of the lake. Sunday into Sunday night, winds will become breezy and southerly south of the front and will become breezy and easterly to northeasterly north of the front.
a few Thunderstorms are expected to cross southern lake michigan early this morning. Additional rounds of showers and Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through Sunday. A few storms this afternoon and evening could produce locally gusty winds and hail.

lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-271530- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 305 am cdt Sat apr 27 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Today - South winds to 30 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft. Tonight - South winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Rain showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Rain showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Monday - South winds 15 to 25 kt. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.Monday night - Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west 10 to 15 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Tuesday - West winds 10 to 15 kt backing to south 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 270755 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 355 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight Risk for Storms This Evening and Tonight

- Scattered Showers and Storms into Sunday Evening

- Chances for rain almost every forecast period Sun Night through Fri

- Continued warm right through the upcoming work week

DISCUSSION
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

- Slight Risk for Storms This Evening and Tonight

Michigan sits in the warm sector of a surface low currently centered over northwest Iowa / southeast Minnesota. As that low traverses northeast into Lake Superior today, scattered showers and storms will move through the area. A patch of these warm sector showers is currently traveling northeast from IL/IN into southern MI this morning. Elevated instability will increase through the morning, so some rumbles of thunder are possible.

Better chances for strong to severe storms exist later this evening and overnight as a cold front moves in from the northwest.
Surface heating builds instability throughout the day with HRRR MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg and bulk shear near 35 to 40 knots. Low- level convergence will focus storm initiation near the surface boundary near and north of a line from Muskegon to Clare. SPC maintains a Slight Risk for that area today, with Marginal to the southeast. Main timing for the strong to severe storms will be from 8pm to about 2am with wind and hail as the primary storm threats.

- Scattered Showers and Storms into Sunday Evening

Active weather will continue into Sunday, though the risk for severe weather is low. Another upper low will eject out of the Southern Plains with its associated surface low moving into the region Sunday. We remain in the warm sector of this surface low with HRRR MUCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg by the afternoon. So expect continued showery conditions with some weak storms. HRRR probability-matched mean total QPF by Sunday evening pushes 1 to 1.75 inches for areas north of a line from Muskegon to Saginaw.

- Chances for rain almost every forecast period Sun Night through Fri

The saying about "April Showers" will be very applicable to our forecast over the next 7 days despite crossing into the month of May. Chances for precipitation will be in the forecast each 12 hour forecast period through Friday with the exception of Tuesday.

The system affecting our weather this weekend will exit the area to the east on Monday into Monday night. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist Sunday night through Monday night. Sunday night a warm front will be slowly lifting northward. Monday we will be positioned in the warm sector of the weakening system and Monday night the cold front goes east. Looking at ECMWF and GFS ensemble member plots of CAPE it is clear to see that deep moisture remains resulting in CAPE in every ensemble member. Showers and storms are in the forecast each of these 3 forecast periods. Lack of upper support in terms of a significant shortwave will likely limit and severe potential, but strength of the low level jet (30-45 knots)
suggest we will need to monitor. As of now, the SPC has us in general thunder for Sunday night through Monday night.

One dry forecast period on Tuesday with ridging moving through the Great Lakes will be short lived as rain chances reappear Tuesday night. Tuesday night a cold front moves in associated with a shortwave aloft off to our northwest. Thursday a warm front will try to push in from the south with a low remaining in the area then towards Friday.

- Continued warm right through the upcoming work week

GFS and ECMWF MOS guidance shows highs in Grand Rapids in the 70s Monday through Friday. 850mb temperatures are supportive of the warm weather theme as well with +8C to +14C in place much of the time.
Normal highs are in the low 60s this time of year so we will be at least 10 degrees above seasonal normals. Bottom line to the forecast is warm and showery through the period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A warm front stretches from Iowa southeastward into Northern Illinois and Southern Indiana at 06Z. The front will steadily work its way north and east through Southwest Lower Michigan today. Typical weather associated with a warm frontal passage in the spring can be expected...namely rain showers, embedded thunderstorms and lower ceilings.

Lower ceilings will press into the TAF sites towards daybreak, with MVFR conditions prevailing by 14Z-15Z. Showers will be likely in the 08Z to 14Z time frame with some occasional thunderstorm activity mixed in as well.

The MVFR conditions should try to lift out in the afternoon as we surge into the warm sector of the system. Another round of storms appears likely after 00Z, but much of this activity should remain north of the TAF sites through 06Z Sun.

Winds will veer from southeast to southwest today with the passage of the warm front. Wind gusts may eclipse 30 knots this afternoon from the southwest.

MARINE
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Hazardous conditions will continue through tonight as southwest winds quickly build this morning. Southwest winds to 20-25 knots are expected with gusts pushing 30 knots. Areas of fog may develop tonight through Monday as warm moist air with higher dew points in the mid to upper 50s moves into the region. This warm moist air over cold water will result in fog, though strong surface wind may help lift inversion heights and disperse fog.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849.

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